Boiler Room: The Official Stock Market Discussion

[dora_da_destroyer]

Not in 2019. That was the Trump China beef that pushed prices lower. It blew over and the market rose again. The share price already doubled from my average cost before the pandemic happened.
Hell in late 2018 in a panic the share prices fell lower than my average. Wasn't in the market till Jan 19.

you do understand all of this was a bull market, you're hoping for wipeouts because all you know is quick recovery when other selloffs and recessions have taken years to recover from. you're letting outlying behavior drive your idea of what's normal and expecting that to always be the case.

this is simplifying things too much but you can either hope for healthy growth and pullbacks:

example A: 12k invested over 20 yrs @ 18% CAGR = 329k


12k invested for 329k return in 20 yrs


or be like you're hoping for where you basically wipe a year of growth off the board every few years just to get some cheaper shares...

Example B:

• 12k @ 20% for 6 yrs = 36k
• yr 7 - tank, 0% growth, but you add 2k of stock
• 38k @ 20% for 5 yrs = 95k
• yr 13 & 14 tank - 0 growth, but you add 5k
• 100k @ 20% for 6 yrs = 299k

19k invested for 299k in 20 yrs


as you can see, erasing full years of growth to add more stock, even with higher growth in the years the stock price moves up, doesn't have you come out ahead

 

[winb83]

you do understand all of this was a bull market, you're hoping for wipeouts because all you know is quick recovery when other selloffs and recessions have taken years to recover from. you're letting outlying behavior drive your idea of what's normal and expecting that to always be the case.

this is simplifying things too much but you can either hope for healthy growth and pullbacks:

example A: 12k invested over 20 yrs @ 18% CAGR = 329k


12k invested for 329k return in 20 yrs


or be like you're hoping for where you basically wipe a year of growth off the board every few years just to get some cheaper shares...

Example B:

• 12k @ 20% for 6 yrs = 36k
• yr 7 - tank, 0% growth, but you add 2k of stock
• 38k @ 20% for 5 yrs = 95k
• yr 13 & 14 tank - 0 growth, but you add 5k
• 100k @ 20% for 6 yrs = 299k

19k invested for 299k in 20 yrs


as you can see, erasing full years of growth to add more stock doesn't have you come out ahead

I'm not looking for a recession. I'm looking for what happened in early 2020 and early 2019. People panicking and overreacting to stuff and selling off then eventually in the not too distant future the share price rising again. If we have a legit recession or depression we're in a world of trouble. I don't legitimately expect Apple to fall back into the $40s or Tesla to fall into the $300s but if they did I would be a buyer.

My usual MO is to buy small amounts of shares and watch the price action and if it continues to fall buy more. If Apple falls below $100 I'll start buying it again. At the moment I can't see myself buying Apple because it's a disproportional size of all my Investments. It would take a real haircut to get me to add so such an imbalanced position.

Some of these stocks like Telsa are priced so high that they will inevitably continue to fall and probably trade sideways for years because too much growth was priced in and people all got on the hype train.

 

[FabTrey]

Screw short term profits. I don't plan on selling Tesla anytime in the next decade. I hope it falls to under $300 so I can buy full shares and not destroy my lower cost basis.

Just like I want Apple to fall back under $100.

something catastrophic has to happen for TSLA to be under $300. anything can happen, but i doubt it. if it happens then well i'm gonna be a 1 trick pony.

 

[dora_da_destroyer]

I'm not looking for a recession. I'm looking for what happened in early 2020 and early 2019. People panicking and overreacting to stuff and selling off then eventually in the not too distant future the share price rising again.

you're hoping for things that are an anomaly, especially last year where markets pulled back to 2017 levels between feb/mar only to recover and continue surging higher by jul, that's not normal. this bull market helped it, but with yields rising, all things point to slower growth of stocks that were already priced way too far ahead of earnings. effectively you're hoping for an outlier event to happen in what's looking like a softer market...i'm all for buy the dip, but i'm in no way looking for march 2020 again because i dont believe we'll snap back the same way we did last year

 

[Koli_Kat]

So are the feds going to save us again this time or nah

 

[the cac mamba]

Well... what did u buy?

10 squares and 2 grand each in my mutual funds

 

[KalKal]

Everybody getting clapped today..

This is the most money I've ever lost in a single day...more than I earn in a year by far.

Weird thing is, I'm not even all that worried.
I was looking on something that was hard hit today that could bet on. I ended up buying some Tripadvisor calls:
TRIP Apr 09 '21 $51 Call

TRIP was down over 10% when I bought them, and it ended the day down over 12%
Hope it bounces back so I can flip them for some quick money.

 

[NaijaProdigy Redux]

edit

 

[El Bombi]

I'm about to eat good off this dip.

 

[dora_da_destroyer]

So are the feds going to save us again this time or nah

what's happening is the fed can't save us. romey rome already said interest rates aint rising, but the yields got people (institutions) moving otherwise.

edit: i wanna be all in gang, i need to find a beaten down stock (something i don't already own) tomorrow and go in for 20k or some shyt and check back in october

 

[winb83]

There's a bit too much fukkery going on in the stock market for my taste with all these meme stocks. Somebody post something on Twitter and the share price of a stock doubles. This thing really is turning into a giant casino. At lease before all these memes it was about reality based judgments and research to an extent now people are acting like dogs chasing cars.

 

[Doomsday]

These ARKK leaps get any cheaper I'm loading up.

 

[Deafheaven]

I'm hoping for a brief surge when these fukkboys approve that stimulus finally. I need to get up from under some of these positions at least even

this week has sucked lol

 

[K-Deini]

what's happening is the fed can't save us. romey rome already said interest rates aint rising, but the yields got people (institutions) moving otherwise.

edit: i wanna be all in gang, i need to find a beaten down stock (something i don't already own) tomorrow and go in for 20k or some shyt and check back in october

Sonn

Similar to my sos back in January

 

[FatherSimp]

This week is something else

Just added more money to my mutual funds and kept it moving