Boiler Room: The Official Stock Market Discussion

[dora_da_destroyer]

My level of thinking is why should I do that when I don't have to? Why should I take an hour a week to charge a car? Why should I pay more for that car so I can do that? I'm talking about going with the less frictional result.

I get that some people will go out of their way to do that. What I also get is people in general are lazy and most won't put forth the effort.

Avg cost of gas is $4 and moving up, at an avg tank size of 16 gallons = 64/week or 3300/year

If having your car on a charger for an hour, which can be done while you’re getting something done like grocery shopping, is more of a hurdle to you than shelling out $70/week on gas, please carry on


As for paying more - the average new car buyer is spending $47k for a car, you can get a new EV for that or less…Chevy volt EUV costs $35k, Tesla model 3 costs 44k

 

[winb83]

The infrastructure will improve over time and while some people will have their own chargers, I believe you’ll have a situation like in California where there are mass charging stations for public use in popular commercial locations

Additionally as the actual technology improves the charging time will drop considerably.

That's not going to be a short term thing. That's my point. My argument is this will happen and it's going to take a while. Is your argument it's going to happen much sooner?

I feel like we're easily a decade or more away from EVs being very common to the point of overtaking ICE cars. To me a decade is a long term time frame. Even then people will still be driving ICE cars more than likely most of our entire lifetimes unless they get outlawed.

 

[dora_da_destroyer]

That's not going to be a short term thing. That's my point. My argument is this will happen and it's going to take a while. Is your argument it's going to happen much sooner?

I feel like we're easily a decade or more away from EVs being very common to the point of overtaking ICE cars. To me a decade is a long term time frame. Even then people will still be driving ICE cars more than likely most of our entire lifetimes unless they get outlawed.

California will ban new gas cars starting in 2035. Gas station owners worry about their livelihoods

CA is trying to move this up to 2030



and other states have proposed similar legislation

 

[winb83]

um what?

this outlook is exactly what people are looking at when pricing the stock today. Growth prospects inflate current price, when we get to 2030 - they year a lot of restrictions around ICE sales kick in - these EV stocks will stop growing as fast, they’ll settle into a range like other mature tech companies

So that's why they're looking at Tesla with a decade of growth baked in and complaining about the stock price falling and not perpetually going up? That's why they're looking at unproven companies like Lucid and Rivian and were valuing them over the likes of Ford and GM until the market got turbulent and they all fled those stocks.

I look at the EV sector as just another hype train that will move to something else like weed stocks in 2019 then Cronos Group was selling for something in the low $20s. All that growth was priced in and eventually people lost patience and moved on to the next thing and it's a under $4 stock now.

 

[dora_da_destroyer]

So that's why they're looking at Tesla with a decade of growth baked in and complaining about the stock price falling and not perpetually going up? That's why they're looking at unproven companies like Lucid and Rivian and were valuing them over the likes of Ford and GM until the market got turbulent and they all fled those stocks.

I look at the EV sector as just another hype train that will move to something else like weed stocks in 2019 then Cronos Group was selling for something in the low $20s. All that growth was priced in and eventually people lost patience and moved on to the next thing and it's a under $4 stock now.

ehh, there's so much wrong with this analysis, i'm not in the mood to type out all the things (from the "investors" you're looking at, to how growth is priced, to comparing it to weed stocks - an industry that's federally illegal, to looking at TSLA's chart to see how long it was dead in the water, to the investments these companies are making beyond just cars - parts, infrastructure, minining, charging)...

that's fine breh, we all got our sectors we believe in, you don't believe in EV's cool - but your rationale for not believing isn't sound

 

[chineebai]

im starting to become repetitive but energy, gold, inflation names continue to be strong as fukk.

 

[chineebai]

SPY has a bull flag but it has to cross over 437

 

[chineebai]

NOC has a nice cup and handle pattern that can be confirmed if it can close above 405.

a month early. 405 was magical. It closed there 3 days ago, and then it rocketed. It's just the price action and pattern. Amazing how things fall into place.

 

[el_oh_el]

Lengthy post ahead:

I've seen it said that replacing a battery on a used EV can cost more than the car is worth out of warranty. That's a whole new level than replacing an engine or transmission on an ICE car. How would you even verify just how well the battery performs? Maybe you buy from a car company directly because buying from a private seller could be a nightmare.

