The video illustrated my point exactly straight from Yang's mouth.
"What's gonna happen is you're gonna dramatically reduce enrollment for these programs because a lot of people will be like I prefer the cash and then this new incoming population will just opt for the dividend and never end up in these welfare programs and end up shrinking the enrollments over time. You just wouldn't do it all at once because there are a lot of people in distinct situations. And this is much more politically feasible and popular than trying to go in and tear these programs from the roots up."
This is the Milton Friedman argument for a UBI. Use UBI to get rid of benefits programs. If you're cool with that, that's fine. But that's Andrew Yang himself saying that this is a politically feasible way to get rid of certain benefits programs (which is my main point of contention for the model). If you'd like to address my concerns directly; I'm open to hearing which programs he's getting rid of along with some data that shows why those programs are failures. If it's targeting something like SNAP, for instance, I don't see the value in attacking a program that is known to be efficient and effective. You could stack it, but why attack something that works. I'm glad he clarified SSDI will be available still, but what programs are targeted that add up to 600 billion dollars and why or how are they failing?
This sounds great in theory, but worrisome as all hell when we look at the makeup of our legislative branch and what has happened to well-intentioned programs (Obamacare) when they finally got to the main stage. The "fiscal responsibility" crew on both sides of the aisle will attack this program from both the limited use of VAT that would be required to avoid it being regressive and also from the number of programs Yang admittedly is forcing people to opt-out of with aims to increase the programs targeted (think the removal of the Public Option at the zero hour because Lieberman). When Rubin essentially says "this sounds good but why not blow up those programs out the gate" he's a dummy, but he's not completely off base for what the legislative branch can aim to do.
It's a lofty goal that I think would only be possible with a large embrace of MMT. I can't imagine funding this UBI model as it stands without the fiscal hawks circling to expand the taxes and limit the programs just to pass it. Even if Yang got everything through exactly as envisioned, we're one bonehead Fiscal Conservative away from accelerating cuts to make up for any deficits. I'm more inclined to say, screw fiscal conservatism, lean into MMT and get something like this done; but at that point, there's absolutely no reason to avoid stacking UBI with other programs. That would be more effective for the people who need benefits (or this cash) the most. It would also give some leeway to compromise with those fiscal hawks and end up with a VAT that works or legitimate limitations on the programs we can't stack/have to cut. So back to that top bit, I'm not mad at UBI concept but this model is precarious and hinges too closely to Libertarian versions for my comfort. When a dude like Dave Rubin is licking his chops at the possibilities for a bill, you want to evaluate what openings the right leaning cats are seeing. In this case, I think it's pretty clear.