Where US Black people date/smash each other (and not) by education and location (the DrBanneker data guide)

[Fillerguy]

Repped

 

[Blakbrew]

What is going on out in Massachusetts?

 

[Wiseborn]

This is wonderful.

Are you a Data scientist or is this just a hobby?

 

[Wiseborn]

What is going on out in Massachusetts?

It's Boston. Smart people get with smart people no matter the race.

 

[Macallik86]

Dope, inspiring idea. Definitely gonna try and put something together like this in the near future. Some quick notes from me:

1. One thing that really stuck out to me was for your #2, just to realize how fukked educated black women are . Some suspicions I have about the data are listed in my next point/sub-point, but for now, it looks like for every 100 women that go to college, there are roughly 72 black men. (Source) If 10% of black women marry outside of their race, that leaves 90 black women looking for black men. OTOH, of those 72 black men, 22% marry out of their race, which leaves 56 men for black women. That leaves 1.6 black college-educated women, for each 1 black college-educated man. No wonder I'm doing good out here
   1. Follow up point... you are presuming that people should be having kids therefore the Pew data is overstating, but there has been a general decline in birthrates historically, but clearly within the last few years ie a decline of 10% from 2015-2020 (Source). That is also w/o knowing whether the Pew Dating looks at birth rates or actual dating.
2. In general, I would be cautious extrapolating on dating/smashing patterns based on birth rates because 70% of African American children are born out of wedlock and the father's name is not mandatory. Also, less than half of millennials under 38 are married and I'd guess the # is even lower for Gen Z, so in both instances, you are using two unique subsets of the African-American population to extrapolate about the entire cohort and I think there's too much nuance there to be too confident.
3. My general takeaway of the data is that interracial dating is strongly correlated w/ the diversity of cities. Pew's data hints at this a little as well. I'm interested in seeing an additional layer added to see if it's possible to predict the likelihood of interracial dating given the % of African Americans in a community
4. Without digging into the data yet, one suggestion I would give for anyone looking to data black is to put yourself in scenarios with educated black women (church, mid-level grocers like Target, brunch, swanky rooftop lounges, any setting that would show up on Girlfriends/Insecure, etc because the ratio is heavilyin your favor.
   1. Also, in addition to living in the areas suggested in the original post, also seek out black-immigrant enclaves as many appear to have solid family structure, have reach that are expanding beyond the traditional hot zones, and make coin as well. I can't say that I've regularly interacted with African chicks straight from the motherland, but I have dated 1-2 that have been in the country a decade plus and it's not extremely different from African-American chicks outside of food and cultural nuances
5. Related/unrelated: I borrowed a book from the library last year that had general dating life insights based on data. Here are some random screenshots I took re: dating:
   1. Tall guys get all the love. Tall girls get none of it
      1. A six foot man earning $62K is as attractive as a 5'6 guy earning $237K
   2. People are 11.3% more likely to match w/ someone online if they share the same initials

 

[IsThatBrothaMouzone?]

Dope, inspiring idea. Definitely gonna try and put something together like this in the near future. Some quick notes from me:

