Zion Williamson Bust Watch

[ISO]

It's going to take some sort of miracle for him to "comfortably" average those numbers.

For starters, for him to average five assists, either Lonzo and/or Jrue and/or Ingram will have to go down injured (he's NOT averaging that amount of assists if they all stay healthy), or the Pelicans have the most high-powered offense in history for all four of them to average a high-amount of assists. And if the former ends up being the result, and he averages five assists - 16 points on 52 FG% seems abnormally high that he'd be producing at a rate for a rookie on an understrength lottery team, likely playing in a position and a role that he's not comfortable in (which would affect his efficiency). And if the latter is true, then the Pelicans would likely be the #1 seed.

LeBron was nowhere near that efficient in his first season, and he was far more advanced as a scorer than Zion was at the same age.

I think it's safe to say he's not going to be comfortably averaging those numbers. Plus, nobody should be looking at his box score #s to evaluate his season/growth. Y'all nikkas need to come up off that.

LeBron also played in the 2003 NBA, in a completely different role playing 1-3, as a playmaker shot creator and took many jumpers. He’s a very different player from LeBron.

16 points on 52% shouldn’t be out of the question. Even without a jumper Zion is going to eat in the open floor and in the post with his quick spin and drop steps and just sheer mass and quickness.

He will struggle some nights of course but a lot of these bigs will also be destroyed by 285 lb. with a 45 inch vert too regardless of his wingspan.

What numbers do you project? What type of impact do you project?

 

[Kami]

The fact this Defensive Tackle was trying to wear some PGs instead of Air Commandos ,and he couldn't control his weight prior to the start of his first Summer League is telling ,but hopefully he does like Blake Griffin and becomes a complete bball player.I really wonder what his work ethic is like the real deal not all the fluff jobs Coach K and the Pelicans are giving him.

Blake griffin is 6’10 homie

 

[HTXBreh]

Blake griffin is 6’10 homie

Im speaking in the since of going from freak athlete to well rounded player

 

[Miggs]

He'll have a decent rookie year, hes not gonna win ROY and his stats IMO wont be that impressive because hes sharing the floor

with Jrue,Lonzo,Ingram...thats gonna take away from his numbers.NO way in hell he averages 5 dimes

I think realistically hes gonna put up 12-13 PPG/6 RPG.

 

[Dr. Fauci]

Dudes is about to average at the very least 16,8,5 on like 55% FG

ROY award coming right up

Yall trippin if you think this boy about to be a bust only way it happens is when he gets injured

He didnt make it through a half of nba basketball.

 

[Bledswole]

He didnt make it through a half of nba basketball.

Ok here we go basing guys whole career off summer league

You haven’t learned yet?

 

[Dr. Fauci]

He shot 64% FT....33% from college 3. To say his shot is a work in progress would be accurate and maybe an understatment from the eye test

His game doesnt match his size in the least bit. Dunks are worth 2 points regardless of "flash"...outside of transition im confused where hes going to score vs NBA players.


Were gonna find out...watch that video against "backup" NBA players and tell me something doesnt seem off

 

[Gil Scott-Heroin]

LeBron also played in the 2003 NBA, in a completely different role playing 1-3, as a playmaker shot creator and took many jumpers. He’s a very different player from LeBron.

Oh, no doubt, but Zion's going to learn very quickly that he won't be able to charge through the lane nor grab the second-chance rebounds that supplemented the majority of his scoring production in college. He's going to have to take more jumpers, and he's going to have to take more shots that he isn't typically used to taking, against greater pressure, and bigger and better defenders.

And he certainly doesn't strike me as someone who's just going to take the easy way out on offense (à la Julius Randle).

16 points on 52% shouldn’t be out of the question. Even without a jumper Zion is going to eat in the open floor and in the post with his quick spin and drop steps and just sheer mass and quickness.

