Boiler Room: The Official Stock Market Discussion

Bernie Madoff

Banned
Joined
Jun 23, 2012
Messages
11,925
Reputation
-2,414
Daps
18,686
Reppin
Otisville, Federal Correctional Institution
Achn finished up 10% this week. Now up around 20% the last two weeks.
Next play is dvax April 19 2014 .50 $1 calls
52 week high low
0.98-5.00
Currently trading at 1.26. Great value here as the strike price is just around the low so the risk is minimal IMO. So why is the stock off its high and so close to the low?
News from 5/9/12
What: Shareholders of biopharmaceutical companyDynavax (Nasdaq: DVAX ) are having a no good, very bad day as its stock is down 23% following the announcement of a secondary offering.

So what: Choosing to market its hepatitis B drug Heplisav independently means Dynavax needs cash. Today it took its money-raising efforts to the market in the form of a 17.5 million share offering that priced at $4.25 -- a clean 17% below yesterday's closing price. If that wasn't enough of a beating for shareholders, CEO Dino Dina, who has helmed the ship since 1998, noted that he would be stepping down. The market doesn't like uncertainty, and today we're getting a three-course meal of it.

So the stock went down because of the public offering but if you look at the reason for that being the fact that they want to distribute,rather than let someone else cut into the profits that leads to a bigger potential upside.

That wasn't the only reason the stock went down to where it is now though. The stock trended down from that point and pretty much stayed at the 2.30-2.80 range until 6/10/13
When...http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=DVAX&d=9&e=19&f=2013&g=d&a=1&b=19&c=2004&z=66&y=66
 

Bernie Madoff

Banned
Joined
Jun 23, 2012
Messages
11,925
Reputation
-2,414
Daps
18,686
Reppin
Otisville, Federal Correctional Institution
Before the opening bell this morning, Dynavax (DVAX) reported feedback from the company's meeting with the FDA. This followed the receipt of a complete response letter (CRL) last February regarding its biologic license application (BLA) for Heplisav, the company's revolutionary and highly effective vaccine for hepatitis B. According to the press release, the meeting with the FDA resulted in the following "messages":

  • The safety database does indeed need additional subjects;
    • VRBPAC's strong endorsement of HEPLISAV's demonstrated immunogenicity was acknowledged;
    • Analyzing the benefit/risk of HEPLISAV's use in discrete patient populations did not fundamentally address the shortfall in the safety database. It was concluded that to do so would unnecessarily restrict the patient population that could benefit from HEPLISAV's approval;
    • The additional safety data collected would facilitate review for an indication in adults 18-70 years of age.
    Eddie Gray, Dynavax's new Chief Executive Officer (who only 4 months ago took over responsibility for the company) provided some clarity on the meeting with the FDA through his prepared remarks as well as through his answers to analyst questions. (You can listen to the call here.) Most questions centered on the additional clinical trial that would be required to address the FDA's concerns regarding safety. Here, Gray indicated discussions with the agency were consistent with what had previously been raised in the Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) advisory committee meeting held in November last year. At that time, though a post-approval trial involving 30,000 patients was discussed during the advisory committee meeting - a number the FDA appeared to acknowledge this month as perhaps not being feasible (the company had first proposed 5,000 in its submission last year) - a more reasonable number on the order of 10,000 patients was hinted at being more plausible. Regardless, given that the company had yet to develop the protocols for such a safety trial, it was premature to discuss such numbers, according to Gray.
    Note, by the way, that in the FDA briefing documents for the November 15, 2012, advisory committee meeting, the FDA stated: "HEPLISAV has a favorable benefit/risk profile for the vaccination of adults at risk for hepatitis B infection." [p. 90 of 144] And: "The safety profile of HEPLISAV was similar to that of Engerix-B with respect to [adverse effects] AEs." [p. 92 of 144] Engerix-B is GlaxoSmithKline's (GSK) treatment for Hep-B which was used in the comparator arm of the Heplisav trials. So, let us be clear: nothing the FDA has seen says Heplisav presents a greater risk to patients than does the current standard of care. What the agency wants is additional safety data upon which to base approval.

 

Bernie Madoff

Banned
Joined
Jun 23, 2012
Messages
11,925
Reputation
-2,414
Daps
18,686
Reppin
Otisville, Federal Correctional Institution
So if its been trading sideways so long why the buy now?
If you take a look at the chart for Dynavax Technologies, you'll notice that this stock has been trending inside of a big range for the last three months and change, with shares moving between $1.10 on the downside and $1.46 on the upside. This large consolidation pattern for DVAX could mean that this stock is under accumulation by the bulls, since the bears have been unable to push the stock out of this range and take it to new lows. Shares of DVAX are now starting to spike back above its 50-day moving average of $1.25 a share with decent upside volume. Volume so far on Thursday has already registered 1.6 million shares versus its three-month average action or 1.81 million shares. This move is starting to push DVAX within range of triggering a major breakout trade.

Market players should now look for long-biased trades in DVAX if it manages to break out above some key overhead resistance levels at $1.29 to $1.32 a share, and then once it takes out more resistance at $1.46 to $1.50 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above those levels with volume that registers near or above its three-month average action of 1.81 million shares. If that breakout hits soon, then DVAX will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance level at $1.70 a share. Any high-volume move above $1.70 a share will then give DVAX a chance to re-fill some of its previous gap down zone from June that started at $2.60 a share.
http://www.thestreet.mobi/story/12073312/1/5-stocks-under-10-set-to-soar.html
 

Bernie Madoff

Banned
Joined
Jun 23, 2012
Messages
11,925
Reputation
-2,414
Daps
18,686
Reppin
Otisville, Federal Correctional Institution
3) Dynavax Technologies Corporation (DVAX) – Two top hedge funds that own more than 8% of this biotech stock. The two funds, Orbimed Advisors and RA Capital Management, are both biotech focused hedge funds run by MDs and PhDs. They paid an average cost of $3.10 for Dynavax. That means if you buy Dynavax today you are buying it at 61% discount to what these top biotech hedge funds paid for their shares.


