There is absolutely no chance Jeb Bush loses the 2016 presidential election

[Spiritual Stratocaster]

As a woman I'd imagine it to be difficult to support a candidate and party that support rape.

Though remember females have shown they can forgive....in the right circumstances


Look at the caping for Lena Dunham and her sticking objects in her baby sister vagina

 

[NkrumahWasRight Is Wrong]

For anybody who thinks the GOP can win -

http://www.270towin.com/2012_Election/interactive_map


That's the electoral map from last election. Please enlighten us on what states you think they're likely to win that would give them the 270.


Even if I spot them Florida and Ohio, they still lose. Hell, I can give them Florida, Ohio, and VA (GOP winning all these is a real stretch) and they still don't come out on top.

Jeb has no chance of beating Clinton in MN MI or WI, and is a long shot for VA.

He doesn't have FL on lock either. He and Clinton are polling neck and neck there, and FL went blue the last 2 cycles.

But let's give him FL and assume he carries all the states Romney did. That puts him at 235.

Let's be generous and give him VA too. He's still at 248 and needs 22 more electoral votes somehow.

I just don't see it. shyt, he could win OH too and still be 2 electoral votes short.

There will be a new crop of voters who will be 18+ that weren't in 2012, and they overwhelmingly vote Democrat, while the GOP's base is literally dying.

http://www.politico.com/magazine/st...-dying-off-literally-118035.html#.VYzRp1L3bCQ

His wife being hispanic won't be a factor. I think Obama locked up the hispanic vote for the Dems for at least a generation with his immigration bill actually.

He needs FL,VA,OH and one of NH/NV/NM..plus would have to hold all states.

In reality, they have to hope Hillary bores everyone to death and doesnt disenchant Bernie supporters after beating him. If he gains reasonable traction (wont win) and ppl stay home then she could lose some swing states. Bernie is to her left and those out to the end of the extremes are most likely to vote party line.

 

[NkrumahWasRight Is Wrong]

As a woman I'd imagine it to be difficult to support a candidate and party that support rape.

They wouldnt. Theyd vote 3rd party or not vote

 

[CHL]

Though remember females have shown they can forgive....in the right circumstances


Look at the caping for Lena Dunham and her sticking objects in her baby sister vagina

Not this shyt again

 

[filial_piety]

• Bushes are UNDEfukkINGFEATED in first term elections.
• Wife is Hispanic
• Has multiracial children
• Has bush money for the election...basically limitless
• Is from the establishment and old money WILL vote for him
• Will win Florida a pivotal swing state
• If dems present Hillary, the "no more bush" narrative is dead because she's just more Clinton.
• He is one of the few politicians maybe the ONLY that can rally and unite the GOP

Just get used to it now. Jeb Bush WILL win 2016, save this if you doubt it

I personally think that you're onto something. I don't know about it being a 'lock' but I don't think that Hillary will automatically be ascend and inherit the presidency simply based on the past election results of the movement that Barack Obama orchestrated in the past two elections.

Using a the election of 2012 is entirely misleading simply based on the historical fact that unseating an incumbent has only happened twice in the U.S. history; based on the premise alone it was highly unlikely to happen to any sitting President at that time. Heck people thought Bush was going to be unseated in 2004 by Kerry even given his spiraling unpopularity and dismal approval ratings of the Iraq invasion--and look what happened there...he won the popular vote AND electoral vote' by a greater margin than he did in the 2000 election.

As for the electoral math, it isn't a lock in the battleground states. In 2012 Obama (the incumbent) won them by a margin of 3 points against a very unpopular, unknown and seemingly' out of touch 2nd tier candidate like Mitt Romney. Electoral votes are determined by voter turn out per state, and some states do come down to being almost evenly split, so much to the point that you just don't know( which is why they are called "battlegrounds" to begin with). As someone else mentioned before, everything resets once those 8 years are up.

Now if Hillary isn't able to gin' up the very same campaign that Obama did in 2008 (arguably the most successful campaign in election history which even won him the Nobel Peace Prize) and if she isn't able to get people out there to vote for her and to believe in her, then I think it could be anyone's game.

Shyt, you already have people like Bernie Sanders drawing a sharp contrast between the ideologies that they want and the ideology that she is willing to offer and many Democrats are beginning to listen; Bernie is growing more popular by the month.

I personally don't see the 'black vote' rallying in numbers like they did with Obama to get out there and vote for her, and I don't think the gap between Hispanics who voted for Obama and the percentage who will vote for Hillary will replicate the last election either. The hispanic vote will probably favor Hillary, but I think it'll be much closer given the fact that Jeb is playing the 'compassionate conservative' card like GW did (and he won something like 40+% of the Hisp vote). What Hillary does have though undoubtedly is the 'female vote,' so that may be a game changer.

