Trump IMPEACHED by the US House; US Senate Trial Allows No New Witnesses & Acquits Trump

[Dusty Bake Activate]

More reality...excuse me, concern trolling.

New poll further casts doubt on impeachment effort

Some Democrats fear their Trump impeachment will be as politically costly as Republicans' of Clinton. They are right to worry, because early polling does not look promising. If Democrats' high-risk strategy backfires, instead of weakening and removing Trump, they could catapult him back into the White House stronger than ever.

Democrats publicly insisted that their impeachment inquiry of President Trump will not sidetrack other House business. They want to accentuate they are not putting their left's pleasure (impeachment) before the people's business (legislating). They are artfully hedging their bets: Should the inquiry not gain public support, forcing them to pull the plug - or should it go forward and assuredly fail in the Senate - they want substantive accomplishments to offset symbolic failure.

A recent poll shows why they are right to be so concerned. A Hill-Harris poll released on Oct. 2 showed Trump with this year's highest job approval rating (49 percent) and lowest disapproval rating (51 percent). More significantly the poll notes, "The nationwide survey was conducted on Sept. 28 and 29, less than a week after House Democrats launched a formal impeachment inquiry."

That Trump would be at his approval high and disapproval low, essentially a year ahead of reelection, is bad enough; that it would come amidst the most serious action that can be taken against a president should be especially troubling to Democrats.

If impeachment promised great success, it needs to show an immediate impact, peeling nonpartisans and independents away from him - and potentially even part of his base. This poll does not show that. While 49 percent job approval obviously is less than a majority, it is materially higher than the 46 percent of the popular vote that won him the White House in 2016. That means: Trump is increasing his base.

Looking into the poll's figures reveals an even more disturbing note for Democrats. The poll showed Trump's strong approval at 26 percent and his strong disapproval at 36 percent. On the surface, Democrats could seemingly take heart from that 10 percentage point deficit. However, consider: To reach his 49/51 percent overall job approval level, that means he went 23/15 percent among the non-strongly motivated.

These should be the people most likely to be influenced by impeachment questions. That they seemingly are not thus far, when the impeachment charges are at their most headline-grabbing, should be a red flag for Democrats: The drawn-out procedure of formal impeachment is likely to erode public feeling even more.

As Democrats well remember, that happened with Clinton's impeachment two decades ago. After surviving the charges' initial shock, which had called his presidency's survival into question, Clinton recovered throughout the extended process. When the case finally reached the Senate, Democrats felt comfortable acquitting Clinton.

Further factors should also be dampening Trump's current ratings. The economy's noticeable slowing and the trade war's attrition certainly are not helping him. Further, having been in office for three years, there should be some public fatigue.

On the other side, Democrats should be at their height. They benefit from having the "shiny new objects" - a plethora of new candidates covering a wide spectrum of positions. Comparatively unknown, they are able to promise with impunity without having to deliver in reality.

Considering these factors, Trump's 49/51 percent is dauntingly strong to Democrats. His approval rating rests on the job he has actually done for three years, and for which he is seeking re-election. This is therefore a strong proxy for how these people approving his performance would vote.

On the negative side, the actual Democrat nominee will likely cut into the 51 percent disapproval - i.e., Trump likely will look better in comparison, at least to some of those now disapproving his performance. Democrats' nominee will have to endure a year of intensifying scrutiny and attacks thus far largely avoided. Today's "shiny new objects" will no longer be new and tarnish will start to appear.

Also, 49 percent is a pretty strong position historically. Over the last century, third parties have averaged 4.5 percent of the popular vote. That means, on average, the two major parties are fighting over about 95 percent of the popular vote. Forty-nine percent is a sizable majority in such circumstances.

Further, Trump's 2016 vote efficiency was extraordinary. Winning just 46 percent of the popular vote and 2 percent less than Clinton, he won 30 states. He turned his sizable popular vote deficit into 304 electoral votes. Should Trump win an additional three percent of the 2020 vote, and disperse it over his 2016 electoral map, he would prove virtually unbeatable.

If Trump is already relatively strong, likely to get stronger, and his Democrat opponents weaker, that is already bad news for Democrats. If this is where things stand before impeachment really has begun - and impeachment could further accelerate these unfavorably divergent trends for Democrats - their news goes from bad to a whole lot worse.

