Boiler Room: The Official Stock Market Discussion

[Scholar]

@Scholar

Not even I can comprehend this level of bagholding

Made them permanent long term holders

How can you sell the bottom if you can't sell at all

 

[el_oh_el]

As a working class person priced out of home ownership I would not buy an electric car. I have no reasonable way to charge it and no desire to spend more upfront on a vehicle when I can get an ICE car and fill it up when need be in under a minute. I'm not driving miles to a local charge station and sitting there for however long it takes to top off while paying whatever rate they wanna charge. If I gotta use a credit card to pay and fuel my car I'm good with what I got now.

Even now as a common person when I see someone driving a Tesla my initial reaction is they got money and I'm probably right.

EVs are just not a mass market product and they won't be anytime soon. They're play toys for wealthy people. Regular people will continue to drive ICE cars. Hell people are taking out 7+ year loans on those. EVs are both unaffordable and impractical for mass market adoption. Can easily see the luxury segment shifting to them though.

A couple things:

As a working class person priced out of home ownership I would not buy an electric car. I have no reasonable way to charge it and no desire to spend more upfront on a vehicle when I can get an ICE car and fill it up when need be in under a minute

This is a somewhat fair point in regards to buying a new car. But, there are affordable used electric vehciles. They look a little dorky (BMW i3) but they are entirely practical, especially the later models, and can be had for less tthan 25k.
I cant completely disagree that you need to be able to charge at home to make it worth it as fast chargers, while still cheaper than gas, are a good amount more than just charging at home. I do believe that scheduling systems at apartments could help this work, but maintenance of the charging infra would have to be established.
Finally, it doesnt take only a minute to fill up a gas car. For small car you are still at the pump for at least 5-6 minutes. Of course, this is is still significantly shorter than charging to 80%.

If I gotta use a credit card to pay and fuel my car I'm good with what I got now.

Come on breh, how old are you... A debit (credit isnt a requirement) card is an extremely low barrier of entry..mentioning it as an adult is kinda suspect.

EVs are just not a mass market product and they won't be anytime soon. They're play toys for wealthy people.

Whats your definition of mass-market? Millions of EV are already on the road, and are entirely practical. They can be had used for as little as 15k. Sure, they have a ways to go until they are a larger percentage but this type of stuff cant be rushed, obviously

 

[bnew]

A couple things:

This is a somewhat fair point in regards to buying a new car. But, there are affordable used electric vehciles. They look a little dorky (BMW i3) but they are entirely practical, especially the later models, and can be had for less tthan 25k.
I cant completely disagree that you need to be able to charge at home to make it worth it as fast chargers, while still cheaper than gas, are a good amount more than just charging at home. I do believe that scheduling systems at apartments could help this work, but maintenance of the charging infra would have to be established.
Finally, it doesnt take only a minute to fill up a gas car. For small car you are still at the pump for at least 5-6 minutes. Of course, this is is still significantly shorter than charging to 80%.

Come on breh, how old are you... A debit (credit isnt a requirement) card is an extremely low barrier of entry..mentioning it as an adult is kinda suspect.

Whats your definition of mass-market? Millions of EV are already on the road, and are entirely practical. They can be had used for as little as 15k. Sure, they have a ways to go until they are a larger percentage but this type of stuff cant be rushed, obviously

he has a point in regards to requiring a digital transaction to maintain the car. theres privacy implications too but EV's are built to be privacy invasive.

NPR Cookie Consent and Choices

Approximately 63 million Americans are either unbanked or underbanked, according to a report by the Federal Reserve. That means they don't use banks to make financial transactions like cashing checks, saving money or applying for credit.

That's because some are discouraged from opening accounts due to high fees. Others don't trust financial institutions. But being outside of the banking system can leave people vulnerable, especially during a pandemic where many retailers and businesses are relying on cashless transactions.

How do the unbanked or underbanked financially navigate living in the U.S.? And what does an increasingly cashless future look like for them?

 

[el_oh_el]

When I say that it's a long way off that's not some whoa is me shyt. It's the truth. Regular people aren't going to transition to EVs until it's just as easy and cheap to own one as it is an ICE vehicle. That's going to take a massive upheaval in society to bring that about.

I can walk in my rental office right now and ask them when we're getting EV chargers for the residents and I'll likely be laughed out of the building and this is from a apartment complex that got us smart locks and thermostats 2 years ago.

Let's not compare ownership of a car one of the biggest purchases people make next to a home to a cell phone, laptop, or TV. None of those things will have the financial impact a car has on a person. None of them have anywhere near the barrier of entry to ownership as an EV does either.

The first Tesla was out in 2008 it's 2022 and EVs aren't even sniffing being mainstream yet. It took 14 years to reach 3% of new car sales. It's still a distant way off. The stock market just likes to get excited about stuff early but most of these people piling into these stocks don't have a 10-15 year investment horizon.

he has a point in regards to requiring a digital transaction to maintain the car. theres privacy implications too but EV's are built to be privacy invasive.

