Here's what's keeping me positive.
Many people are making comparisons to the 2016 or 2020 election, when this feels more like the 2022 midterms to me. 2016 and 2020 were pre-Roe. Midterms were the first mass elections after that decision. And Republicans were all saying Red Wave, Red Tsunami because the polls had them way up. What happened? The Dems overperformed the polls, having the best midterms in decades. You look at the Iowa poll that has Kamala up or Ohio with Kamala gaining ground, it's clear that decision is bringing women out in force. It's abortion but also the bigger issue of men being in control of women's bodies. This is their time to handle that.
Early vote overall is favoring Kamala. I expect Republicans to gain some on Election Day but many of those past Election Day voters are voting early this time, since Trump himself is pushing early voting. So I expect that to be less of an impact.
Lots of shenanigans with the polls. Leaving blocks of major cities out, some Republican pollsters admitting undersampling women, youth, black.
Polymarket is a juiced market. I believe it was Elon making that $30 million bet that made the news. Billionaires make those type of bets, you have to use Crypto, he's familiar with that. He also was paying $49 referrals, $1 million a day scam lottery, $75+ million with his Super Pac etc.
If you look at the Senate Races in all the Swing States. Dems are leading every single one. Somebody said those Senate races polls are probably more accurate than the Presidential ones.
I believe there is a strong woman, youth, independent vote for Kamala.
Also, Trump fatigue and this is traditional Republicans chance to end Trump/MAGA. I think there is a big never Trumper vote. They don't have to vote for Kamala, they can simply stay home, don't vote.