Batteries in EVs will usually outlive the cars useful life. There is a whole market that is burgeoning on placing used EV batteries in other areas for storage. Its stated that the average EV battery lifespan (until failure) will be about 200k miles. Right now, on average, battery health still is over 90% after 6 or 7 years of use in the Teslas that were measured. This figure is improved over EVs created just a few years prior and will continue to improve by a few percentage points year over year. Besides that, theres also the fact that since EV markeshare is still in its infancy, it does not benefit from economies of scale that ICE vehicles enjoy from the last CENTURY plus of incremental improvement. This will quickly change as time goes on.
Also, in cases where a battery must be replaced after the 8,10 year or 100k mile warranty expires, it is very likely only due to degredation and not due to complete failure of the pack. So that person would be able to get trade-in credit for their current pack at some point in the future.

Verification of a new battery performance? If one is spending the money for a battery swap, best believe there were be a statement of how much kwH the battery should provide + a warranty period to back it up. This is not an issue at all...

A barrier to entry is how does one that doesn't own their own home charge such a device. I'm assuming once a week for an extended period of time the device will have to be plugged up and charged. Plenty of people have no garage or external building with power to do that. Some people live in trailer parks, some in apartment buildings, some people live in homes they rent. With the cars they have now none of that is an issue. It's a smooth frictionless experience. If I'm paying some company to use their charging I'm at the mercy of what they decide I should pay rather than me using my home power. They can set or change those prices however they see fit and there's still the issue of time. Once a week or so I gotta take 45-60 minutes out of my day to charge the car. That's something I don't have to bother with right now. On my way anywhere I can pull over in a minute get gas and be on my way.

You dont need a garage or external building to charge a car. If you rent a house or stay in a trailer park, you can simply use level 1 charging. It will take a very long time to charge at that rate, but you can set it and forget it. Get home at 6? Plug in to a wall outlet. Car gets at least 14 hours charging period. And, for example, the Iconiq 5 EV will get you 11 miles per hour of charging on average from a plain old wall plug. So even without a dedicated charger you will wake up to 200miles + range the next day. This is still an issue in an apartment with no fast chargers or outlets available, however.

Also, again, one does not have to sit charging for 40 minutes. This is an exaggeration rooted in ignorance. One usually does not sit on public chargers for any longer than he needs as these chargers are more expensive than charging at home. Again using the Iconiq 5 as an example, it has a 800v charger that can accept 350kw current. This charge rate would bring the battery from 20% to 80% in 18 minutes, and provide 69 miles in just 5 minutes. This is different from the fuel up mentality somewhat, but not so much. If i'm in a rush, I will do partial fillups of gas in an ICE vehicle, which takes a couple minutes. The same would be true here, provided that I find a 350kw charger (which admittedly is still rare but the market is still in infancy). But even with the easy to find 50kW chargers, I would sit for 30 minutes to get to 80%. This is not a big of a deal as you think, and only occurs for me often because I have an early BEV with anemic range. And I do need to repeat that while filling up gas is quicker, it does not simply take one minute then go, unless you are buying less than 5 gallons of fuel. You're bending the metrics to suit your argument there.

Lastly thing for this quote: competition exists. An EV charging company sure enough can "set prices to whatever they see fit" but if it is not competitive, then they will lose customers. Electric charging cannot be more expensive than fueling up with hydrocarbons for the equivalent mileage in almost any case, so this point is a bit moot.

By mass market product I mean something ready for the average person to buy with little friction. The iPhone is a mass market product

IMO, its a bit of a misnomer to compare a car purchase, which is more expensive by orders of magnitude, to a phone purchase in terms of friction encountered on the path to purchase. EVs are already mass market. Just because the infra is immature compared to the incumbent does not take away from this. If my mother so wished, she could go purchase an EV today without much fuss and run the level 1 charger out her apartment to the car if she so pleased. This is more friction than one would have vs the century-long incumbent, but not by much IMO.

Plus it seems that you are discounting the longevity of relatively mechanically simple EVs vs mechanically complex ICE vehicles. This metric will also only improve from here on.

People live like this now. Sounds like a pain.

Pay the apartment complex $75 a month to get a dedicated charger or burn an hour a week to charge away from home.

Sounds like a damn deal. All my fuel costs covered by $75 a month? And I get a dedicated spot?? Sign me the fukk up. Even on 120v, on most weekdays my car would be filled.

That's not going to be a short term thing. That's my point. My argument is this will happen and it's going to take a while. Is your argument it's going to happen much sooner?

I feel like we're easily a decade or more away from EVs being very common to the point of overtaking ICE cars. To me a decade is a long term time frame. Even then people will still be driving ICE cars more than likely most of our entire lifetimes unless they get outlawed.