In a vacuum, it's definitely not out of the question. But it won't happen in junction with him averaging five assists - the circumstances set up for him to average that amount won't be there for him to average those points on that efficiency. He's not going to have the possessions for starters, and it'd take some all-time great performance from the Pelicans as a unit for him to have the luxury of averaging those type of numbers (or a # of the starters get injured).

And I don't know if the Pelicans will want to heap an unnecessary workload on him in his rookie season and risk injury.

It goes without saying that if he gets chances on the break, he'll eat, but his "mass and quickness' is only going to help him so much against NBA defenders in the post. Not saying you're guilty of this, but folks shouldn't make the mistake of thinking his grown man v. kids routine is going to be a reflection for what he'll do in the league, especially when most of the time, he saw little-to-no resistance in the post in college. If he had the appropriate height and wingspan, then it'd definitely mitigate the transition, but since he doesn't, it's going to take him a lot longer to work things out.

What numbers do you project? What type of impact do you project?

I can't really predict his numbers since it's going to be entirely reliant on his role and minutes (nor will his #s really reflect how well he's performing). But I'm definitely not expecting some other-worldly type shyt from him, certainly not early on anyway, especially given the Pels will have to work out how space the floor - it's not like he and Favors can operate in the same spaces with Lonzo and Ingram in the lineup.

 

[Gil Scott-Heroin]

He shot 64% FT....33% from college 3. To say his shot is a work in progress would be accurate and maybe an understatment from the eye test

His game doesnt match his size in the least bit. Dunks are worth 2 points regardless of "flash"...outside of transition im confused where hes going to score vs NBA players.


Were gonna find out...watch that video against "backup" NBA players and tell me something doesnt seem off

Something seemed off with him in college, but he was just so physically dominant that he was easily able to cover up those times when you'd question his offense. Folks would soon forget those down periods because they'd be engulfed with the highlight plays and commentary. I mean the 4-5 jumpshots he took in that SL game, were not only mechanically flawed, but since he doesn't have any lift on his shot, they were either getting blocked or very close to being so - struggling to get off your jumpshot over and over isn't a good sign.

Unfortunately, I think a lot of folks are going to be in for a rude awakening.

 

[rapbeats]

The fact this Defensive Tackle was trying to wear some PGs instead of Air Commandos ,and he couldn't control his weight prior to the start of his first Summer League is telling ,but hopefully he does like Blake Griffin and becomes a complete bball player.I really wonder what his work ethic is like the real deal not all the fluff jobs Coach K and the Pelicans are giving him.

i dont like talking about work ethic when you're dealing with monsters sized dudes like him or shaq. reason being. normal people think all you have to do is.... to keep your weight down. that does not work for a dude who's walking weight if he was not a ball player would be in the 300's. think about that for a moment. his walking weight would be in the 3 hunnids. and he still wouldnt be fat. that means its super easy for him to gain more weight, which usually means its very hard to keep that weight at bay. the dude does not seem like the lazy type at all. shaq was lazy for kobe standards. but he wasnt lazy in comparison to other star players. It took Pau Gasol his entire career to finally get some definition in his arms. was he lazy? no. but was he working at it like some other people? probably not. but does he work harder than 95% of most ball players around the world at his height? YEP.

 

[rapbeats]

As I've said time and time again - his success is going to be nearly completely reliant on developing an outside shot, because his height/wingspan puts a cap on his ceiling.

whats wrong with his wing span? height isnt a thing to worry about once you hit 6'7. you can see well enough vs shorter guys guys your height and 7 footers. its not that big of a deal. now if you're 6'4. thats different.

but a 6'7 dude with the wingspan of a 7 foot dude and with zion hops and weight. can easily be a 7 foot dude defensively speaking and offensive speaking. UNLESS that guy doesnt play tall and is always bending his arms vs extending them to utilize his length.

 

[rapbeats]

Oh, no doubt, but Zion's going to learn very quickly that he won't be able to charge through the lane nor grab the second-chance rebounds that supplemented the majority of his scoring production in college. He's going to have to take more jumpers, and he's going to have to take more shots that he isn't typically used to taking, against greater pressure, and bigger and better defenders.

