I get you're concerns but the current level of inflation is a direct result of Long COVID and the Ukraine War.You completely misinterpreted my posts but I'll try one more time. I was saying when the Feds and politicians talk about the economy, they are speaking more on a macro level (big business) versus the micro level which is ordinary people. Ordinary people hear the economy is doing great while their money is being stretched thinner. The Feds are not talking about regular Americans are doing well when they talk about the economy.
As for your second point, I'm not close to being a Harvard grad. However, the older I get I notice a high level of bullshyt from so called experts. The Feds is in a position where they are not audited nor accountable to anyone for their decisions that literally impact everyone. Also correct me if I'm wrong but is the information made public of their research and tools to reach their conclusions? I am highly skeptical of experts who just expect people to take their word without sharing the assessment of their work.
Demand for housing skyrocketed after the stimmy and the FED raised rates to strengthen the dollar so home loans became unaffordable so oldsters who would've downsized couldn't find buyers so they stayed in their houses and renters kept renting so demand went skyhgh
Same with Ukrainian grain most of that shyt shyt goes to Africa and the middle east but when it was shut down they had to source grain from america which made the price of food increase.
The Fed raises rates loans become harder to get Loans to banks and businesses become harder to get they pass the increases down the line and raises for employees especially lower performing employees lessen and at some point layoffs happen.
It all matters what affects the Macro trikles down to the Mirco.
The experts make projections they could be wrong and they can't account for every eventuality no one is infallable but they do look at things that we don't look at that's why they're experts. a Mechnaic working for 20 years ain't infalliable but he knows a thing or two about cars. guys studying economic trends in China and poring over historical data knows a thing or two about the global economy.