 

[acri1]

We live in the internet age and sensory overload is a real thing breh. There's never been a time like this. Trumps corruption has been rampant and well documented to a point that people are numb. Its not sticking yet because people will need this shyt spelled out for them word for word. Since Trump has allied himself solely with thieves, they will turn on him to save their own necks once the pressure increases. This has all been a matter of time because they are all sloppy as shyt.

We've been following this in real time so it feels like a lifetime of watching 45 slide on everything but he's always just been delaying the inevitable. I highly doubt he's removed but he's incapable of playing defense gracefully. He's only going to make things worse for himself the longer these investigations go on

To be honest I don't think anybody here expects Trump to mount some kind of competent defense.

But does he really have to? Forty percent of voters are going to support him even if Dems make the best impeachment case in legal history. His defense could be "FAKE NEWS!" and it'd more than suffice for them.

 

[Worthless Loser]

In the Senate, Ben Sasse and Susan Collins have made their usual equivocal noises—but not surprisingly, its Mitt Romney, longtime Trump antagonist and sometime suck-up, who’s become the standard-bearer, leading to questions as to what his game is. According to sources, donors have in recent days called the Utah senator and encouraged him to run against Trump in the primary. “There is a half-billion dollars on the sidelines from guys who are fed up with Trump,” a GOP donor told me. Their hopes were raised when Romney attacked Trump on Friday,

According to people close to Romney, he’s firmly decided against primarying Trump, an enterprise he believes to be a sure loser given Trump’s enduring GOP support. Romney has also told people that, as an unsuccessful two-time presidential candidate, he’s the wrong person to take on Trump. Instead, a Romney adviser told me, Romney believes he has more potential power as a senator who will decide Trump’s fate in an impeachment trial. “He could have tremendous influence in the impeachment process as the lone voice of conscience in the Republican caucus,” the adviser said. In recent days, Romney has been reaching out privately to key players in the Republican resistance, according to a person briefed on the conversations. “Romney is the one guy who could bring along Susan Collins, Cory Gardner, Ben Sasse. Romney is the pressure point in the impeachment process. That’s why the things he’s saying are freaking Republicans out.” (Romney, through a spokesperson, declined to comment.)

GOP elected officials and donors are privately war-gaming what an endgame for Trump would look like. “It’s clear the House is going to impeach,” the prominent Republican told me. Making matters worse for Trump, a policy wedge has opened up between Trump and the Republican Senate at a moment when he needs its support most. Trump’s surprise decision to pull back American troops in Syria and allow Turkey to take on our Kurdish allies has enraged Trump’s closest GOP allies, including Lindsey Graham. “The Syria decision is a much bigger deal,” another former West Wing official said. “No one on the inside can hold Trump accountable. The Senate Republicans are the only check on power right now.”

Mitt Won’t Primary Trump—But He’s Trying to Bring Him Down

Romney is pretty much untouchable and was the party's leader just 7 years ago so it would be interesting to see if he still has some kind of influence. A Senate Trial could rip the GOP in half.

 

[Smoking With Cigarettes]

To be honest I don't think anybody here expects Trump to mount some kind of competent defense.

But does he really have to? Forty percent of voters are going to support him even if Dems make the best impeachment case in legal history. His defense could be "FAKE NEWS!" and it'd more than suffice for them.

The key to defeating Trump are the voters who have rarely, if ever, been involved in the political process. Those people don't get polled and don't give a fukk generally because they feel things dont ever concern them. These are the indifferent and the young. I'd bet anything on Trump going full retard in this last year. So long as he is under investigation he and his people will continue to shoot themselves in the foot. This is just the slowest death in history its all about the timing. We witnessed them try and paint Rick Perry as the Ukraine call mastermind, this shyt is all jokes at this point

 

[Dusty Bake Activate]

To be honest I don't think anybody here expects Trump to mount some kind of competent defense.

But does he really have to? Forty percent of voters are going to support him even if Dems make the best impeachment case in legal history. His defense could be "FAKE NEWS!" and it'd more than suffice for them.

I’m not convinced this Ukraine shyt will change anybody’s opinion of him.

For someone to be voting for him or considering voting for him and to decide not to because of this means that nothing he’s already done has been too far for them, but this is. Basically people would have to say...

p*ssy grabbing

Violating the emoluments clause

Kids in cages

Admitting he obstructed justice by firing Comey live on 60 Minutes

Muslim ban

Callling Nazis very fine people

Defending Putin and throwing the US intelligence community under the bus

Dissing historical allies are asskissing brutal dictators

Holding off foreign aid to Ukraine contingent upon investigating Joe Biden’s son being paid 55k a month to be on the board of an energy company

 

[Json]

I’m not convinced this Ukraine shyt will change anybody’s opinion of him.

