Atmosphere is starting to favor democrats but will people get off their ass to vote?
I don't even see the DNC chair pressing the abortion issue.
2022 Midterm Elections: NO RED WAVE! - GOP Takes U.S. House; Dems Keep U.S. Senate
- Thread starter FAH1223
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I don't even see the DNC chair pressing the abortion issue.
No sense in preaching to the choir.
The democrats gonna gain 5 seats in the Senate. PA, WI, NC, and OH in play
They are not winning OH. I don’t see the gop senate losing if the governor wins that state.
Pretty much. The only call I feel comfortable making is that Big Gretch gets reelected
Not even going to try to predict the House/Senate this cycle, too many close races and unreliable polls
And on the other side you have inflation, gas prices, trans stuff, and critical race theory stuff all working against the Dems, Incumbant Democratic president having around 43-45% approval rating, incumbant party often losing seats in the midterms, generic House polls still showing the Dems losing seats, and the polls having underpredicted Republican turnout in 3 straight elections because Trump supporters just plain don't answer pollsters and that doesn't seem to ever get factored in.
I'll agree some recent developments have been encouraging. But "encouraging" means reducing a 60-seat bloodbath to just a 20 seat loss. The pundits have been wrong plenty of times before, but it was striking to me that literally every person they talked to on NPR said that they expected the Republicans to win the House.
Checking FiveThirtyEight, they have the polls still favoring Republicans too:
2022 House Forecast
Latest forecasts and polls for the 2022 House elections from ABC News’s FiveThirtyEight
74% chance of Republican victory, 26% chance of Democratic victory. So there's a real shot for Dems, but they're pretty far behind still.
AquaCityBoy
Veteran
I've been feeling for a while now that Roe v Wade is fool's gold for the Democrats, but I didn't want to ruin the little powwow in here so I let it go.
CEO of Morgan Industries
Superstar
I can't agree that it's fool's gold based on some of these state elections that have happened. I think it'll be interesting to see just how much it matters in two months.I've been feeling for a while now that Roe v Wade is fool's gold for the Democrats, but I didn't want to ruin the little powwow in here so I let it go.
Neo. The Only. The One.
THE ONE
And on the other side you have inflation, gas prices, trans stuff, and critical race theory stuff all working against the Dems, Incumbant Democratic president having around 43-45% approval rating, incumbant party often losing seats in the midterms, generic House polls still showing the Dems losing seats, and the polls having underpredicted Republican turnout in 3 straight elections because Trump supporters just plain don't answer pollsters and that doesn't seem to ever get factored in.
I'll agree some recent developments have been encouraging. But "encouraging" means reducing a 60-seat bloodbath to just a 20 seat loss. The pundits have been wrong plenty of times before, but it was striking to me that literally every person they talked to on NPR said that they expected the Republicans to win the House.
Checking FiveThirtyEight, they have the polls still favoring Republicans too:
2022 House Forecast
Latest forecasts and polls for the 2022 House elections from ABC News’s FiveThirtyEightprojects.fivethirtyeight.com
74% chance of Republican victory, 26% chance of Democratic victory. So there's a real shot for Dems, but they're pretty far behind still.
Y'all just won't stop counting Joe out... every time y'all say there's no way, he finds one, but y'all still counting him out.
Biden is just at his 2 year mark, and he's running circles around even the Obama presidency.
the cac mamba
Veteran
interesting play. because i assume this restores 15 weeks of abortion rights to women in red states that banned it?pro lifers would be furious
edit: wait a second
its just a 15 week ban... but states can still ban it completely? the hell is this bullshyt 
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CEO of Morgan Industries
Superstar
I mean, @Rhakim in that post literally said there was a way and used a data projection to show the Dems with a 1-in-4 chance.
There are a lot of structural disadvantages that make it hard for Dems to retain the House, but if the polls and pundits miss that abortion rights are a legit third rail like Social Security, who knows? Hell, I think there is a possibility that this is true, but the Dems still lose the House because of how the districts are drawn up.
There are a lot of structural disadvantages that make it hard for Dems to retain the House, but if the polls and pundits miss that abortion rights are a legit third rail like Social Security, who knows? Hell, I think there is a possibility that this is true, but the Dems still lose the House because of how the districts are drawn up.
pro lifers would be furious
Gives democrats a chance to call the Republicans in states with barely any exceptions as radicals.
CEO of Morgan Industries
Superstar
And it also risks Trumpers deciding that the GOP are RINOs. Trump would jump on this if they tried it.
Interesting that the GOP feels it has to respond. I wonder what their numbers are saying.
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You've only named 4 seats. North Carolina will be hard, and an Ohio pickup would be wild.
Plus they have to defend Nevada, New Hampshire, Arizona, and Georgia.
FiveThirtyEight gives about a 14% chance (less than 1 in 7) of the Dems picking up 4 seats. Meanwhile there's over 30% chance that the Republicans end up being the ones picking up seats.
I do think (hope) the Dems will hold onto the Senate. And seat pickups are possible. But getting more than 1-2 net pickups is not going to be easy, and any pickup at all is by no means assured.