NPR Cookie Consent and Choices

Hmm. I didnt think about it from that angle. Thats a good point. Though I somewhat doubt it changes much; chargers dont require the same type of observation/surveillance that gas pumps do. With pumps theres always at least one employee present.
And yes, every fukking thing is privacy invasive at this point. The only way it will meaningfully get better is through legislation, and were a long way from that.

 

[bnew]

Hmm. I didnt think about it from that angle. Thats a good point. Though I somewhat doubt it changes much; chargers dont require the same type of observation/surveillance that gas pumps do. With pumps theres always at least one employee present.
And yes, every fukking thing is privacy invasive at this point. The only way it will meaningfully get better is through legislation, and were a long way from that.

i wasn't alluding to surveillance cameras but to the credit/debit transactions themselves that builds a dossier of a persons whereabouts and habits, that the use of cash would practically eliminate.

 

[el_oh_el]

i wasn't alluding to surveillance cameras but to the credit/debit transactions themselves that builds a dossier of a persons whereabouts and habits, that the use of cash would practically eliminate.

Sorry, I didnt explain that correctly.
In terms of surveillance, I meant that a live person is needed at gas pumps. That same live person that takes cash. Since a live person isnt required with electric stations, you likely will continue to not see many cash accepting stations. I could be wrong on this though

 

[winb83]

A couple things:

This is a somewhat fair point in regards to buying a new car. But, there are affordable used electric vehciles. They look a little dorky (BMW i3) but they are entirely practical, especially the later models, and can be had for less tthan 25k.
I cant completely disagree that you need to be able to charge at home to make it worth it as fast chargers, while still cheaper than gas, are a good amount more than just charging at home. I do believe that scheduling systems at apartments could help this work, but maintenance of the charging infra would have to be established.
Finally, it doesnt take only a minute to fill up a gas car. For small car you are still at the pump for at least 5-6 minutes. Of course, this is is still significantly shorter than charging to 80%.

Come on breh, how old are you... A debit (credit isnt a requirement) card is an extremely low barrier of entry..mentioning it as an adult is kinda suspect.

Whats your definition of mass-market? Millions of EV are already on the road, and are entirely practical. They can be had used for as little as 15k. Sure, they have a ways to go until they are a larger percentage but this type of stuff cant be rushed, obviously

I've seen it said that replacing a battery on a used EV can cost more than the car is worth out of warranty. That's a whole new level than replacing an engine or transmission on an ICE car. How would you even verify just how well the battery performs? Maybe you buy from a car company directly because buying from a private seller could be a nightmare.

A barrier to entry is how does one that doesn't own their own home charge such a device. I'm assuming once a week for an extended period of time the device will have to be plugged up and charged. Plenty of people have no garage or external building with power to do that. Some people live in trailer parks, some in apartment buildings, some people live in homes they rent. With the cars they have now none of that is an issue. It's a smooth frictionless experience. If I'm paying some company to use their charging I'm at the mercy of what they decide I should pay rather than me using my home power. They can set or change those prices however they see fit and there's still the issue of time. Once a week or so I gotta take 45-60 minutes out of my day to charge the car. That's something I don't have to bother with right now. On my way anywhere I can pull over in a minute get gas and be on my way.

By mass market product I mean something ready for the average person to buy with little friction. The iPhone is a mass market product.

 

[winb83]

People live like this now. Sounds like a pain.

Pay the apartment complex $75 a month to get a dedicated charger or burn an hour a week to charge away from home.

 

[Scholar]

Dudes in the AMC read one post on reddit about the hedgies and now they SEC attorneys

 

[dora_da_destroyer]

I've seen it said that replacing a battery on a used EV can cost more than the car is worth out of warranty. That's a whole new level than replacing an engine or transmission on an ICE car. How would you even verify just how well the battery performs? Maybe you buy from a car company directly because buying from a private seller could be a nightmare.

A barrier to entry is how does one that doesn't own their own home charge such a device. I'm assuming once a week for an extended period of time the device will have to be plugged up and charged. Plenty of people have no garage or external building with power to do that. Some people live in trailer parks, some in apartment buildings, some people live in homes they rent. With the cars they have now none of that is an issue. It's a smooth frictionless experience. If I'm paying some company to use their charging I'm at the mercy of what they decide I should pay rather than me using my home power. They can set or change those prices however they see fit and there's still the issue of time. Once a week or so I gotta take 45-60 minutes out of my day to charge the car. That's something I don't have to bother with right now. On my way anywhere I can pull over in a minute get gas and be on my way.

By mass market product I mean something ready for the average person to buy with little friction. The iPhone is a mass market product.

Bro, mass adoption doesn’t mean every fringe case person will have an EV, you’re pulling out outliers who probably have a barely working ICE car. Mass adoption is getting to 25-30% of the market, eventually 50%…not 100%.

