Mondays in the Humidor with the Big Cigar - 11/30/15
By: Jesus Shuttlesworth
In this edition of Mondays in the Humidor, the Big Cigar has some good news and bad news for everyone depending on who’s coach/ox is being gored. We’ll reset the landscape of Texas football and tell you what is going on behind the scenes as different factions provide their input to the athletic director as to what is best for Texas football. We will also tell you what it all means in the short run and long run depending on a variety of moving parts. It’s a bit like the tax code, it’s got something in to piss off everyone. Finally, the Cigar will chime in on how he thinks things will play out as well as some input from people close to the football team. In other words, we’re pretty much leaking like a sieve but never to the detriment of a program which could use all of the help that it can get. Now that the damage is done, we’ll shed light on what can and will happen inside the Humidor.
Jesus Shuttlesworth: Let’s start things out by getting down to brass tacks. There have been reports that Strong will be fired after Baylor, and there are reports by yours truly that Strong will leave if he decides to take a gig somewhere else. There’s obviously concentric circles in play here based on game results, but if you could reset what’s going to happen after Baylor, I think everyone will be appreciative.
Big Cigar: The easiest way to do this is to give you the mindset of the AD and then work your way out to the donors. I’ve contended all along that Mike Perrin was going to be the long term solution at AD because he’s commands the respect of all of his stakeholders professionally and as a football mind. Like I’ve said, Mike won’t cow-tow to anyone regardless of wealth or influence. He’ll always do what’s best for the University.
Jesus Shuttlesworth: So he’s not going to be pushed around by a guy that writes giant 7-figure checks?
Big Cigar: He’ll never be pushed around, but he’s also a shrewd business man and he’ll weigh the amount of that check and reconcile that with what the President thinks should happen. I guess what I’m saying is that he gets the dollars and cents of the business but he’s not going to cave on any old power play. In his mind, if that gets him fired so be it, because he really doesn’t need this job. Now if the power play makes sense, he’s not going to stubbornly stiff arm the overture. Let’s just say he’s deliberate on both sides of the equation which is what is needed at this point I would think.
Jesus Shuttlesworth: How would you characterize Fenves’ motivations at this point?
Big Cigar: He’s giving Perrin his full backing with the proviso that the football team needs to win and that his philanthropic-based fundraising initiative can be kick-started sooner rather than later. He knows that the football team is the front-porch of the University and he embraces that fact unlike many academics. In other words these two are in virtual lock-step with respect to how the football program needs to perform. They know where they want to be one year, five years, and ten years down the road. And they’ve made decisions to that end.
Jesus Shuttlesworth: Well, with the news coming out that Strong was going to be fired after Baylor and then our site’s counter piece that this was definitely not the case, please give us the reset that we’ve been waiting for.
Big Cigar: I’d start by saying factions of donors in both Houston and Dallas among others have vehemently voice their disapproval of how things have been handled by this staff the last two seasons. Perrin received point-by-point rationales that things weren’t going well and to his credit he gave them their due diligence. At the end of the day, Perrin decided that the way to go was give Charlie at least one more season and recruiting class to right the ship. I wouldn’t say that pleased these factions who had pledged the money to buy-out Strong, but they were satisfied given the short term stipulations required of coach Strong in 2016. My biggest fear was moving the goal post to put us in a veritable purgatory if Strong was mediocre after hiring a new OC, but I’m mildly pleased with what was proposed.
Jesus Shuttlesworth: So what was proposed?
Big Cigar: The plan is to bring in the new coordinator, a witch of an offensive line coach and then go from there. Also, despite what’s been reported elsewhere, they’re hell bent on bringing in a JUCO quarterback. I mean ****, why would they throw an ass load of money at an innovative OC and not add another body to compete at said OC’s most important position. Parcells said it best, if you’re going to let me cook you’d better let me shop for the groceries. And that’s happening because Texas, the potential new OC, and all parties involved like TVCC's Jerod Evans. It wouldn’t surprise me based on what I know if Evans already had an offer but they want to keep things quiet after what happened with the Gentry and Murray interplay last season. They’re still pissed and somewhat betrayed by that. They thought they could trust the media and now they know they can’t. As for Shane Buechele, they still think he can come in and compete if they land their guy at OC. And they don’t think Jerrod Heard is a lost cause either. They have lots of options and the OC on the horizon is a perfect fit to make this all work.
Jesus Shuttlesworth: Speaking of the OC on the horizon, errr, Cumbie, what are your thoughts on the leak of his name today by some outlets?
Big Cigar: For that outlet, it’s part and parcel to what happened with the Murray deal. They just can’t leave well enough alone. Leaking Cumbie’s name and how he’s UT’s No. 1 target did not do Texas or Cumbie any favors. TCU is done until the bowl game, which gives Patterson tons of time to pitch and pressure Cumbie into staying now that it looks like Meachem could be moving on to North Texas. At the very least, Texas lost a ton of leverage in its effort to save a coach that has to have an innovative OC with Cumbie’s recruiting chops.
Jesus Shuttlesworth: Great stuff. Let’s switch gears to what the expectations are going into 2016 and where the brass is coming from by making the decision to stay with Strong.
Big Cigar: I talked about the donor factions who wanted Strong out and pledged funds to that end. They’ll be watching 2016 very intently, hell they’ll be watching the Baylor game very intently, with hopes that Strong chooses to hang things up on his own. The pressure will always be there on Strong by these groups up until he starts winning. It’s simply the reality of the situation and they have enough money and influence to get a seat at the table with Perrin and Fenves especially if performance on the field, fundraising, and ticket sales falter. And I’d be lying if I said they don’t have Perrin’s ear on the situation. There is also a faction of donors who have come to Strong’s defense and basically guaranteed he has one more year to fix things. This group has money too, and they’ve allowed Perrin to take a more measured approach with Charlie. If there are any cracks in recruiting, fundraising, or performance in 2016, this group can be had or they’re willing to make change. Knowing all of that, your readers’ takeaway should be that Tom Herman’s contract extension with UH is a good thing as it applies to the good guys. My “guess” is he has insight on the situation.
Jesus Shuttlesworth: So what’s acceptable and what’s not in 2016 for coach Strong for our readers who think Strong has carte blanch in 2016?
Big Cigar: I think he has to get 8-9 wins to keep his job after next season based on what I’ve heard from people who matter. Anything less means perilous waters for Strong and the staff. I’d also say that if we can land Cumbie, a war daddy OL Coach, and the juco QB that we can really make some hay next season. If not, that’s all on Strong and the PR of firing simply doesn’t matter at this point. Perrin is building a story to tell and he has the coach everyone wants anyway on the hook should Charlie falter. That’s my read on things.
Jesus Shuttlesworth: What’s the worst case scenario in your mind?
Big Cigar: Well, if things get queered with Cumbie and Traylor is promoted to coordinator, I think that really hurts Charlie from a perception standpoint even though Traylor is the real deal. I can tell you that recruits are jazzed by the possibility of Cumbie coming in to fix things so that’s the silver lining. I just hope things didn’t get screwed up by the premature report. We also have to be competitive with Baylor. Lose 70 to 10 and there could be a groundswell that really changes everyone’s calculus. Right now though, bet on Cumbie, a new OL coach, and an improved recruiting class giving Charlie no excuses in 2016. I think that’s precisely what Perrin is gunning for. It puts him in a no lose situation all things equal. He’s playing chess here.
Jesus Shuttlesworth: Thanks.
Big Cigar: You bet.