WHO WINS?


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Legal

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Absolutely no cot damn way turnout is down.

My parents live in the NJ burbs and early voting was packed. my dad had never seen anything like it in 30 years. and that's a a reliably blue state (albeit the county leans red)

This is such a weird argument to make when we literally have numbers. The black vote coming out of Atlanta right now is insane. I've heard people argue rural black people tend to vote in person instead of mail, hence why numbers are down there but the big cities have huge gains.

We have numbers from Detroit, the black vote is wild there.

We have numbers from PA, the black vote doesn't look great in Philly but is solid. It's expected to grow on election day. Remember, this isn't 2020: there will be more diverse voting on election day because covid/quarantines aren't keeping people home.

There are crazy high numbers from WI, specifically the cities. Black people are voting.

Dunno about the black vote in NV but I'd imagine the Hispanic vote is way more important there. And for all the handwringing about NV...given that young/new voters are auto registered as independents there, it seems very likely that Kamala is up in the early vote despite republicans having the advantage so far. I feel good about that state.

Y'all gone learn about checking tweets before you ready to them. The person who wrote it is a Fox News contributor. Obviously anything's possible, but I've yet to be disappointed by taking most things said by their contributors with a grain of salt.
 

Piff Perkins

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Not taking anything away from Kamala when she wins, but Trump has run one of the most strategically unsound campaigns in modern US Presidential history.

Doesn't matter how good the campaign managers (LaCivita and Wiles) are if the candidate is an assclown who doesn't take counsel and thinks he knows best.

This is why I'm not worried. Not saying Kamala is a lock, I understand I could be wrong. But based on what I've seen so far plus knowing one candidate has a legit GOTV operation while the other doesn't....this seems clear cut to me. Trump is basically praying that some of the least likely voters - ie white men who have not voted in recent elections - will save him on election day. Yet he has no real operation set up to reach those guys and tell them to vote. Dunno about you guys but I'm getting all types of texts from the Kamala campaign. As I type this, I literally JUST got a text lmao. Trump is hoping his guys just get off their asses on election day, or go after work. That's not reliable...

I think she's gonna win most of the battleground states, and I think there's an entire legal and social media apparatus in place to challenge it. So there will be fukkery, there may be violence, but at the end of the day on Jan 6th she's going to be certified.
 

The ADD

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This is why I'm not worried. Not saying Kamala is a lock, I understand I could be wrong. But based on what I've seen so far plus knowing one candidate has a legit GOTV operation while the other doesn't....this seems clear cut to me. Trump is basically praying that some of the least likely voters - ie white men who have not voted in recent elections - will save him on election day. Yet he has no real operation set up to reach those guys and tell them to vote. Dunno about you guys but I'm getting all types of texts from the Kamala campaign. As I type this, I literally JUST got a text lmao. Trump is hoping his guys just get off their asses on election day, or go after work. That's not reliable...

I think she's gonna win most of the battleground states, and I think there's an entire legal and social media apparatus in place to challenge it. So there will be fukkery, there may be violence, but at the end of the day on Jan 6th she's going to be certified.
Was thinking about her GOTV earlier. I opt out of the text but the mail has been crazy. I moved in with my fiancé so I switched counties. I noticed today they are addressing GOTV mailers to us combined now and individually depending on the organization. I don’t remember getting this much correspondence in previous campaigns. They canvassed here last weekend and made sure to ask for both of us.
 
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