A decade away from overtaking the incumbent of 100 years is not a bad bet. It also does not mean that EVs are not currently mass market. Actually, to overtake the current technology, one needs to be able to be mass-produced in the first place. An item that is able to be mass-produced is by definition a mass-market product.

 

[Rickdogg44]

Damn it got bad past hour

 

[winb83]

Lengthy post ahead:

Batteries in EVs will usually outlive the cars useful life. There is a whole market that is burgeoning on placing used EV batteries in other areas for storage. Its stated that the average EV battery lifespan (until failure) will be about 200k miles. Right now, on average, battery health still is over 90% after 6 or 7 years of use in the Teslas that were measured. This figure is improved over EVs created just a few years prior and will continue to improve by a few percentage points year over year. Besides that, theres also the fact that since EV markeshare is still in its infancy, it does not benefit from economies of scale that ICE vehicles enjoy from the last CENTURY plus of incremental improvement. This will quickly change as time goes on.
Also, in cases where a battery must be replaced after the 8,10 year or 100k mile warranty expires, it is very likely only due to degredation and not due to complete failure of the pack. So that person would be able to get trade-in credit for their current pack at some point in the future.

Verification of a new battery performance? If one is spending the money for a battery swap, best believe there were be a statement of how much kwH the battery should provide + a warranty period to back it up. This is not an issue at all...



You dont need a garage or external building to charge a car. If you rent a house or stay in a trailer park, you can simply use level 1 charging. It will take a very long time to charge at that rate, but you can set it and forget it. Get home at 6? Plug in to a wall outlet. Car gets at least 14 hours charging period. And, for example, the Iconiq 5 EV will get you 11 miles per hour or charging on average from a plain old wall plug. So even without a dedicated charger you will wake up to 200miles + range the next day. This is still an issue in an apartment with no fast chargers or outlets available, however.

Also, again, one does not have to sit charging for 40 minutes. This is an exaggeration rooted in ignorance. One usually does not sit on public chargers for any longer than he needs as these chargers are more expensive than charging at home. Again using the Iconiq 5 as an example, it has a 800v charger that can accept 350kw current. This charge rate would bring the battery from 20% to 80% in 18 minutes, and provide 69 miles in just 5 minutes. This is different from the fuel up mentality somewhat, but not so much. If i'm in a rush, I will do partial fillups of gas in an ICE vehicle, which takes a couple minutes. The same would be true here, provided that I find a 350kw charger (which admittedly is still rare but the market is still in infancy). But even with the easy to find 50kW chargers, I would sit for 30 minutes to get to 80%. This is not a big of a deal as you think, and only occurs for me often because I have an early BEV with anemic range. And I do need to repeat that while filling up gas is quicker, it does not simply take one minute then go, unless you are buying less than 5 gallons of fuel. You're bending the metrics to suit your argument there.

Lastly thing for this quote: competition exists. An EV charging company sure enough can "set prices to whatever they see fit" but if it is not competitive, then they will lose customers. Electric charging cannot be more expensive than fueling up with hydrocarbons for the equivalent mileage in almost any case, so this point is a bit moot.

IMO, its a bit of a misnomer to compare a car purchase, which is more expensive by orders of magnitude, to a phone purchase in terms of friction encountered on the path to purchase. EVs are already mass market. Just because the infra is immature compared to the incumbent does not take away from this. If my mother so wished, she could go purchase an EV today without much fuss and run the level 1 charger out her apartment to the car if she so pleased. This is more friction than one would have vs the century-long incumbent, but not by much IMO.

Plus it seems that you are discounting the longevity of relatively mechanically simple EVs vs mechanically complex ICE vehicles. This metric will also only improve from here on.


Sounds like a damn deal. All my fuel costs covered by $75 a month? And I get a dedicated spot?? Sign me the fukk up. Even on 120v, on most weekdays my car would be filled.



A decade away from overtaking the incumbent of 100 years is not a bad bet. It also does not mean that EVs are not currently mass market. Actually, to overtake the current technology, one needs to be able to be mass-produced in the first place. An item that is able to be mass-produced is by definition a mass-market product.

I spent $18k on my ICE car 2.5 years ago. Outside of 2 oil changes going on 3 and a new set of tires because I wanted them I've spent zero extra on it.

I'm supposed to go out and spend $43K to $50K on an Ionic 5 for what purpose? Because it's the future? All these compromises and adjustments you're talking about making. Why? What I have works for me. Like the typical American I'm too lazy to put forth that effort to make something else work.

