The new oil war: Opec moves against the US
Saudi Arabia and Russia’s agreement to cut oil production in defiance of Washington may upend the global energy order
www.ft.com
The new oil war: Opec moves against the US
Saudi Arabia and Russia’s agreement to cut oil production in defiance of Washington may upend the global energy order
Half a century ago, the Yom Kippur war between Israel and Arab states put a new cartel of oil producers at the centre of global politics. The Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, halted oil supplies to the western countries that had supported Israel. It was the first global oil shock.
On Wednesday, the Jewish holy day of Yom Kippur, Saudi Arabia and its oil allies — which now include Russia in the Opec+ group — moved to upend the world’s energy order again.
Their decision to slash 2mn barrels a day from production targets, or 2 per cent of global supply, might sound modest. But doing so while Brent crude was trading at a lofty $90 a barrel — almost twice its long-term historical price — is a threat to a global economy stalked by inflation and mounting consumer anxiety about energy prices and shortages. And it marks a new and perhaps dangerous breach between producer and consumer countries, especially between the US and Saudi Arabia.
The timing of the cuts for the US was especially telling, coming just two and a half months after President Joe Biden had exchanged fist bumps with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Jeddah, and five weeks before November’s midterm elections. Days earlier, envoys from the White House had travelled to Saudi Arabia to implore the kingdom not to cut.
Instead, Prince Mohammed’s half brother, energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman sealed the deal to slash supply at the Opec headquarters on Vienna’s Helferstorferstraße. Alongside him was Vladimir Putin’s deputy prime minister Alexander Novak, only days after he was slapped with sanctions by the US.
Roger Diwan, a veteran Opec watcher at S&P Global Commodity Insight, said in a note the cuts marked a “weaponisation of oil” and suggested the timing and location of the meeting were a deliberate signal from the cartel.
“The presence of the Russian deputy prime minister under US sanctions, to discuss tightening of oil supply heading into a winter in which Russia has already weaponised its gas exports to Europe sends a clear message,” Diwan said. “Saudi Arabia’s adversarial path will skew price risk even higher for oil.”
For Saudi Arabia, which has long depended on the US for military support as part of an energy-for-security alliance that has endured through two wars in the Gulf and the 9/11 attacks, it underscores a new confidence that it can break free of American pressure and act in its own commercial and diplomatic interests.
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