Monday, 12:05AM:
T’Challa has recorded the second best Sunday ever at the domestic B.O. with an estimated $59.55M per industry estimates tonight, filing behind the all-time record held by
Disney/Lucasfilm’s
Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($60.5M on Dec. 20, 2015). This now pushes
Black Panther to a 3-day between $201M-$202M;
still the 5th best domestic opening of all-time after 2012’s
Avengers ($207.4M).
But here’s where it gets crazy:
Rivals are literally forecasting that the Ryan Coogler-directed Marvel movie could take the record for the second-best 4-day opening of all-time with $241M-$243M after
Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($288M). In that case,
Black Panther would slaughter the Friday-Monday hauls of
Avengers ($226.3M)
Jurassic World ($234.1M), and, yes,
Star Wars: The Last Jedi ($241.6M).
In order for
Black Panther to claw its way to that height, it would mean that Monday’s ease from Sunday would range between -30% to -32% or $40.3M to $41.75M. Conservative projections this morning figured Monday would decline -45% from Sunday, in which case Presidents Day would yield $32.75M for a $234M+ FSSM.
Black Panther has ripped up all previous pre-summer comps, which has made Monday a challenge for many to predict. Another factor juicing ticket sales, as we mentioned earlier, is that the 18-24 crowd comes out in bulk after 10PM, and that contributes to the swing factor with these forecasts by the time the sun comes up. No doubt people will continue to flock to the movies tomorrow with ComScore’s school calendar showing 88% K-12 out and 34% of all colleges off.