Dvax!!!
 
Joined
May 8, 2012
Messages
3,960
Reputation
950
Daps
8,301
Reppin
NYC
3) Dynavax Technologies Corporation (DVAX) – Two top hedge funds that own more than 8% of this biotech stock. The two funds, Orbimed Advisors and RA Capital Management, are both biotech focused hedge funds run by MDs and PhDs. They paid an average cost of $3.10 for Dynavax. That means if you buy Dynavax today you are buying it at 61% discount to what these top biotech hedge funds paid for their shares.


Dvax!!!
After taking a quick glance at the charts, its dropped significantly and traded within a similar pattern multiple times in the past year. You can lose a lot of money trying to catch falling knives. Ill be keeping an eye on it on my watchlist, though.
 

Bernie Madoff

Banned
Joined
Jun 23, 2012
Messages
11,925
Reputation
-2,414
Daps
18,686
Reppin
Otisville, Federal Correctional Institution
Not sure how its a falling knife with the option play. Unless you think it's going to be way under a $1in April 14. Like achn it's not really rejected by the FDA. In fact the FDA didnt approve it because they wanted them to do more tests to see if it could help a larger range of people. Once word comes out that FDA news is coming people will start buying the stock up and push the price to 2.60.. At that point it's in your hands if you want to keep the options and gamble on the FDA news or take your profits.
 
Joined
May 8, 2012
Messages
3,960
Reputation
950
Daps
8,301
Reppin
NYC
Not sure how its a falling knife with the option play. Unless you think it's going to be way under a $1in April 14. Like achn it's not really rejected by the FDA. In fact the FDA didnt approve it because they wanted them to do more tests to see if it could help a larger range of people. Once word comes out that FDA news is coming people will start buying the stock up and push the price to 2.60.. At that point it's in your hands if you want to keep the options and gamble on the FDA news or take your profits.

What were the catalysts for the previous 2 sharp dips earlier this year? On my phone. Can't get much info.
 

Dr Dre's ProductionSkills

Hutch, yella, Mel-man, Daz, Mike Elizondo
Joined
Jun 16, 2012
Messages
622
Reputation
40
Daps
494
Reppin
NULL
good lord... that drop to 1640ish..i think that might have been in....

the innanets are screaming that they are going to push this thing to like 1900 then the big drop into the 1400's

wth yellen steppin on the gas for taper...man o man...

i think ima buy the dip here in the next couple of weeks... no freakin choice...
 

Scientific Playa

Superstar
Supporter
Joined
Oct 13, 2013
Messages
13,930
Reputation
3,255
Daps
24,889
Reppin
Championships
Positive macro news ....




Last updated: October 18, 2013 9:03 pm

China and US lift global economy
By Ed Crooks in New York, Jamil Anderlini in Beijing and Ralph Atkins in London

cfab9f5d-0186-4e5c-817d-53e699d6feba.img
©AFP
China’s accelerating economy, upbeat statements from US industrial groups and Google’s new share price high raised hopes of strengthening global growth despite the fallout of this month’s political showdown in Washington.

The confrontation between Republicans and the Obama administration, which led to a two-week government shutdown before a last-minute deal on Wednesday, cost the US $24bn, according to estimates by Standard & Poor’s, the rating agency. However, evidence from around the world on Friday indicated more positive trends.

China’s economy expanded 7.8 per cent in the third quarter from the same period a year earlier, up from 7.5 per cent in the previous three months, cheering investors and exporters worldwide.

General Electric, the largest US manufacturer by market capitalisation, on Friday reported a 19 per cent rise in orders, with strong growth in most developed and emerging economies, including a large sale of power generation equipment to Algeria.

Earnings reports, including a stronger than expected swing into profit for Morgan Stanley, helped the S&P 500 index rise to a fresh all-time high. At the close in New York on Friday it was up 2.4 per cent on the week. The FTSE all-world index was up 2.4 per cent compared to the previous Friday’s close.

The standout performer was Google, whose shares climbed 13 per cent on Friday to top $1,000 for the first time, after its results on Thursday.

Global stock markets had remained relatively stable during the US crisis, and this week’s rally reflected expectations that the blow to US growth prospects would delay Federal Reserve plans to scale back, or “taper”, its quantitative easing.

Iain Stealey, senior bond portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management, said: “Markets love QE and this is going to make QE last longer.”

Jeff Bornstein, GE’s chief financial officer, said the company was benefiting from the growing need for infrastructure worldwide, and highlighted the Middle East, Africa and Russia as particular areas of strength.

There were even signs of “a little bit of an improvement” and a pick-up in orders in Europe, he added. GE’s businesses serving US consumers, such as appliances, also reported strong results.

Honeywell, another large manufacturer, was hit by a fall in US military spending, but also reported “improving end markets”, including commercial aerospace and in particular the automotive industry.

Companies including Stanley Black & Decker, the US tool group, have warned of an impact to earnings from the government shutdown and fears over possible US default.

However, GE said it had not seen any material impact from the US political turbulence in the third quarter, and did not expect any large impact in the fourth quarter.

Hinting at a revival in global investor confidence, inflows into European equity funds were this week the highest since July 2011, according to EPFR, the fund data provider.

Additional reporting by Simon Rabinovitch in Shanghai
 
Top