1. One thing that really stuck out to me was for your #2, just to realize how fukked educated black women are . Some suspicions I have about the data are listed in my next point/sub-point, but for now, it looks like for every 100 women that go to college, there are roughly 72 black men. (Source) If 10% of black women marry outside of their race, that leaves 90 black women looking for black men. OTOH, of those 72 black men, 22% marry out of their race, which leaves 56 men for black women. That leaves 1.6 black college-educated women, for each 1 black college-educated man. No wonder I'm doing good out here
   1. Follow up point... you are presuming that people should be having kids therefore the Pew data is overstating, but there has been a general decline in birthrates historically, but clearly within the last few years ie a decline of 10% from 2015-2020 (Source). That is also w/o knowing whether the Pew Dating looks at birth rates or actual dating.
2. In general, I would be cautious extrapolating on dating/smashing patterns based on birth rates because 70% of African American children are born out of wedlock and the father's name is not mandatory. Also, less than half of millennials under 38 are married and I'd guess the # is even lower for Gen Z, so in both instances, you are using two unique subsets of the African-American population to extrapolate about the entire cohort and I think there's too much nuance there to be too confident.
3. My general takeaway of the data is that interracial dating is strongly correlated w/ the diversity of cities. Pew's data hints at this a little as well. I'm interested in seeing an additional layer added to see if it's possible to predict the likelihood of interracial dating given the % of African Americans in a community
4. Without digging into the data yet, one suggestion I would give for anyone looking to data black is to put yourself in scenarios with educated black women (church, mid-level grocers like Target, brunch, swanky rooftop lounges, any setting that would show up on Girlfriends/Insecure, etc because the ratio is heavilyin your favor.
   1. Also, in addition to living in the areas suggested in the original post, also seek out black-immigrant enclaves as many appear to have solid family structure, have reach that are expanding beyond the traditional hot zones, and make coin as well. I can't say that I've regularly interacted with African chicks straight from the motherland, but I have dated 1-2 that have been in the country a decade plus and it's not extremely different from African-American chicks outside of food and cultural nuances
5. Related/unrelated: I borrowed a book from the library last year that had general dating insights based on data. Here are some random screenshots I took:
   1. Tall guys get all the love. Tall girls get none of it
      1. A six foot man earning $62K is as attractive as a 5'6 guy earning $237K
   2. People are 11.3% more likely to match w/ someone online if they share the same initials

The height thing is wild.

I wonder how much the money decreases as a man approaches 6'0".

Like if 5'6" breh needs $237k to be even with 6'0" breh....how much does 5'7" or 5'9" breh need?

Flip side is...how does it work in the opposite direction? My guess is that 6'2" is probably better than 6'0" but a 6'6" or 6'7" breh might lose a few points.

All the Black women I know with college degrees are married. They may not get married at 23 like Hayley does, but by 30 (no later than 35-ish), they are married, usually to brehs. Sistas with less education definitely struggle more than equivalent white or Hispanic broads....but I'm not sure if those women WANT to get married as much unless they find a really solid breh. Being married just to be married DOES NOT seem like something Black women do....while white women often do that.

Numbers suggest that even if all brehs married Black, there's still a significant gap in college educated brehs vs brehettes.

A woman that used education to get ahead financially is not going to want to pair off with a man that doesn't see the value in a college degree. Impossible to raise kids when your basic values are completely different.

The real question is: why is there such a gap between men of all races and their female counterparts with regards to college? Nothing wrong with boys going into the trades but they're not doing that either.

 

[DrBanneker]

This is wonderful.

Are you a Data scientist or is this just a hobby?

I have a data analysis background, a lot of work in supply chain helped, though I am not formally trained as a data scientist. I think I know all the same tools though. This was just something I did out of interest.

 

[DrBanneker]

What is going on out in Massachusetts?

It's Boston. Smart people get with smart people no matter the race.

There are big regional differences too though. For example, Forsyth County, GA is less Black than Middlesex County, MA but at 85% for Black women. Same with Frederick County, MD. The far northeast swirl rates are more similar to the West Coast or Colorado type areas even given population percentages.

 

[Wiseborn]

There are big regional differences too though. For example, Forsyth County, GA is less Black than Middlesex County, MA but at 85% for Black women. Same with Frederick County, MD. The far northeast swirl rates are more similar to the West Coast or Colorado type areas even given population percentages.

Athough there are Black people from Boston almost everyone I know from there is a c00n.

That being said when Black people migrate they migrate intentionally. No Black woman not in the entertainment industry moves to LA without knowning that she's killing her dating chances unless she's exceptionally beautiful in a way that appeals to the open market. i.e a Super BBLéd ass appeals to Black Men not no so much to other races of Men.

Got to be the same thing if someone from Glenarden Maryland (in Prince George's County) decides to move to Cambridge MA she knows going in that she's messing up her chances to have a fully Black child.

 

[Wiseborn]

I have a data analysis background, a lot of work in supply chain helped, though I am not formally trained as a data scientist. I think I know all the same tools though. This was just something I did out of interest.

