And that’s what makes this situation so complicated.
Five people in the poll suggested seven-figure salaries for Toppin, but not all of them considered him a player of that caliber. Some participants were conflicted, acknowledging a reality of the business: You can pay your stars a million dollars a minute, but you can’t hand that much to your role players, especially with
far more restrictive luxury-tax policies on the way.
“I don’t think an extension makes sense there,” said the executive who advocated for the lowest average annual value in this poll: only $20 million over four years, a figure Toppin surely would not accept.
The divide comes down to roster construction. As long as Randle is around, Toppin won’t play over him, and Thibodeau, whose ethos is rim protection, does not feel comfortable playing the two offensive-minded power forwards together. Instead, the Knicks use a conventional center, either Mitchell Robinson or Isaiah Hartenstein for 48 minutes of most games, which leaves scraps for Toppin, even on the nights he’s running well.
According to league sources in contact with the Knicks front office leading up to this February’s trade deadline, New York held onto Toppin tightly when asked about his availability. This group, on the whole, believes in him. But can they justify a Clarke contract for someone who doesn’t receive Clarke minutes? And can they do it when Toppin’s wouldn’t be the only money they’d add to their books?
If they extend Quickley, that’s another significant contract. Eleven of the 15 people who were asked the same question about Quickley — what would be a fair extension for him? —
said salaries between $16 million and $20 million. Josh Hart is a likely free agent this summer, too, and will cost eight figures annually. What happens if the Knicks also add $13 million a year for Toppin, which could bring them near the salary cap in 2024-25? How does the organization go about snagging an extra wing or more 3-point shooting?
And thus, five participants in this poll toss out lowball offers — even if this exercise is not a real negotiation.
Three people polled for the story suggested $21 million over three years, figuring Toppin could opt for the security of a long-term deal, even if it’s below his market, similar to what Nassir Little did when he signed a discounted four-year, $28 million extension with the
Portland Trail Blazers last summer. But Little also was a lower draft pick than Toppin and has an injury history, which could have encouraged him to take a more conservative approach.
Even if the Knicks were to extend Toppin, it probably wouldn’t happen in early July. They have other objectives on the agenda. They want to find shooting. They have Quickley in the same contractual situation as Toppin. They are monitoring the market for a star — and it sure seems like big names could be on the move over the next month.
If a top-flight player becomes available, New York wants to pounce, and because of an obscure rule in the collective bargaining agreement, extending Toppin or Quickley would make either more difficult to trade before a new contract begins in 2024-25.
So the Knicks could wait.
New York has until the day before the season starts to extend Toppin, which gives the market time to create new contractual comparisons, beyond just a Clarke contract.
One person polled for the story said to keep an eye on what restricted free agent P.J. Washington gets this summer. Washington, like Toppin, is an energetic big man — though, like with Clarke, there is one significant difference between him and the Knicks forward: Washington has a defined role with his team and plays more. The Grizzlies and
Charlotte Hornets also use Clarke and Washington at center. The Knicks have proven they don’t feel comfortable doing the same with Toppin.
But no matter how New York handles his extension eligibility, the organization’s actions will show what it thinks.
If the Knicks pay him big money, they must have a plan to get him more minutes (though middling salaries, like the ones proposed in this story for Toppin, will become more valuable once the new CBA begins next month, as
The Athleticdetailed in the final section
of this story). If they never engage in extension negotiations at all, that’s a tell, too.
This summer, it’s all on the table for Toppin. He could re-up with the Knicks. He could fail to earn a new contract and enter restricted free agency a year from now. New York could include him in a trade for a big name. It could flip him for a player who may be just as good but could help more, if only because of his role. Maybe the Knicks identify a 3-point marksman who’s in the same clogged-up situation with his current team that Toppin is in with New York and they flip one for the other; a classic change-of-scenery swap.
Either way, the road the Knicks have been kicking this can down is coming to a dead end. They are past the point of merely thinking about how to handle Toppin’s fate. Soon, they will have to act on it.