I only zeroed in on revenue because as you stated here you were making profitability part of your case, if you want to say it's too early to double down on revenue that's fine but I would say it's way too early to discuss profitability when AEW is a startup corporation by design instead of say an indy fed that lives and dies by the week to week ticket sales.
But again, if you compare AEW with AAA, for example, they lose that comp too. AAA got their Televisa deal right away (like AEW with TNT) and started doing good business. By year one they had Triplemania I selling 40k tickets and two big shows in L.A (more than 15k paid), by year two they had big shows in México, the U.S and Japan. I just fail to see why I should put AEW above them. AEW's revenue coming from WBD isn't that much more impressive to me to make them leap other companie's hot runs. I guess that's what we are never gonna agree with.
I mean, if Televisa in 1994 had the kind of money WBD has, plus the need for content as current U.S TV networks, who knows what kind of deal they get. Same with All Japan with NTV in the 80's and 90's or AJW with Fuji TV in the 80's. That's kinda were I'm coming from, current TV deals are a massive source of revenue that wrestling has never seen before and it's exclusively something that's been available in the last 10 years.
On the Mid-South/Memphis and CMLL points where we are discussing attendance figures, I have no issue with including the 5-7K arena attendance figures they were doing but then we have to include all of the shows that AEW has done similar numbers and to be honest, I think even when AEW does over 4K on a Dynamite or Collision they are probably pulling in more money from their live gates on those shows even when you adjust for inflation.
I also think you are heavily downplaying how many of those shows those promotions ran for a number of hot periods. Just by the numbers I sent you in that Mid-South link, you have at least four shows in 1984 that had revenues from 300k to 530k (adjusted for inflation). And had at least three in 1978 that racked in 375k, 480k and 710k (adjusted).
We don't have the data of every show, let alone of every gate those promotions did in those hot periods, but what we do have shows is they were generating a lot of money, specially in the context of the time. You also have to factor in that a ton promoters always wanted to downplay how much money they were making because they didn't want the boys to know and ask for more $$$ for their bookings
Jerry Jarret was famous for being a cheap b*stard.
I mentioned JYD/Freebirds because those are the 'super shows' at the Superdome that were doing the 25,000-30,000 figures for Mid-South and I see that as their peak years.
I think that's a mistake, the fact they didn't top a Superdome show like the ones with the Freebirds doesn't take away from the fact that JYD had other very successful programs and later guys like Duggan and DiBiase did as well.
It's like judging Memphis only for the Sputnik Monroe days doing 20k in baseball parks and not taking into account that Jackie Fargo Jerry Lawler also had very successful runs.
AEW is on a decline right now but they've already sold well over 40,000 tickets for 'ALL IN' this year and it's only May. I'd expect that number to go up.
I don't think AEW loses decisively on attendance even in their current down period because they still have 'ALL IN' and they still have the PPVs that are doing anywhere from 7k-10k and random episodes like a 'Big Business' that did close to 10k or that show recently in Vancouver that did 7K. Etc...
Decisevily I'd say they lose to promotions like AWA, CMLL, All Japan and AJW. And specially AWA is really not close breh, that shyt had huge peaks.
With other U.S territories I'd love to have more data than what we have but from what it's available, I don't see how AEW pulls ahead from the promotions we've already discussed (attendance wise).
But again, those were different times, Memphis was selling ringside tickets at $5
but the product was hot as hell. Trying to see it with 2024 eyes, I'm sure they wouldn't be running the Mid-South Colliseum as much as they did, but they could definetely sell out with current prices for the big feuds that involved guys like Fargo and Lawler in the Grizzlies Arena.