If I had to hedge my bets and put money on it--I'd say Hillary has it, but I think that hardcore Democrats are getting way beyond themselves on this one. It was Hillary's for the taking in 2008--and look what happened there...and it's a major mistake to think that she can rouse people like the way that Obama was able to inspire 'Hope and Change' by voting for her. With gay marriage (the Civil Rights issue of the times) and the ACA ruling out of the way and with the troops already pulled from the War, and arguably with the economy balancing out, what is she really able to run on?

Like you said, she is No Bill Clinton....she will have to do the talking and the rousing.

 

[feelosofer]

Honestly as a republican im not worried about controlling the presidency. The gop controls everything else.

As long as the democrats can only get their base out for generals they will continue to get creamed.

Having Obama as chief executive has really clouded how shytty the Democratic Party has become. They should have so many more talented politicians than they do. Their donors and voters are opposing classes in the political struggle.

President Obama is one of the best in my opinion, and the democratic establishment threw him into the fire instead of capitalizing. Think about how republican the countries state and federal govts have gotten in the last 7 years, but Obama has basically held it down for the rational center in this country by himself .

Interesting perspective and I have to agree.

 

[No1]

Okay my fault. So she got some new things she didnt have in 2008? I am totally mistaken breh. Theres no way she can lose to anyone. I mean, she didnt have those things against Obama... Right?

Not that I like your argument, but Sanders will be more competitive than people are giving him credit. The idea that he cannot win the general election is a bit exaggerated given the fact that he will still win the projected blue states which is like 242 if you discount Wisconsin which will go blue for president and which will probably also have Russ Feingold fighting for his spot back. So let's say 252, all Sanders would need to do is find 18 more electoral votes between Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, Florida, Ohio and New Mexico.

As for Hillary winning the presidential election, she would win for the same reason I just listed above and she'd probably put North Carolina and Indiana in play which Sanders probably would not.

 

[Mr Hate Coffee]

I personally think that you're onto something. I don't know about it being a 'lock' but I don't think that Hillary will automatically be ascend and inherit the presidency simply based on the past election results of the movement that Barack Obama orchestrated in the past two elections.

Using a the election of 2012 is entirely misleading simply based on the historical fact that unseating an incumbent has only happened twice in the U.S. history; based on the premise alone it was highly unlikely to happen to any sitting President at that time. Heck people thought Bush was going to be unseated in 2004 by Kerry even given his spiraling unpopularity and dismal approval ratings of the Iraq invasion--and look what happened there...he won the popular vote AND electoral vote' by a greater margin than he did in the 2000 election.

As for the electoral math, it isn't a lock in the battleground states. In 2012 Obama (the incumbent) won them by a margin of 3 points against a very unpopular, unknown and seemingly' out of touch 2nd tier candidate like Mitt Romney. Electoral votes are determined by voter turn out per state, and some states do come down to being almost evenly split, so much to the point that you just don't know( which is why they are called "battlegrounds" to begin with). As someone else mentioned before, everything resets once those 8 years are up.

Now if Hillary isn't able to gin' up the very same campaign that Obama did in 2008 (arguably the most successful campaign in election history which even won him the Nobel Peace Prize) and if she isn't able to get people out there to vote for her and to believe in her, then I think it could be anyone's game.

Shyt, you already have people like Bernie Sanders drawing a sharp contrast between the ideologies that they want and the ideology that she is willing to offer and many Democrats are beginning to listen; Bernie is growing more popular by the month.

I personally don't see the 'black vote' rallying in numbers like they did with Obama to get out there and vote for her, and I don't think the gap between Hispanics who voted for Obama and the percentage who will vote for Hillary will replicate the last election either. The hispanic vote will probably favor Hillary, but I think it'll be much closer given the fact that Jeb is playing the 'compassionate conservative' card like GW did (and he won something like 40+% of the Hisp vote). What Hillary does have though undoubtedly is the 'female vote,' so that may be a game changer.

If I had to hedge my bets and put money on it--I'd say Hillary has it, but I think that hardcore Democrats are getting way beyond themselves on this one. It was Hillary's for the taking in 2008--and look what happened there...and it's a major mistake to think that she can rouse people like the way that Obama was able to inspire 'Hope and Change' by voting for her. With gay marriage (the Civil Rights issue of the times) and the ACA ruling out of the way and with the troops already pulled from the War, and arguably with the economy balancing out, what is she really able to run on?

Like you said, she is No Bill Clinton....she will have to do the talking and the rousing.

That's all fine and good but until I see a more promising candidate from either side, it's her election to lose. Sanders is cool but he doesn't have the look nor the name recognition to rally voters nationwide. The Republicans don't have anyone that's compelling enough.

