2022 Midterm Elections: NO RED WAVE! - GOP Takes U.S. House; Dems Keep U.S. Senate

[BigMoneyGrip]

And on the other side you have inflation, gas prices, trans stuff, and critical race theory stuff all working against the Dems, Incumbant Democratic president having around 43-45% approval rating, incumbant party often losing seats in the midterms, generic House polls still showing the Dems losing seats, and the polls having underpredicted Republican turnout in 3 straight elections because Trump supporters just plain don't answer pollsters and that doesn't seem to ever get factored in.

I'll agree some recent developments have been encouraging. But "encouraging" means reducing a 60-seat bloodbath to just a 20 seat loss. The pundits have been wrong plenty of times before, but it was striking to me that literally every person they talked to on NPR said that they expected the Republicans to win the House.

Checking FiveThirtyEight, they have the polls still favoring Republicans too:

2022 House Forecast

Latest forecasts and polls for the 2022 House elections from ABC News’s FiveThirtyEight

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

74% chance of Republican victory, 26% chance of Democratic victory. So there's a real shot for Dems, but they're pretty far behind still.

Gas prices still going down bro…

 

[BigMoneyGrip]

interesting play. because i assume this restores 15 weeks of abortion rights to women in red states that banned it?

pro lifers would be furious

edit: wait a second its just a 15 week ban... but states can still ban it completely? the hell is this bullshyt

Double down brehs

 

[Wild self]

Double down brehs

They gonna lose at least 5 seats, thinkng that those suburban women not gonna lead the charge.

 

[mastermind]

Hell, I think there is a possibility that this is true, but the Dems still lose the House because of how the districts are drawn up

I feel this has been the story since 2020 redistricting. The Dems will probably lose the house because of the new maps. They could get more votes in house races and still los.

 

[storyteller]

I can't agree that it's fool's gold based on some of these state elections that have happened. I think it'll be interesting to see just how much it matters in two months.

The most promising thing to me, is that the Republicans have been fishing for wedge issues and completely blanked so far. They've leaned into LGBT issues (particularly trans) and abortion, but neither of those seem to be helping much at all. They've got two months to fish out a scandal or I think they fail to hold momentum. My main concerns are one you mentioned and a second bit...

I mean, @Rhakim in that post literally said there was a way and used a data projection to show the Dems with a 1-in-4 chance.

There are a lot of structural disadvantages that make it hard for Dems to retain the House, but if the polls and pundits miss that abortion rights are a legit third rail like Social Security, who knows? Hell, I think there is a possibility that this is true, but the Dems still lose the House because of how the districts are drawn up.

This has been my biggest concern (along with straight up voter suppression which we're going to see worse than ever imo). My other concern is that polling has flopped in some places as a predictor for election results. That at least partially explains the under-performance down ballot when Biden won. The Dems obviously didn't do poorly, but we were hoping for better. We REALLY can't afford Republicans overachieving compared to current projections.

 

[JJ Lions]

This just fires up Dems

 

[hashmander]

i respect it. they are letting voters know where they stand in a clear and concise manner. they are telling the voters, this is what a republican house and senate will push for and then in 2024 you need to deliver the white house so we can go from pushing for to enacting. and anything we decide will be deemed legal by our supreme court.

the ball is in the voter's court. can't feign ignorance and i didn't know ... blah blah.

 

[☑︎#VoteDemocrat]

If you’re losing progressives then…

There’s going to be a backlash to all of this

 

[bnew]

 

[bnew]

If you’re losing progressives then…

There’s going to be a backlash to all of this

no elected official is a prison abolitionists. twwet makes no sense since there isn't a single prison thats closing down because of prison abolitionists and releasing prisoners.

 

[Pressure]

no elected official is a prison abolitionists. twwet makes no sense since there isn't a single prison thats closing down because of prison abolitionists and releasing prisoners.

 

[☑︎#VoteDemocrat]

this is precisely why "pro choice" is the movement not "pro abortion" because if that was, these fukking idiots would have us in handmaids tale

This is a prime example of no matter how "left" I consider myself, I can't align myself with class reductionist online LARPers who have no skin in the game. This is primarily why I did not and will not ever support the sanders core of assclowns who's commitment to fukking up actual progress is undefeated.

 

[BiggWebb79]

 

[☑︎#VoteDemocrat]

no elected official is a prison abolitionists. twwet makes no sense since there isn't a single prison thats closing down because of prison abolitionists and releasing prisoners.

Yall did the same thing with "abolish the police" and "single payer"

It should have been :REFORM THE POLICE

and UNIVERSAL HEALTHCARE

You fukking clowns are just committed to achieving nothing and using that lack of progress to further fuel this insular grift.

 

[No1]

i am getting spammed with messages WTF, just started on thursday, 3-5 messages/day for candidates all over the country including hella GOP candidates wtf. this is annoying

shyt is ridiculous. I got to check whatever list I’m on. It’s making me upset.