This is cool. But your job had nothing to do with say Food storage did it. They say that Kenya loses a lot of corn due to poor food storage facilities because small farms don't have access to refrigerated warehouses. And Nigeria just built a state of the art rice processing facility that will increase local rice production by 18%.

 

[DrBanneker]

One thing that really stuck out to me was for your #2, just to realize how fukked educated black women are . Some suspicions I have about the data are listed in my next point/sub-point, but for now, it looks like for every 100 women that go to college, there are roughly 72 black men. (Source) If 10% of black women marry outside of their race, that leaves 90 black women looking for black men. OTOH, of those 72 black men, 22% marry out of their race, which leaves 56 men for black women. That leaves 1.6 black college-educated women, for each 1 black college-educated man. No wonder I'm doing good out here

The real question is: why is there such a gap between men of all races and their female counterparts with regards to college? Nothing wrong with boys going into the trades but they're not doing that either.

The numbers are directionally accurate, but it is actually kind of hard to tell for young people since the numbers fluctuate so much but that isn't the best table. That table shows the percentage of people by race that have an associate's degree higher broken out by sex so isn't exactly the number that is comparable.

A good table is here and is the percentage of persons 25-29 that have a certain level of education. What is odd is how the numbers fluctuate so much. So I averaged the percentage of Black men and women and it was 22% of Black men and 26% of Black women 25-29 with bachelor's or higher before COVID.
Data from this link show the ratio of Black women to men in the 25-29 age category is 1.08:1 so it was about 78 men to 100 women with bachelor's or higher.

After COVID though, Black men's college degree gaining crashed and for 2021 19.7% of Black men and 32.1% of Black women have degrees in that age group which would take current data down to 57 to 100 but this is probably skewed by a lot of young dudes that missed out on college bc of COVID.

The thing is White and Hispanic women aren't clean sailing either since there are only about 82 White men per 100 White women in that age group with a Bachelor's or higher. Hispanic men are right with Black men in 2021 at 19.6% of 25-29 yo with Hispanic women at 27.1% so 72 per 100 but there are more Hispanic men than women in that age group so it helps some (though that may be due to immigrants being male usually).

So all women of all races are going to be looking for the same smaller group of men. Also given the fact Asian women and Latina women choose on White guys hard I think educated White women may be getting that 1990s Black woman feeling in the next decade.

 

[DrBanneker]

Athough there are Black people from Boston almost everyone I know from there is a c00n.

That being said when Black people migrate they migrate intentionally. No Black woman not in the entertainment industry moves to LA without knowning that she's killing her dating chances unless she's exceptionally beautiful in a way that appeals to the open market. i.e a Super BBLéd ass appeals to Black Men not no so much to other races of Men.

Got to be the same thing if someone from Glenarden Maryland (in Prince George's County) decides to move to Cambridge MA she knows going in that she's messing up her chances to have a fully Black child.

This is a good point. One other point I could make, and I have some data but haven't put it together, that many of the areas with the highest IR rates for Black people are also areas where there is a net out-migration of Black population overall. So often people who don't like the setup leave (usually for the South) and it selects out those who are left.

 

[DrBanneker]

Follow up point... you are presuming that people should be having kids therefore the Pew data is overstating, but there has been a general decline in birthrates historically, but clearly within the last few years ie a decline of 10% from 2015-2020 (Source). That is also w/o knowing whether the Pew Dating looks at birth rates or actual dating.

Good point and there is no data on fertility rates for Black married couples vs. IR married couples to my knowledge. The Pew data didn't use birth info, it used the Census American Community Survey which is an annual sample of 1% of the US population. They tailor it to be relatively unbiased overall but I have always suspected that unbiased for the bulk US population does not mean unbiased for the Black population. The areas with fewer Blacks are oversampled relative to our distribution I think but I admit I have no proof.

In general, I would be cautious extrapolating on dating/smashing patterns based on birth rates because 70% of African American children are born out of wedlock and the father's name is not mandatory. Also, less than half of millennials under 38 are married and I'd guess the # is even lower for Gen Z, so in both instances, you are using two unique subsets of the African-American population to extrapolate about the entire cohort and I think there's too much nuance there to be too confident.

