2022 Midterm Elections: NO RED WAVE! - GOP Takes U.S. House; Dems Keep U.S. Senate

BigMoneyGrip

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Yeah I'm not really paying attention to the ballot favoring stuff. I'm going by what I see and hear on the ground. As of right now, Dems have the juice.

How is that going to play in the next 60 days, not sure. But dems have the juice at least for now.

Trump is also an albatross around the neck of the republican candidates. So that's gonna factor in.

And then you got Biden courting non MAGA Republicans. All of those things could come together to make for a huge democratic win.

With that being said, we shall see.
Facts and it’s going to be those suburban white women who will deliver the house to the Dems because of the dobbs decision… Again these fools in here keep ignoring what happened in fukkin Kansas… A deep red state.. Them chics voting Dems down ballot come election night.. They telling pollsters they voting gop but they getting in that booth and voting Dem..
 

FAH1223

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Generic ballot favoring Dems +1 will still deliver the House to Republicans, due to how voters are concentrated and gerrymandering.

Dems overall won the House votes by over 3% in 2020 (50.8% to 47.7%) and that was still only enough for a 222 to 213 nailbiter win.
Yeah. Dems need to be D+2 minimum on generic ballot to have a better shot at winning the House.
 

Professor Emeritus

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Yeah I'm not really paying attention to the ballot favoring stuff. I'm going by what I see and hear on the ground. As of right now, Dems have the juice.

How is that going to play in the next 60 days, not sure. But dems have the juice at least for now.

Trump is also an albatross around the neck of the republican candidates. So that's gonna factor in.

And then you got Biden courting non MAGA Republicans. All of those things could come together to make for a huge democratic win.

With that being said, we shall see.


I'm rooting for that. The best thing is that turnout juice isn't exactly clear right now, while six months ago the turnout power was HEAVILY favoring Republicans. Have my finger crossed the Democratic anger will fuel turnout and the Biden wins will keep him from losing all the moderates, but I really have no clue what will happen yet.

I'd easily believe a Democratic Senate win of 52 or 53 seats and a House win, or a Republican Senate win of 52 or 53 seats and a House win, or the Senate/House ending up split in either direction. It's that unclear right now.


Edit: FiveThirtyEight has it even more wide-open than I said.


Right now it's 47% that the Democrats will win 50-52 seats. So that's the most likely range. But that still leaves 30% chance that Republicans win 51 or more seats, and a 23% chance the Democrats win 53 or more. Huge range of undecided seats and who knows how that might continue to change.
 

JJ Lions

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Yeah, it's insane the Walker/Warnock race is close. Herschel Walker is a complete disaster. I like looking at the average of polls. Anybody scared to debate, answer questions shouldn't hold any office.

Real Clear Politics has Walker up 0.5
Five Thirty Eight has Warnock up 1.1


 

FAH1223

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Yeah, it's insane the Walker/Warnock race is close. Herschel Walker is a complete disaster. I like looking at the average of polls. Anybody scared to debate, answer questions shouldn't hold any office.

Real Clear Politics has Walker up 0.5
Five Thirty Eight has Warnock up 1.1


I think it’s clear it’s going to a run-off in January
 
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