WaPo Columnist Jamal Khashoggi killed by Saudis in Turkey; Senators Mull Magnitsky Sanctions

prophecypro

prophecypro

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ZoeGod said:
Yeah they are. The murder of Khashoggi is going to be another crack on MBS armor. MBS is going to bring down the House of Saud with him. Here’s why. MBS rise to power has ticked off many members of the royal family. Him being the crown prince over his more qualified cousin Bin Nayaf was the first in Saudi history. Remember there is still tribal tensions within the royal family.

The second crack in his armor was the quagmire in Yemen. Yeah the Saudis had to do something to fight the Houthis however MBS thought that the war would last a couple of months. Three years later with 1000 dead Saudi soldiers later theHouthis still control Sana’a. The war has becomes a quagmire simply put the war has moved to the hellish mountainous North Yemen where the Houthis guerilla war tactics has been hampering the war effort. The Saudis are pouring a lot of money in the war. They are paying the salaries of pro Hadi forces,the salaries of pro Hadi government workers. Also they are paying a lot of money of Yemenis fighters to man their borders since they are suffering heavy casualties from Houthi ambushes and raids at the border. So they are burning their cash reserves for that war and even if they somehow win they would have to rebuild of Yemen which will be in the trillions. MBS has made the war his baby but the Yemen ulcer is going to be a long term disaster for Saudi Arabia like Afghanistan was for the Soviet Union.


The third crack was the whole Qatar snafu. All it’s has weakened the GCC in a time where they want to confront Iran. All the blockade of Qatar has done is pushed Qatar closer to Turkey and Iranwhich is a strategic disaster of this continues. MBS Qatar blockade hasn’t worked and has made other neutral GCC nations(Oman,Kuwait,Jordan) beleery of Saudi leadership.


The next crack was the whole Ritz Carlton fiasco which had Saudi princes and Saudi elites arrested on charges of corruption. From reports MBS basically told them to give up a total of 100 billiondollars and then they would be let go. Some resisted but all of them gave up the goods. Many said this was done by MBS as a money grabbing scheme to fill the Saudi govt coffers as they are burning cash in Yemen, defense spending etc.However this move has created more resentment towards MBS which will haunt him in the long run when things start unravel under his rule. Alsosince then capital has been fleeing wealthy Saudis are putting their money outside their country out of fear the government is observing their financial records and transaction. They fear another RitzCarlton extortion down the line.

The other crack was the Hariri house arrest which blown up on MBS face which was a blatant attempt to influence Lebanese politics. What happened later was pro Hezbollah parties control the parliament and government.


And now this murder is another major crack. Khashoggi was well connected in Saudi high society. His murder will create much more resentment with the elites who are plotting to strike when MBS is at his weakest. It’s also to note MBS has arrested plenty pro governmentextremes Wahhabi clerics. When these guys are in jail who you think are rubbing shoulders with? ISIS and Al Qaeda prisoners. Which will bedisastrous since these clerics hold plenty of influence in the outside.

The reason why no one has made a move on MBS is because he has support in two important tiers of Saudi society. The military because he pays their salary. And the Saudi youth who love him because of his promises of modernization and liberalization. And Saudi Arabia has a large youth bulge. So he has support of the people and the military. Hence why he is such in a rush to have economic reform in the country to keep the gravy rolling. However all his actions his undermining his plans.

As I mentioned before capital flight from Saudi elites is hurting the economy. Since Ritz Carlton 800,000 foreign laborers has left the country. Foreign direct investment has plummeted from 7.5 billion to 1.4 billion since 2016. When there is collapsing foreign and domestic direct investment it’s not good for the long term plans for MBS 2030. And this murder will further lead to foreign and domestic money leave Saudi Arabia. Plus MBS wants to implement austerity but wants to increase defense spending to confront Iran and continue the money pit that is Yemen.

What is likely to happen is MBS won’t live up to his promises. The Saudi military and people turn against him which could get very ugly. The sign you will know shyt is about to hit the fan is when Saudi Arabia is near bankruptcy and there is mass prison breakouts of ISIS/Al Qaeda elements with the jailed Wahhabi clerics. Shiites rise up in rebellion in the Eastern province and the province at the Yemen border. The next Mideast disaster will be a collapsed Saudi society. It will worse than Syria/Libya/Yemen combined. The 2020s will be an interesting decade.
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As a former expat who still goes there on business this is pretty much on point

Im honestly surprised this thing with the journalist was done by him if true. He was too focused on the voice of one dissedent to not see how it would fukk up his bag if true. And yes the crackdown on corruption seemed nice but what did he think was gonna happen money wise?

Honestly if Saudi collapsed, as much as people want it to happen it would be disaster not only for that region but the world. Can you imagine if so many Isis/Al Qaeda people break out and are funded by the few in power still there? And its still where Makkah and Medina are so can its not like the west would get full support in a war.
 
ZoeGod

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Strategicbreh said:
If he destabilizes Saudi arabia., Iran will move on eastern Shia province and Bahrain, and Turkey might seize Mecca again. Turkey has a naval Base a few miles away in Sudan, and a base in Qatar. Turkey and Iran will pick Saudi bones clean.

I don't see how the US can get involved without serious blowback.
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I read somewhere that Algeria,Egypt and Pakistan have some secret agreement that if the Saudi state is near collapse that they would send troops to help prop up the regime in the event of mass insurrection. And secure Mecca and Medina. Now that is all well and good if you got the money to pay these foreign mercenaries. But in this scenario I presented it it will be the people and the royal family vs Bin Salman. And knowing his character he ain’t going out easily.
 
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ZoeGod said:
I read somewhere that Algeria,Egypt and Pakistan have some secret agreement that if the Saudi state is near collapse that they would send troops to help prop up the regime in the event of mass insurrection. And secure Mecca and Medina. Now that is all well and good if you got the money to pay these foreign mercenaries. But in this scenario I presented it it will be the people and the royal family vs Bin Salman. And knowing his character he ain’t going out easily.
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He's already sleeping on a boat, he's a coward. He'll run once he realizes the military won't take his orders. He's a delusional coddled prince he doesn't have the stomach for an ugly war.
 
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prophecypro said:
As a former expat who still goes there on business this is pretty much on point

Im honestly surprised this thing with the journalist was done by him if true. He was too focused on the voice of one dissedent to not see how it would fukk up his bag if true. And yes the crackdown on corruption seemed nice but what did he think was gonna happen money wise?

Honestly if Saudi collapsed, as much as people want it to happen it would be disaster not only for that region but the world. Can you imagine if so many Isis/Al Qaeda people break out and are funded by the few in power still there? And its still where Makkah and Medina are so can its not like the west would get full support in a war.
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this is so important. can you imagine if a non-Muslim power had troops in combat in Saudi? Even having military bases with Saudi government consent was an egregious insult to bin Laden and his ilk. If there was a live war with U.S. troops anywhere near the holy cities it would be an unprecedented disaster.
 
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