For someone to be voting for him or considering voting for him and to decide not to because of this means that nothing he’s already done has been too far for them, but this is. Basically people would have to say...

p*ssy grabbing

Violating the emoluments clause

Kids in cages

Admitting he obstructed justice by firing Comey live on 60 Minutes

Muslim ban

Callling Nazis very fine people

Defending Putin and throwing the US intelligence community under the bus

Dissing historical allies are asskissing brutal dictators

Holding off foreign aid to Ukraine contingent upon investigating Joe Biden’s son being paid 55k a month to be on the board of an energy company

You’re concern trolling cause everyone already had this argument before in this thread.

The other contingency for Trump getting re-elect is to retake the Senate and neuter him politically(no more judges) but to do that you have to dislodge faux Moderates like Collins and rally Dems to participate.


The difference is that with this Ukraine stuff it’s easier to run an ad of Republicans okaying Trump corruption than Mueller’s non-judgement judgment.

 

[88m3]

The Hill
JUST IN: A dozen House Democrats are calling on the Ambassador to the European Union, Gordon Sondland, to resign over revelations about his role in President Trump's effort to pressure Ukraine to investigate 2020 presidential candidate Joe Biden: “If these allegations are true, anyone complicit in the president’s alleged attempts to pressure a foreign leader into interfering with our election should be removed from office immediately."


About this website

THEHILL.COM

Several House Democrats call on EU ambassador to resign amid Trump-Ukraine scandal
Sondland is set to appear for a scheduled House deposition Tuesday.

 

[Dusty Bake Activate]

The key to defeating Trump are the voters who have rarely, if ever, been involved in the political process. Those people don't get polled and don't give a fukk generally because they feel things dont ever concern them. These are the indifferent and the young. I'd bet anything on Trump going full retard in this last year. So long as he is under investigation he and his people will continue to shoot themselves in the foot. This is just the slowest death in history its all about the timing. We witnessed them try and paint Rick Perry as the Ukraine call mastermind, this shyt is all jokes at this point

Lol you really think those waffly unengaged voters give a shyt about this?

The problem is the only people who would give a fukk about the violating the constitution by asking for interference from a foreign power are already politically engaged and have an opinion on it.

The uninvolved indifferent types you’re talking about hated civics class and probably can’t name the 3 branches of government.

The sad truth that Trump has exposed and exploited is that the average person doesn’t really care about the rule of law, separation of powers or the sacredness of the constitution that all our institutions take for granted. Dems tested the political waters with the Russia thing and it didn’t rank in the top 5 concerns of voters.

Having the Trump admin grilled by Congress could help, but you have to also consider it may backfire and persuadable voters might think even if Trump was wrong in how did the Ukraine thing, it doesn’t warrant impeachment and removal from office. You know he won’t get removed by the Senate and he’s gonna brag about how he won against the deep state coup...twice, and that may make him look “strong” and the Dems look petty and partisan to some voters.

 

[88m3]

The Hill
JUST IN: A dozen House Democrats are calling on the Ambassador to the European Union, Gordon Sondland, to resign over revelations about his role in President Trump's effort to pressure Ukraine to investigate 2020 presidential candidate Joe Biden: “If these allegations are true, anyone complicit in the president’s alleged attempts to pressure a foreign leader into interfering with our election should be removed from office immediately."


About this website

THEHILL.COM

Several House Democrats call on EU ambassador to resign amid Trump-Ukraine scandal

 

[88m3]

The Hill
·
JUST IN: Former Trump officials and campaign advisers for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reportedly met at Trump International Hotel months before President Trump pressured Zelensky over the phone to investigate 2020 presidential candidate Joe Biden.


About this website

THEHILL.COM

Ex-Trump officials met with Zelensky campaign aides at Trump hotel earlier this year: report

 

[Dusty Bake Activate]

Senator Doug Jones: ‘Smoking gun’ unlikely in impeachment inquiry

 

[Regular_P]

It shouldn't take this long to get his tax returns through the courts. What happens when this reprieve is overturned and he still refuses to turn them over?

 

[Hood Critic]

It shouldn't take this long to get his tax returns through the courts. What happens when this reprieve is overturned and he still refuses to turn them over?

They would come from his accountant firm, not him directly.

 

[Arithmetic]

Look who is back

 

[Pressure]