I mean, these people all emerged as a reaction to Obama. So it would be an entirely alternate world regardless. You would also have a world where no person of color had ever won so that might motivate turnout as well. It’s kind of hard to say.To be fair, Obama didn't have the whole social media alt-right ecosphere working against him in 2008/2012.
Yes, there was FOX News, which is more than bad enough, but it's not the same. I'm not sure Obama could win in 2024.