WHO WINS?


  • Total voters
    285

Nero Christ

Sniper out now on all digital platforms brev
Joined
Jan 15, 2017
Messages
40,813
Reputation
12,480
Daps
144,258
Reppin
St. Lucia
lol retired because of the all time stock market under biden you can't make this up :mjlol:

C_KUTyoWsAAxKJx.jpg
 

FAH1223

Go Wizards, Go Terps, Go Packers!
Staff member
Supporter
Joined
May 16, 2012
Messages
71,962
Reputation
8,192
Daps
217,824
Reppin
WASHINGTON, DC
For some of y'all who are jumpy, I do get it, especially if you lived through 2016 and even 2020, where it was closer than the polls had figured. I'm jumpy even though I feel reasonably good about Kamala's chances even with all the conservative fukkery going on.

But I would remind people who are jumpy of a couple things:

  1. So far, we've seen polls moving back toward Kamala in the last ten days, whereas in 2016, they moved toward Trump in the last ten days.
  2. They moved toward Trump in 2016 because of the Comey letter. Biden's comments are not in any way the level of damaging as the Comey letter.
  3. Trump made it closer than the polling in 2020, but still lost. There is a reasonable suggestion that he won in 2016 and kept it close in 2020 by maxing or near maxing out his voter base. He's got less room to grow his base in 2024 than Kamala has to grow hers, especially with women, and...
  4. ...the polls missed way to the right in 2022 because they underestimated how many women came over to vote for Democrats.
  5. I think it's worth noting that in 2022, in the middle of an inflationary period and the start of tech layoffs, the Dems held onto the Senate and nearly won the house. In a midterm. With a Dem as POTUS. That is, let's put it this way, extraordinary. It seems like economic concerns have been backseated in a lot of voters minds for concerns about their rights/culture wars, and that probably hasn't changed that much in two years.

Obviously, Trump can win because he has a path. But it's a narrow one, and he is working his ass off to make it narrower with every campaign event. Everything went just right for him in 2016, and he barely won. Kamala is in an objectively better position than he is. She can lose from that position, but it's going to take pretty much everything going right for Trump again as it did eight years ago, and from what we can tell with some early vote data and even some of these polls that aren't herding basically moving to Kamala, it's going to be harder for him to get what he needs than it was in 2016.

I always mentally prep for a Trump victory, but I also try not to let that color what we're seeing right now. He can win, but it's going to be harder for him than it was in 2020, when he lost, much less than it was for him in 2016. Demographics have finally started to move against him in response to the new voters he activated via the MAGA movement's beginnings in 2015 based on the data we've been able to gather across the last few years.

Excellent analysis. I’ll be drumming this into people if she wins.

Also, the Washington State Primary Rule.
 

hashmander

Hale End
Supporter
Joined
Jan 17, 2013
Messages
18,899
Reputation
4,518
Daps
80,703
Reppin
The Arsenal
I'm hearing Republicans are out voting Dems in Texas. Cruz probably safe..


fukk
you're hearing that? it's not a given that republicans outnumber democrats in texas? when you have the same scum governor, attorney general, etc for 10+ years i assume republicans outnumber democrats. the only time you're going to get change is when republicans and indies are fed up enough to switch sides.
 

taker597

Superstar
Joined
Nov 19, 2016
Messages
17,801
Reputation
1,078
Daps
59,159
you're hearing that? it's not a given that republicans outnumber democrats in texas? when you have the same scum governor, attorney general, etc for 10+ years i assume republicans outnumber democrats. the only time you're going to get change is when republicans and indies are fed up enough to switch sides.
I heard positive vibes about some hard red county being blue, but then a lot of talk record high voting in reds
 

bnew

Veteran
Joined
Nov 1, 2015
Messages
54,926
Reputation
8,165
Daps
155,313
I don't think putting your name on a garbage truck is the own he thinks it is. Who ever is running that campaign is doing a terrible job. I'm so glad Tuesday will be the end of this shyt show.

lesser of two evils, it's this or keep the trump puerto rico garbage headlines as the top search results.

edit:

i just checked on duckduckgo , google and Nitter and search results for "trump" and "garbage" show news about trump garbage truck and him calling Kamala staff(people around her) garbage and biden saying garbage.. the search results likely changed on all platforms. they successfully hijacked the keyword and steered the narrative elsewhere.
 

((ReFleXioN)) EteRNaL

RIP MR. SMOKE
Joined
May 1, 2012
Messages
19,316
Reputation
7,109
Daps
91,286
he's keyword hijacking, so people don't hear or talk about the Puerto Rico remarks anymore.

Yup. And it's obvious. Like drake trying to hijack the bbl drizzy shyt but failing.

He's focused on the garbage part when he should be focused on hijacking the keyword Puerto Rican :mjlol: .....plenty of Puerto Ricans don't even know about bidens comments. So they're just gonna see trump in a garbage truck and think he's mocking them:pachaha:
 
Top