 

[dora_da_destroyer]

People live like this now. Sounds like a pain.

Pay the apartment complex $75 a month to get a dedicated charger or burn an hour a week to charge away from home.

Again, you don’t need a dedicated charger. Hook your shyt up for two hours and then move it, reservation systems, etc. California has the best EV infrastructure in the US so far - there are chargers in lots at the mall, grocery store, (commuter) train stations, hotels, hospitals lots, lots outside of work buildings, streets, and other charging stations at gas stations. There is some citizenry to it, you should move your car after a couple hours to free the charger for someone else, but for some reason your mind can’t grasp that people will willingly do something different. I see why Michigan is falling behind, y’all stuck in 1960s General Motors Motown thinking

 

[winb83]

Bro, mass adoption doesn’t mean every fringe case person will have an EV, you’re pulling out outliers who probably have a barely working ICE car. Mass adoption is getting to 25-30% of the market, eventually 50%…not 100%.

Ok renters who make up about 40% of the US population and climbing are a fringe case. There's plenty of people that don't have broadband internet but at this point it's a mass market product. There's plenty of people that can't get cell phone coverage in their homes but cell phones are still a mass market product.

I'm not saying EVs will never be that. I'm saying it feels more or less like it's a decade away from even sniffing that. Right now that's a product for people who live in a specific set of conditions with a high disposable income. That's not mass market. Mass market is when the Honda Civic / Accord or Toyota Corolla / Camry level buyer doesn't think twice about buying an EV. Obviously in the future we'll transition to EVs. These people buying up all these EV stocks and overinflating their value many aren't looking at what's gonna be the case 10 years out. They're jumping on the train for what's happening right now with the valuations.

 

[NaijaProdigy Redux]

I've seen it said that replacing a battery on a used EV can cost more than the car is worth out of warranty. That's a whole new level than replacing an engine or transmission on an ICE car. How would you even verify just how well the battery performs? Maybe you buy from a car company directly because buying from a private seller could be a nightmare.

A barrier to entry is how does one that doesn't own their own home charge such a device. I'm assuming once a week for an extended period of time the device will have to be plugged up and charged. Plenty of people have no garage or external building with power to do that. Some people live in trailer parks, some in apartment buildings, some people live in homes they rent. With the cars they have now none of that is an issue. It's a smooth frictionless experience. If I'm paying some company to use their charging I'm at the mercy of what they decide I should pay rather than me using my home power. They can set or change those prices however they see fit and there's still the issue of time. Once a week or so I gotta take 45-60 minutes out of my day to charge the car. That's something I don't have to bother with right now. On my way anywhere I can pull over in a minute get gas and be on my way.

By mass market product I mean something ready for the average person to buy with little friction. The iPhone is a mass market product.

The infrastructure will improve over time and while some people will have their own chargers, I believe you’ll have a situation like in California where there are mass charging stations for public use in popular commercial locations

Additionally as the actual technology improves the charging time will drop considerably.

 

[winb83]

Again, you don’t need a dedicated charger. Hook your shyt up for two hours and then move it, reservation systems, etc. California has the best EV infrastructure in the US so far - there are chargers in lots at the mall, grocery store, (commuter) train stations, hotels, hospitals lots, lots outside of work buildings, streets, and other charging stations at gas stations. There is some citizenry to it, you should move your car after a couple hours to free the charger for someone else, but for some reason your mind can’t grasp that people will willingly do something different. I see why Michigan is falling behind, y’all stuck in 1960s General Motors Motown thinking

My level of thinking is why should I do that when I don't have to? Why should I take an hour a week to charge a car? Why should I pay more for that car so I can do that? I'm talking about going with the less frictional result.

I get that some people will go out of their way to do that. What I also get is people in general are lazy and most won't put forth the effort.

 

[dora_da_destroyer]

Ok renters who make up about 40% of the US population and climbing are a fringe case. There's plenty of people that don't have broadband internet but at this point it's a mass market product. There's plenty of people that can't get cell phone coverage in their homes but cell phones are still a mass market product.

I'm not saying EVs will never be that. I'm saying it feels more or less like it's a decade away from even sniffing that. Right now that's a product for people who live in a specific set of conditions with a high disposable income. That's not mass market. Mass market is when the Honda Civic / Accord or Toyota Corolla / Camry level buyer doesn't think twice about buying an EV. Obviously in the future we'll transition to EVs. These people buying up all these EV stocks and overinflating their value many aren't looking at what's gonna be the case 10 years out. They're jumping on the train for what's happening right now with the valuations.

um what?

this outlook is exactly what people are looking at when pricing the stock today. Growth prospects inflate current price, when we get to 2030 - they year a lot of restrictions around ICE sales kick in - these EV stocks will stop growing as fast, they’ll settle into a range like other mature tech companies