True, but the CDC birth data rates of out of wedlock births for Blacks and Whites aren't far from the bulk numbers and only about 20% of births I think had no father info so most of it is there. I can go back and check though. There are holes in the data though I agree but there isn't much perfect out there unless you did direct interviews of folks.

1. here to be too confident.
2. My general takeaway of the data is that interracial dating is strongly correlated w/ the diversity of cities. Pew's data hints at this a little as well. I'm interested in seeing an additional layer added to see if it's possible to predict the likelihood of interracial dating given the % of African Americans in a community

We agree here. Black population levels are a strong indicator though as I not in an above post comparing MA, MD, and GA there is a regional tilt so low Black population counties in the South and mid-Atlantic still don't have IR rates comparable to Cali, Colorado, or Massachusetts.

Also, in addition to living in the areas suggested in the original post, also seek out black-immigrant enclaves as many appear to have solid family structure, have reach that are expanding beyond the traditional hot zones, and make coin as well. I can't say that I've regularly interacted with African chicks straight from the motherland, but I have dated 1-2 that have been in the country a decade plus and it's not extremely different from African-American chicks outside of food and cultural nuances

I agree here and actually have that data. High Black immigrant areas have very high birth-in-wedlock rates--usually higher than even the local White population. I can put that data out there. Crazy enough, some of the highest counties for non-immigrant Black births in wedlock are areas with a large military presence.

All the Black women I know with college degrees are married. They may not get married at 23 like Hayley does, but by 30 (no later than 35-ish), they are married, usually to brehs. Sistas with less education definitely struggle more than equivalent white or Hispanic broads....but I'm not sure if those women WANT to get married as much unless they find a really solid breh. Being married just to be married DOES NOT seem like something Black women do....while white women often do that.

Also, people may not believe me, but if both the Black mother and father have a bachelor degree or higher, the kid has an 80% chance of being born to married parents. But the educated, married Black woman has LOW fertility compared to lesser educated married Black women or lesser educated unmarried Black women so the overall rate for Black people goes the other direction.

 

[DrBanneker]

Also, in addition to living in the areas suggested in the original post, also seek out black-immigrant enclaves as many appear to have solid family structure, have reach that are expanding beyond the traditional hot zones, and make coin as well. I can't say that I've regularly interacted with African chicks straight from the motherland, but I have dated 1-2 that have been in the country a decade plus and it's not extremely different from African-American chicks outside of food and cultural nuances

Here is some quick info. First chart is for all Black women, percent of kids married to Black women who indicate a Black spouse on birth cert. The bolded counties have high Black immigrant populations.

County​	% born to married Black mother with Black Spouse out of all both Black parent births​
Honolulu County, HI​	90%​
Stearns County, MN​	88%​
Forsyth County, GA​	84%​
Boone County, KY​	82%​
Androscoggin County, ME ​	82%​
Jefferson County, NY​	82%​
Washington County, OR​	82%​
El Paso County, TX​	81%​
Thurston County, WA​	81%​
Chittenden County, VT​	80%​
Loudoun County, VA​	80%​
Kent County, DE​	79%​

Here is the same chart for Black women that indicate non-immigrant status but the sample size is smaller so there are probably a bunch of gaps since most people don't fill out all that data on the birth certificate

County​	% born to married (non-immigrant) Black mother with Black Spouse out of all both Black parent births​
Honolulu County, HI​	88.89%​
Jefferson County, NY​	80.00%​
Forsyth County, GA​	79.03%​
Thurston County, WA​	77.33%​
El Paso County, TX​	77.08%​
Johnson County, TX​	76.79%​
Kent County, DE​	69.66%​
Loudoun County, VA​	68.70%​
Benton County, AR​	67.57%​
Williamson County, TN​	67.50%​
Fairfield County, OH​	66.67%​

 

[broller]

Colorado is about to see an influx of TLR posters

Deion finna use this data for recruiting purposes

Colorado: PAWGers paradise