FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | QBASE 2016
Projecting college quarterbacks to the NFL is inexact enough without adding the complication of a collegiate schedule built around FCS schools. Here, we are presenting our projection for Wentz that makes the most generous assumptions we think make sense for the quality of opposing defenses and the quality of his teammates. The projection essentially calls Wentz's overall situation at North Dakota State -- which includes some good surrounding talent that helped win the school a fifth consecutive FCS title -- relatively, but not extremely, favorable for posting good stats. (In building the new model, other FCS quarterbacks in our database are treated similarly.)
Here are Wentz and the quarterbacks since 1996 who have both similar QBASE projections and similar opponent adjustments in the model. The projection sees Wentz as similar to some major-conference quarterbacks, such as
Drew Stanton and
Akili Smith, who faced relatively weak competition.
QBASE for Prospects with Wentz-like Profiles
Player Projected DYAR
Jimmy Garoppolo 560
Drew Stanton 414
Blake Bortles 373
Akili Smith 325
Carson Wentz 274
Joe Flacco 256
Andy Dalton 132
Paxton Lynch 106
Colin Kaepernick 58
Josh Freeman -17
The hope here is obviously that Wentz will resemble
Joe Flacco, a small-school quarterback whom QBASE would have underrated. But while we should be extra cautious with the projections for players from unique situations such as Wentz and Flacco, QBASE is not generally biased against small-school quarterbacks. In addition to
Jimmy Garoppolo, it also gives considerably higher rankings to quarterbacks such as
Ben Roethlisberger (1,227 DYAR) and
Chad Pennington (1,113 DYAR), even though they have even larger corrections for playing weak mid-major schedules.
Our estimates for Wentz's chances of being a bust, 62 percent, are certainly higher than one would hope to see in a No. 2 pick. His statistical profile (62.5 percent completion rate as a senior with 7.9 yards per attempt, 17 touchdowns, five interceptions) fits with other highly drafted quarterbacks who struggled in the NFL. But we want to be even more cautious than usual with our estimates since Wentz comes from a situation that's hard to put into the proper context. Our model has its misses -- and Flacco, who played in a similar situation at the University of Delaware, is one of the biggest.
Nevertheless, while Flacco is the hope if the Browns draft Wentz, he is also the exception to a broader rule. Successful NFL quarterbacks usually show in college not only throws that leap off the film, but also clear and consistent evidence of efficiency, whether they have played at Miami of Ohio or Miami of Florida. Wentz's projection reflects the kind of thin statistical resume that has often predicted first-round busts in the past.