Wut da blood clot??: The Official Miami Heat 2015-16 Offseason Thread

Green Ranger

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Winderman: Percentages not all in Heat favor in free agency

The math during NBA free agency tends to be about the salary cap. What fits. What doesn't. It is finite math.

But the calculations regarding player movement is a more imprecise equation. Who stays and who goes often comes down to more than dollars. And playing the percentages at this time of year can be the ultimate gamble for NBA front offices.

The big picture, with upwards of 200 players becoming available at the stroke of midnight Friday, is too diverse to synthesize.

Playing the percentages for what might happen with the Heat's free agents is problematic enough.

Hassan Whiteside

The variables: Whiteside stands as the most in-demand Heat free agent, to a point that an argument could be made that the external passion could be fiercer than the Heat's willingness to offer a maximum four-year, $98 million package.

Hassan Whiteside discussed his impending free agency Sunday, four days before the start of the NBA's free-agency period.

The fact that the Heat played Whiteside off the bench over the second half of the regular season and are expected to continue to cast Dwyane Wade as a leading man opens the door for opposing teams to make the type of commitments that could ring hollow from the Heat.

Whiteside seemingly wants an unequivocal embrace. Will it be there from the Heat amid the perceived fascination with Kevin Durant?

Gary Payton was aloingside Hassan Whiteside at an NBA promotion event Sunday. He was asked to chime in on Whiteside's impending free agency.

Percentage he stays: 51 (not nearly the edge initially perceived).

Dwyane Wade

The variables: This should be a simple proposition: Wade wants to return and the Heat want him back. But it never has been that simple, be it the flirtation with his hometown Chicago Bulls in 2010 or last summer's number crunching that resulted in a one-year, $20 million compromise.

Could this be the time when the Heat come looking for a concession and Wade says enough is enough.

Percentage he stays: 90 (high, but not as high as might have been anticipated).

Luol Deng

The variables: How many times is Deng going to be willing to wait for that final career payoff?

As long as his former Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau looms in his new role with the Minnesota Timberwolves, and as long as the Heat make the Deng wait in line (behind Whiteside, Durant, Wade), there will be plenty of temptation to move on.

Percentage he stays: 30 (the math current doesn't appear to work unless Whiteside and Durant wind up elsewhere).

Joe Johnson

The variables: Yes, the talk upon his late-season signing was about something beyond the rest-of-season contract he signed, but that was when money was a backburner issue.

Basically, it appears as if it will come down to whether Johnson would be willing to accept the $2.9 million "room" exception later in the process. Even at 36, Johnson can get more elsewhere, can't he?

Percentage he stays: 30 (like Deng, this comes down to the math and the amount of concession willing to offer).

Tyler Johnson

The variables: The Heat have tendered a qualifying offer, making Johnson a restricted free agent, which means they can match any outside offer.

That should settle that, unless a suitor comes in with a back-loaded offer sheet, similar to what the Houston Rockets threw at the New York Knicks to land Jeremy Lin when Lin was a restricted free agent. Based on Johnson's history of shoulder issues, that appears unlikely.

Percentage he stays: 95 (and likely closer to 100, unless the NBA's spending insanity is even more insane than anticipated).

Udonis Haslem

The variables: This should be relatively simple: The Heat offer the veteran minimum after completing the rest of their signings and Haslem makes it a 14th consecutive season with the Heat.

But what if, after all those years of concessions, Haslem finds a team willing to go higher, perhaps with the $2.9 million "space" exception? Does being a lifer have its limits?

Percentage he stays: 80 (and this could get trickier than thought).

Gerald Green

The variables: Another case where the likely only offer would be the minimum. And even then, the Heat could pass because of some of the uneven moments this past season.

Green had been expecting to return to richer pastures. That could ultimately turn this into a waiting game.

Percentage he stays: 20 (only because he actually appeared to savor the experience).

Amar'e Stoudemire

The variables: This could have been Haslem-like, finding a veteran willing to ride out his career with the Heat. But then came the fall from starter to afterthought in the playoffs.

Percentage he stays: 15 (something says that Stoudemire's pride will take him elsewhere).

Dorell Wright

The variables: Wright basically was on a one-month tryout. It is doubtful the Heat saw enough to continue the reunion, possibly open to revisiting the option down the line.

Percentage he stays: 5 (only because there are no absolutes in free agency).
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Brief Keef

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SadimirPutin said:
dont see what the pitch to KD would be.....

To me you have to sell him other than Wade and Bosh....Bosh because of the health concerns and they still have to get Wade's new deal done

They got to get Whiteside deal done if at all

to me too many variables unknown for KD about what this team would look like
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he gave us a meeting you dont think he knows what the roster is like ? the pitch is the city/no income tax/max/great org/championships (he shuld know 1st hand cuz we 4-1'd this nikka)/we run now so it'll suit his play style/we're not a selfish team/we're in the east AND only man in your way lebron james

:ufdup: keep sleeping
 
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SadimirPutin

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Brief Keef said:
he gave us a meeting you dont think he knows what the roster is like ? the pitch is the city/no income tax/max/great org/championships (he shuld know 1st hand cuz we 4-1'd this nikka)/we run now so it'll suit his play style/we're not a selfish team/we're in the east AND only man in your way lebron james

:ufdup: keep sleeping
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yea okay...

that is not a compelling pitch outside of homerism....
 
iamduval

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On some real realistic shyt. I want to move dragic/mcroberts this summer, resign deng, wade, and iso then bring nick batum


That would b an A+ offseason

Richardson
Wade
Batum
Bosh
Whiteside

Tyler
Iso
Winslow
Deng
Haslem

Let a nikka dream :ohlawd:
 
Mantis Toboggan M.D.

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iamduval said:
On some real realistic shyt. I want to move dragic/mcroberts this summer, resign deng, wade, and iso then bring nick batum


That would b an A+ offseason

Richardson
Wade
Batum
Bosh
Whiteside

Tyler
Iso
Winslow
Deng
Haslem

Let a nikka dream :ohlawd:
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I've seen enough of Joe. A mediocre defender and isolation scorer who has become :flabbynsick:? Nah
 
iamduval

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Miami316 said:
I've seen enough of Joe. A mediocre defender and isolation scorer who has become :flabbynsick:? Nah
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Chalmers coming off an achilles? Green? Ain't too many 2s worth a damn willing to not only take less but come off the bench
 
Primetime21

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Lemongrass, cherries, alkaline water
Great article on the legend of Riley and the pursuit of Durant
I heard a great Pat Riley story once. During the summer of 2007, Kevin Garnett was living in Malibu, California, and agonizing about his unappealing future in Minnesota. His wife wanted to take a stroll along the water, so they borrowed a friend’s access code and snuck onto one of the more exclusive beaches. As they passed in front of one beachfront house, they heard an older man hollering loudly from his deck.

Kevin! Kevin!!!

Turned out, they had walked right by Pat Riley’s house. A gleeful Riley scurried down, welcomed his guests and immediately launched into a story, almost like a preacher welcoming his congregation with a colorful anecdote. Riley claimed that he had been standing on his deck and staring at the Pacific Ocean, watching blue waves crash against the white sand, wondering how to overhaul the suddenly struggling Miami Heat. He kept gazing into the water. And right at that moment, almost as if on cue, the Garnetts magically appeared on his beach.
Kevin Durant Could Be Pat Riley’s Final Conquest — The Ringer
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I seen some ungrateful heathens in here ready to pounce on Riley pending Hassan's decision. Smh yall dont even know how blessed we've been. Players come and go, you're lucky if your team gets an architect like this once in a lifetime
 
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