And he certainly doesn't strike me as someone who's just going to take the easy way out on offense (à la Julius Randle).

In a vacuum, it's definitely not out of the question. But it won't happen in junction with him averaging five assists - the circumstances set up for him to average that amount won't be there for him to average those points on that efficiency. He's not going to have the possessions for starters, and it'd take some all-time great performance from the Pelicans as a unit for him to have the luxury of averaging those type of numbers (or a # of the starters get injured).

And I don't know if the Pelicans will want to heap an unnecessary workload on him in his rookie season and risk injury.

It goes without saying that if he gets chances on the break, he'll eat, but his "mass and quickness' is only going to help him so much against NBA defenders in the post. Not saying you're guilty of this, but folks shouldn't make the mistake of thinking his grown man v. kids routine is going to be a reflection for what he'll do in the league, especially when most of the time, he saw little-to-no resistance in the post in college. If he had the appropriate height and wingspan, then it'd definitely mitigate the transition, but since he doesn't, it's going to take him a lot longer to work things out.

I can't really predict his numbers since it's going to be entirely reliant on his role and minutes (nor will his #s really reflect how well he's performing). But I'm definitely not expecting some other-worldly type shyt from him, certainly not early on anyway, especially given the Pels will have to work out how space the floor - it's not like he and Favors can operate in the same spaces with Lonzo and Ingram in the lineup.

he can live on the glass just like college. he just has to get even stronger and learn how to use his hips and his weight better. short fat strong barkely did this his entire career. lets not forget. so lets not say its impossible because we love to have everyone chucking 3's and jumpers. yes he needs that too. but he doesnt HAVE to have it.

 

[HTXBreh]

i dont like talking about work ethic when you're dealing with monsters sized dudes like him or shaq. reason being. normal people think all you have to do is.... to keep your weight down. that does not work for a dude who's walking weight if he was not a ball player would be in the 300's. think about that for a moment. his walking weight would be in the 3 hunnids. and he still wouldnt be fat. that means its super easy for him to gain more weight, which usually means its very hard to keep that weight at bay. the dude does not seem like the lazy type at all. shaq was lazy for kobe standards. but he wasnt lazy in comparison to other star players. It took Pau Gasol his entire career to finally get some definition in his arms. was he lazy? no. but was he working at it like some other people? probably not. but does he work harder than 95% of most ball players around the world at his height? YEP.

I've actually been 300lbs before my father is Nigerian I don't know his tribe,but to put it simply I gain muscle and weight extremely easy.Im 6'1 220 and 12%right now that came from research,regular exercise,and knowing the body feeling of full.Im also extremely hyper ,but the reason I bring up work ethic and motor because playing sports I saw Alot of guys who were even more genetically gifted than me not be able to make that mind muscle connection or do the research in nutrition to find out what the body needed to be at its peak.Hes going to have to do all that plus develop facets of his game to be a superstar .LeBron does all of these things from the nutrition the research and skill development.im also really impressed with the detailed conditioning he does for his lower back and core Zion blowing up like that knowing smer league was coming (a easy opportunity for him to be SC Top Ten a make a even bigger buzz)let's le know he don't get it.For s dude with the juice and hype to no get it yet as a #1pick is scary.

 

[#1 pick]

I see him playing a similar role at Duke on defense. Offensively, like @Gil Scott-Heroin, he will have to make some major adjustments. He wasn't as good in the post as Blake Griffin was as a prospect. It's going to be interesting. I do think his dribble drive is legit

 

[#1 pick]

he can live on the glass just like college. he just has to get even stronger and learn how to use his hips and his weight better. short fat strong barkely did this his entire career. lets not forget. so lets not say its impossible because we love to have everyone chucking 3's and jumpers. yes he needs that too. but he doesnt HAVE to have it.

I agree with this as well. Zion has abnormal bulk, body width and strength. He will always get boards because of it not to mention, he has good rebounding instincts