Absolut
Legal Bookie
It’s all of NV so far. Same as all the other early votes. GOP has literally never led. You know more about NV than Jon Ralston?That’s all rural Nevada bro. Reno has not been factored in
2024 United States Presidential Election Megathread
- Thread starter CouldntBeMeTho
- Start date
Few points:
1. It’s not a foregone conclusion either will win at this point, still extremely early.
2. Don’t let Republican turnout at early voting be a false signal. They were actively told NOT to do this in 2020 which they have switched their stance on this since the midterms. They could easily be cannibalizing their own votes that would have otherwise come in on Election Day.
3. I don’t trust polls in 2024. Polls with statistical rigor, come up with estimates by aggregating a lot of polls. But garbage in, garbage out and there are a LOT of garbage polls especially if you start looking at these polls based on their cross tabs. Wonky shyt like the Black vote being split 60/40, shyt that obviously isn’t happening. I just don’t know anyone under the age of 40 answering calls from random numbers or responding to random texts. There are bad faith actors when it comes to polling and I don’t trust that sampling in 24 truly captures an accurate picture.
Similar to 2022 where a “red wave” was largely predicted, we saw this didn’t happen. My GUT is telling me Kamala wins in a close one, mainly driven by increased woman turnout. 4% increase of woman turnout nationally mainly driven by reproductive rights should offset the small percentage of low propensity voters coming from minority men defecting to Trump as well as folks abstaining from voting due to apathy from the economy and those turned off by Gaza Conflict.
Anything can happen like we saw in 2016, but I think she will win every state in the Blue Wall and North Carolina.
1. It’s not a foregone conclusion either will win at this point, still extremely early.
2. Don’t let Republican turnout at early voting be a false signal. They were actively told NOT to do this in 2020 which they have switched their stance on this since the midterms. They could easily be cannibalizing their own votes that would have otherwise come in on Election Day.
3. I don’t trust polls in 2024. Polls with statistical rigor, come up with estimates by aggregating a lot of polls. But garbage in, garbage out and there are a LOT of garbage polls especially if you start looking at these polls based on their cross tabs. Wonky shyt like the Black vote being split 60/40, shyt that obviously isn’t happening. I just don’t know anyone under the age of 40 answering calls from random numbers or responding to random texts. There are bad faith actors when it comes to polling and I don’t trust that sampling in 24 truly captures an accurate picture.
Similar to 2022 where a “red wave” was largely predicted, we saw this didn’t happen. My GUT is telling me Kamala wins in a close one, mainly driven by increased woman turnout. 4% increase of woman turnout nationally mainly driven by reproductive rights should offset the small percentage of low propensity voters coming from minority men defecting to Trump as well as folks abstaining from voting due to apathy from the economy and those turned off by Gaza Conflict.
Anything can happen like we saw in 2016, but I think she will win every state in the Blue Wall and North Carolina.
the cac mamba
Veteran
i hope it happens. only way we can have a conversation about fukkin getting rid of it
I Really Mean It
Veteran
marist just dropped a poll that showed kamala up 12 in north carolina and up 10 in georgia among those who voted early.
republicans are leading early vote totals for both states, which means A LOT of republicans are voting for harris right now.
Formerly Black Trash
Philosopher, Connoisseur, Future Legend
Cave Savage
Feminist
She has bad advisors
Hanging around with the Cheneys and largely continuing Biden's pro Israel stance isn't winning her any voters
Hanging around with the Cheneys and largely continuing Biden's pro Israel stance isn't winning her any voters
1/1
Vice President Harris: Trump would have an enemies list. I’ll have a to-do list
To post tweets in this format, more info here: https://www.thecoli.com/threads/tips-and-tricks-for-posting-the-coli-megathread.984734/post-52211196
Vice President Harris: Trump would have an enemies list. I’ll have a to-do list
To post tweets in this format, more info here: https://www.thecoli.com/threads/tips-and-tricks-for-posting-the-coli-megathread.984734/post-52211196
Yagirlcheatinonus
Icon Poster
Not to mention the evil it done to people of color.
