i believe errol spence averages something like 70 punches a round and terence crawford averages something like 30 punches a round. those are pretty good averages for a volume puncher and a counter puncher. because of that, i think the realistic way to look at this fight is you either have spence by decision if it goes to points, or you have crawford by knockout. with spence being the busier fighter he is going to have the edge in that aspect if it goes the distance. i believe thats his ceiling. with crawford i set his floor to about danny garcia, meaning that, realistically, crawford at worst does about as good as danny garcia. i think its unrealistic to expect crawford to preform worse than much lesser fighters than himself, which is why i can't pick spence by knockout. in others words, while it can happen, its unrealistic to expect it to happen. so take your pick. i like crawford by knockout. here is why.
what a southpaw doesn't want you to know is that, because of the way they stand, their liver is in front of their body, and because your right elbow is what protects your liver, whenever a southpaw picks up his right elbow to throw his jab his liver will be completely naked and open to a counter right hand.
when errol spence picks up his right elbow and steps in to jab, which he does a lot, you can use that momentum and meet him with the counter right hand to the body, specifically to the liver.
since spence throws a lot of jabs, but not only that, a lot of double jabs and triple jabs, he spends a lot of time with his right elbow up in the air with his liver completely exposed. when you are watching him box pay attention to how big those windows get when he lets his jab go and pay to attention to how long they stay open on double and triple jabs. a right hand to the liver is always the punch that fits into that space. with errol spence, thats a big space.
when you watch errol spence box, you will notice that he will usually throw his left hand off of double and triple jabs, but not off of single jabs. he kind of tells you when he wants to throw that punch.
you want to time him when he turns into his left hand. thats usually going to be on the end of the second jab. if you can time him when he turns into the left hand, usually on the second jab, you will be able to guide him into a check hook and side step the left hand.
spence likes to come in behind a double and triple jab and then throw the shovel hook to the body. thats really his signature punch. the way you can know he wants to throw that punch is because, on the second jab, he will take a wide step, drop low, and cock his left hand down by his hip. but since, unlike a southpaw, by standing orthodox your liver will be behind your body, by pivoting when you throw your check hook, you can snatch your liver away from the left hand he was trying to place downstairs to the body. in this instance its incorrect for you to back up or to shell up. since he comes in on straight lines, you want to pivot off that line. and by pivoting you take away his ability to place his punches on the liver.
the way to box spence is basically to meet him on the way in in two places. you meet him on the jab with the right hand either downstairs or up the middle, like this.
or you meet him when he turns into the left hand with the check hook, like this.
both of those counters interrupt his attack, either when they are just beginning to start, at the jab, or by letting him jab, and catching him coming off the jab and turning into the left hand. the basic idea is that, you want to let him do what he does, but to interrupt him at those two points.
now everything i just said i want you to disregard because i dont believe crawford will be fighting in an orthodox stance and that, for the most part, this fight will be a southpaw vs a southpaw. that changes everything.
when you are boxing and you both jab at the same time your jabs will run parallel.
but when you are boxing with a southpaw and you both jab at the same time your jabs will become obstructed and essentially cancel out.
thats why when a southpaw jabs he can keep you from throwing your jab just by throwing his jab.
when a southpaw jabs his jab will cancel out your jab. when errol spence throws his jab he is basically trying to keep you pinned down. then when you are being pinned down by the jab thats when he can start hitting you with the bulk of his punches. it all starts with the jab. but, if crawford is standing southpaw, his jab no longer has the same effect, and instead of his jab pinning him down and laying a suppressive blanket on top of him to keep him from punching back, his jab is just going to open him up to a completely new set of counter punches from completely different angles. i cant really tell you how thats going to play out. southpaw vs a southpaw can get a little sloppy because they're both not used to it. but i think crawford is more creative and a little quicker on the trigger than spence and his punches come from weird angles that fighters dont see or expect and that, spence being percieved as the fundamentals fighter, is almost too fundamental for his own good in a fight where those fundamentals will be turned upside down as soon as crawford decides to turn southpaw.
yeah this shyt finna be classic.
