Yeah I'm not really paying attention to the ballot favoring stuff. I'm going by what I see and hear on the ground. As of right now, Dems have the juice.
How is that going to play in the next 60 days, not sure. But dems have the juice at least for now.
Trump is also an albatross around the neck of the republican candidates. So that's gonna factor in.
And then you got Biden courting non MAGA Republicans. All of those things could come together to make for a huge democratic win.
With that being said, we shall see.
I'm rooting for that. The best thing is that turnout juice isn't exactly clear right now, while six months ago the turnout power was HEAVILY favoring Republicans. Have my finger crossed the Democratic anger will fuel turnout and the Biden wins will keep him from losing all the moderates, but I really have no clue what will happen yet.
I'd easily believe a Democratic Senate win of 52 or 53 seats and a House win, or a Republican Senate win of 52 or 53 seats and a House win, or the Senate/House ending up split in either direction. It's that unclear right now.
Edit: FiveThirtyEight has it even more wide-open than I said.
Latest forecasts and polls for the 2022 Senate elections from ABC News’s FiveThirtyEight
projects.fivethirtyeight.com
Right now it's 47% that the Democrats will win 50-52 seats. So that's the most likely range. But that still leaves 30% chance that Republicans win 51 or more seats, and a 23% chance the Democrats win 53 or more. Huge range of undecided seats and who knows how that might continue to change.
Trafalgar polling Vermont