2022 Midterm Elections: NO RED WAVE! - GOP Takes U.S. House; Dems Keep U.S. Senate

Piff Perkins

Piff Perkins

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Rhakim said:
Bigger L would have been stacking up a few more Senate seats. :francis:


I don't think people realize how ugly the Senate picture is looking the next couple of cycles. In 2024 the Dems have to defend 23 senate seats, the Republicans only have to defend 10. Seats the democrats are defending include Joe Manchin in West Virginia as well as seats in Arizona, Montana, Nevada, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Maine. Meanwhile, the most flippable seat the Republicans have to defend is.....Texas? Florida?

Just getting 50 right now would be horrific, because it basically means that if Joe Manchin doesn't run for reelection (or switches to the Republicans), then the Democrats just about automatically lose the Senate in 2024. Even with 51, that would mean if Manchin leaves then they have to go 8 for 8 in holding onto the battleground states (and will Tester run again in Montana? Could be fukked there too.) Even if Manchin doesn't leave, they still can only lose 1 of those 7 battlegrounds.

So it's virtually impossible for the Democrats to pick up Senate seats in 2024, and there's a dozen different combinations that could have them losing the Senate altogether. Which either means total gridlock if Dems still squeak out the White House, or Desantis with Senate power.


2026 isn't much better. Dems have to defend in Colorado, New Mexico, Michigan, Georgia, Virginia, and New Hampshire. Republicans have to defend in Montana, Maine, North Carolina....and I guess Iowa? Hopefully 4 more years of demographic shift will make that year a fairer fight, but if they fall behind in 2024 then it will still be a very tough road to get it back in 2026.
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Outside of Manchin's seat, I don't think 2024 will be that bad with an improved economy and Trump likely fukking things up one more time.

On one hand dems are prob in a better spot than imagined due to the two GA seats. The only real misfire in my eyes ins NC 2020, where a sex scandal doomed what would have been a pick up for democrats. I see people hand wringing over Wisconsin but at the end of the day Barnes ran nearly 4 points behind Evers. That's a candidate problem, not a money problem. They needed better candidate recruiting. Somebody should have trotted Russ Feingold back out lol...
 
J

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Rhakim said:
Bigger L would have been stacking up a few more Senate seats. :francis:


I don't think people realize how ugly the Senate picture is looking the next couple of cycles. In 2024 the Dems have to defend 23 senate seats, the Republicans only have to defend 10. Seats the democrats are defending include Joe Manchin in West Virginia as well as seats in Arizona, Montana, Nevada, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Maine. Meanwhile, the most flippable seat the Republicans have to defend is.....Texas? Florida?

Being stuck at 50 right now would be terrible, because it basically means that if Joe Manchin doesn't run for reelection (or switches to the Republicans, or loses his election), then the Democrats just about automatically lose the Senate in 2024. Even if they hit 51, that would mean if Manchin leaves then they have to go 8 for 8 in holding onto the battleground states (and will Tester run again in Montana? Could be fukked there too.) Even if they get 51 and Manchin holds his seat, they still can only lose 1 of those 8 battlegrounds.

So it's virtually impossible for the Democrats to pick up Senate seats in 2024, and there's a dozen different combinations that could have them losing the Senate altogether. Which either means total gridlock if Dems still squeak out the White House, or Desantis with Senate power.


2026 isn't much better. Dems have to defend in Colorado, New Mexico, Michigan, Georgia, Virginia, and New Hampshire. Republicans have to defend in Montana, Maine, North Carolina....and I guess Iowa? Hopefully 4 more years of demographic shift will make that year a fairer fight, but if they fall behind in 2024 then it will still be a very tough road to get it back in 2026.
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Could’ve had North Carolina and Wisconsin if they didn’t shyt the bed and give Val Demings the lions share of support.
 
acri1

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Rhakim said:
Bigger L would have been stacking up a few more Senate seats. :francis:


I don't think people realize how ugly the Senate picture is looking the next couple of cycles. In 2024 the Dems have to defend 23 senate seats, the Republicans only have to defend 10. Seats the democrats are defending include Joe Manchin in West Virginia as well as seats in Arizona, Montana, Nevada, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Maine. Meanwhile, the most flippable seat the Republicans have to defend is.....Texas? Florida?

Being stuck at 50 right now would be terrible, because it basically means that if Joe Manchin doesn't run for reelection (or switches to the Republicans, or loses his election), then the Democrats just about automatically lose the Senate in 2024. Even if they hit 51, that would mean if Manchin leaves then they have to go 8 for 8 in holding onto the battleground states (and will Tester run again in Montana? Could be fukked there too.) Even if they get 51 and Manchin holds his seat, they still can only lose 1 of those 8 battlegrounds.

So it's virtually impossible for the Democrats to pick up Senate seats in 2024, and there's a dozen different combinations that could have them losing the Senate altogether. Which either means total gridlock if Dems still squeak out the White House, or Desantis with Senate power.


2026 isn't much better. Dems have to defend in Colorado, New Mexico, Michigan, Georgia, Virginia, and New Hampshire. Republicans have to defend in Montana, Maine, North Carolina....and I guess Iowa? Hopefully 4 more years of demographic shift will make that year a fairer fight, but if they fall behind in 2024 then it will still be a very tough road to get it back in 2026.
Click to expand...

Sounds like it's time to make DC and Puerto Rico states :takedat:

But yeah Biden needs to focus on pushing as many judges thru as possible in the next two years if the Senate holds.
 
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MushroomX

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The_Unchosen_One said:
She is having a MELTDOWN on twitter right now :russ:
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:wow: Can't wait until the Indian Spam Algorithm starts giving her advertisements about Turkish Hair Transplants and Luzhou Chinese Liposuction to go with Discounted Mein Kampf Booklets because Elon Musk fukking up her social media platform of choice when 2024 comes around.

:sas2: ITS FACELIFT BAR TIME. GREAT DEALS. LOOK YOUNG AGAIN! :blessed:
 
CrimsonTider

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Loose said:
Unfortunately he basically played interference for Republicans agreeing with them that bail reform is the reason for high crime.
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And what was the Dems response?

They can’t expect people to vote for them when it looks like they aren’t serious about separating criminals from society
 
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