1/11
@KamalaHQ
Trump: As president, I will have extreme power. It’s called extreme power
https://video.twimg.com/amplify_video/1848759446006042625/vid/avc1/1294x720/cuWRj66Yca6zIDXd.mp4
2/11
@SpencerDirrig
He will use his "extreme power" to target journalists and political opponents he calls "enemies within." We can't afford Trump in thew White House.
3/11
@Ronxyz00
Unchecked power. No guardrails.
This man is unfit to be President.
4/11
@ZionDarkwood
It’s called a dictatorship!
Trump’s Project 2025 emphasizes a strong centralization of power, particularly in dismantling the administrative state and enforcing conservative policies. The focus is on a "unified plan" and "trained and committed cadre of personnel" to execute this agenda (Page xiv). This will lead to overreach and authoritarian tendencies depending on implementation.
x.com
Project 2025 Mandate For Leadership : Free Download, Borrow, and Streaming : Internet Archive
5/11
@PawlowskiMario
It’s in US constitution that presidents are prevented to have “extreme” power, that’s the whole idea of it
6/11
@taradublinrocks
He can pretend to be the president of his cell block after he gets sentenced next month
7/11
@Abraxsys
It’s called being a dictator.
8/11
@JasADRxquisites
There's no way, That Trump could ever be allowed as president and the United States remain at the same time a free country.
9/11
@LucasSa56947288
What is he talking about?
10/11
@Mamabenergy2
Like Hell you will!
11/11
@GeoffBrown82
Extreme power with immunity. It's a recipe for a catastrophe--an abuse of power that our country has never seen before. Instead of that "shining city on a hill" we would become that post apocalyptic city that lays in ruins. The shining city will be a place that only exists in memory.
To post tweets in this format, more info here: https://www.thecoli.com/threads/tips-and-tricks-for-posting-the-coli-megathread.984734/post-52211196
@KamalaHQ
Trump: As president, I will have extreme power. It’s called extreme power
https://video.twimg.com/amplify_video/1848759446006042625/vid/avc1/1294x720/cuWRj66Yca6zIDXd.mp4
2/11
@SpencerDirrig
He will use his "extreme power" to target journalists and political opponents he calls "enemies within." We can't afford Trump in thew White House.
3/11
@Ronxyz00
Unchecked power. No guardrails.
This man is unfit to be President.
4/11
@ZionDarkwood
It’s called a dictatorship!
Trump’s Project 2025 emphasizes a strong centralization of power, particularly in dismantling the administrative state and enforcing conservative policies. The focus is on a "unified plan" and "trained and committed cadre of personnel" to execute this agenda (Page xiv). This will lead to overreach and authoritarian tendencies depending on implementation.
x.com
Project 2025 Mandate For Leadership : Free Download, Borrow, and Streaming : Internet Archive
5/11
@PawlowskiMario
It’s in US constitution that presidents are prevented to have “extreme” power, that’s the whole idea of it
6/11
@taradublinrocks
He can pretend to be the president of his cell block after he gets sentenced next month
7/11
@Abraxsys
It’s called being a dictator.
8/11
@JasADRxquisites
There's no way, That Trump could ever be allowed as president and the United States remain at the same time a free country.
9/11
@LucasSa56947288
What is he talking about?
10/11
@Mamabenergy2
Like Hell you will!
11/11
@GeoffBrown82
Extreme power with immunity. It's a recipe for a catastrophe--an abuse of power that our country has never seen before. Instead of that "shining city on a hill" we would become that post apocalyptic city that lays in ruins. The shining city will be a place that only exists in memory.
To post tweets in this format, more info here: https://www.thecoli.com/threads/tips-and-tricks-for-posting-the-coli-megathread.984734/post-52211196
kevin arnold
Superstar
Might actually motivate more people on the democrats side to show up
IAMDetroit
"Yall Nig*as"
Cryptocurrency Scarface
Coinbased
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