I just disagree with the premise that it is granular in this way. Largely voters who vote republicans are going to show up.There’s a section of rural white voters that were not consistent voters until Trump ran for president. These are the MAGA I’m referring too
Republicans outperform expectations in 2016 and 2022 because they showed up to vote for Trump
Democrats outperformed expectations in 2018, the special elections in Georgia in 2021 and 2022 because these maga voters didn’t show up because Trump wasn’t on the ballot
These voters are not going to show up to vote for desantis just because he’s republican. They only care about Trump and Desantis isn’t trump no matter how much he tries to be. No one is Trump
My personal position is that overall their enthusiasm is down because the air of invincibility they achieved under Trump has all but eroded away after the failed coup and subsequent indictments.
I’d also say with Abortion settled, conservatives just don’t have the same go to they did that appealed across the demographic.
So to me they’ll suffer this with him or someone else.
Trump was lightening in a bottle. Maga is just conservatives having fun with it. And I think some are just ready to go home after a bender.
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