If I owned a home with a garage and power ran to it yeah that works out great. By the time my current car is driven into the ground which I imagine will be 8 or so years I might be in a situation where an EV makes sense. Right now it doesn't. I would imagine I'm not the only person in America that's the case for. Hell my mother is in the market for a new car now and I tried to talk her into one. She's only considering ICE cars. Says she doesn't want an EV and she has a garage with power in it.

 

[dora_da_destroyer]

I spent $18k on my ICE car 2.5 years ago. Outside of 2 oil changes going on 3 and a new set of tires because I wanted them I've spent zero extra on it.

I'm supposed to go out and spend $43K to $50K on an Ionic 5 for what purpose? Because it's the future? All these compromises and adjustments you're talking about making. Why? What I have works for me. Like the typical American I'm too lazy to put forth that effort to make something else work.

If I owned a home with a garage and power ran to it yeah that works out great. By the time my current car is driven into the ground which I imagine will be 8 or so years I might be in a situation where an EV makes sense. Right now it doesn't. I would imagine I'm not the only person in America that's the case for. Hell my mother is in the market for a new car now and I tried to talk her into one. She's only considering ICE cars. Says she doesn't want an EV and she has a garage with power in it.

you've put gas in it every week...and EVs wouldn't have those oil changes either

you are again not comparing what the ask is, the EV market right now is for new buyers, new buyers are, on average, spending the same amount on ICE cars as what they could for certain EVs, so yes, someone in the market today paying 40-45k for a new car can consider an EV and reap the benefits. when the used EV market starts to mature in the next ~5ish years, people will get used EVs for the average price they're paying for used, which right now is $28k for ICE cars.

 

[el_oh_el]

I spent $18k on my ICE car 2.5 years ago. Outside of 2 oil changes going on 3 and a new set of tires because I wanted them I've spent zero extra on it.

I'm supposed to go out and spend $43K to $50K on an Ionic 5 for what purpose? Because it's the future? All these compromises and adjustments you're talking about making. Why? What I have works for me. Like the typical American I'm too lazy to put forth that effort to make something else work.

If I owned a home with a garage and power ran to it yeah that works out great. By the time my current car is driven into the ground which I imagine will be 8 or so years I might be in a situation where an EV makes sense. Right now it doesn't. I would imagine I'm not the only person in America that's the case for. Hell my mother is in the market for a new car now and I tried to talk her into one. She's only considering ICE cars. Says she doesn't want an EV and she has a garage with power in it.

She likely doesnt want an EV because 1) she hasnt driven one and 2) is unaware of the convenience of having your car be charged at home and not having to go to a gas station at all, ever.
You say you spent 18k on an ICE 2 and a half years ago. This was likely a used car purchase considering the price. If thats the case, its pointless to compare it to an Iconiq 5, which is a newly released vehicle. Also, if you have only changed oil twice in going on 3 years, you likely do not drive much and would be in the prime beneficial range of owning something like an i3, which also can be had for 18k. I bought my 2015 i3 in the fall of 2020, and since then I have also only bought a set of rear tires. Besides the charger for my garage, I have not spent any other money on the vehicle during the 15k miles I have driven.

In terms of why, of course that is down to the person. For me, I find that EVs within the same price bracket as their ICE counterpart will very likely perform MUCH better in terms of driving dynamics, and have a lot less maintenance.

 

[winb83]

She likely doesnt want an EV because 1) she hasnt driven one and 2) is unaware of the convenience of having your car be charged at home and not having to go to a gas station at all, ever.
You say you spent 18k on an ICE 2 and a half years ago. This was likely a used car purchase considering the price. If thats the case, its pointless to compare it to an Iconiq 5, which is a newly released vehicle. Also, if you have only changed oil twice in going on 3 years, you likely do not drive much and would be in the prime beneficial range of owning something like an i3, which also can be had for 18k. I bought my 2015 i3 in the fall of 2020, and since then I have also only bought a set of rear tires. Besides the charger for my garage, I have not spent any other money on the vehicle during the 15k miles I have driven.

In terms of why, of course that is down to the person. For me, I find that EVs within the same price bracket as their ICE counterpart will very likely perform MUCH better in terms of driving dynamics, and have a lot less maintenance.

The tech geek in me would love an EV. But that's what I see it as. A tech gadget more than anything else.

I have a company vehicle for work so my personal is driven only on the three days a week I'm off. I got that car at 21K miles in October 2019 and today it has 28K miles on it. The body will probably rust out on me well under 80K miles.

 

[chineebai]

This market is insane right now. Cash is probably the best position.