That's truly the sad part. If the Republicans could put together a candidate with some fukking sense, focus on fiscal conservatism, and throw all that archaic social conservatism shyt to the bushes they could easily steal this election.

I'm a Democrat and I'm not excited about Hillary AT ALL. I may not even vote. She's gonna need Obama to get her black vote numbers up. This aint the 90's.

 

[vaudevillevillain]

I don't think people realize how the electoral college works

break it down for us

 

[Jello Biafra]

While Hillary is no Bill, Jeb is no GW.
Nobody wants to "have a beer" with Jeb Bush or will buy him trying to talk tough.
In terms of bland personality, Jeb is in the same boat as Hillary.

 

[Ethnic Vagina Finder]

Clintons are undefeated against bushes tho

 

[Spin]

Honestly as a republican im not worried about controlling the presidency. The gop controls everything else.

As long as the democrats can only get their base out for generals they will continue to get creamed.

Having Obama as chief executive has really clouded how shytty the Democratic Party has become. They should have so many more talented politicians than they do. Their donors and voters are opposing classes in the political struggle.

President Obama is one of the best in my opinion, and the democratic establishment threw him into the fire instead of capitalizing. Think about how republican the countries state and federal govts have gotten in the last 7 years, but Obama has basically held it down for the rational center in this country by himself .

What's crazy is Obama has been one of the only grownups in his own party. Elizabeth Warren's self promoting ass has been taking cheap shots at Obama for awhile. You also have the spineless Democrats that "protest" the TPP deal but when it comes down to it, they will fall in line with the President. Obama is getting shyt done while the majority on the left are just bsing. Right now, the Democrat bench is weak outside of Clinton. I will give Cory Booker credit as he seems to be laying low until the whole Hillary era is over. He wouldn't win right now so there is no point for him to be out there pretending he has a shot.

I think Jeb is going to surprise people. The reaction I'm seeing from many people that actually see him speak is that they don't hate him. These same people hated W and just automatically labeled Jeb without ever hearing him speak or knowing his positions. Walker, Rubio, Paul, etc are all slowly dropping in the polls since their initial spikes. It's becoming clear that Jeb is the only real Republican candidate. The thing about the Republican party is once they choose a candidate, they usually as a group go all in even if they don't 100% like the guy. Jeb will be much more liked than Romney was.

The minority vote will be huge this election. Hillary won't get the same black turnout as she is not Obama and doesn't have the charisma that Bill had. Like someone mentioned, the Hispanic vote is going to be much closer even if it still tilts Hillary. Jeb has assets in this area such as his family and the fact he can speak fluent Spanish. It's going to be up to Jeb and his campaign to not piss off the minority vote.

Did any of you watch the Hillary announcement speech? She seems like she is talking at you. She still has the advantage as of now, but I think the election is going to be much closer than people think. There is a reason they had Terry McAuliffe become Governor in Virginia. The state is going to be key just like Florida was to W in 2000.

 

[Midrash]

A hispanic wife won't mean shyt, she will be seen as a sellout the same way we call people like Mia Love sellouts.

 

[filial_piety]

That's all fine and good but until I see a more promising candidate from either side, it's her election to lose. Sanders is cool but he doesn't have the look nor the name recognition to rally voters nationwide. The Republicans don't have anyone that's compelling enough.

That's truly the sad part. If the Republicans could put together a candidate with some fukking sense, focus on fiscal conservatism, and throw all that archaic social conservatism shyt to the bushes they could easily steal this election.

I'm a Democrat and I'm not excited about Hillary AT ALL. I may not even vote. She's gonna need Obama to get her black vote numbers up. This aint the 90's.

I think the Republican party is stacked. I've never seen the depth chart look the way that it does now. I think they have a ton of solid choices unlike the last 2012 round where most of them sat out. All in all, they aren't looking for Democrats to vote for them (cept maybe Rand Paul)...they are hoping for a larger Republican turn out.

That being said, you precisely proved my point in the bolded; Hillary's slip up is that she is no Barack Obama...and she sure isn't her husband. Even you yourself said you may not show up to vote...and that's what a lot of Republicans re banking on. A lot of them do not think that Hillary can pull off a 2008-esque Barack Obama momentous turn out for their party.

 

[88m3]

Not that I like your argument, but Sanders will be more competitive than people are giving him credit. The idea that he cannot win the general election is a bit exaggerated given the fact that he will still win the projected blue states which is like 242 if you discount Wisconsin which will go blue for president and which will probably also have Russ Feingold fighting for his spot back. So let's say 252, all Sanders would need to do is find 18 more electoral votes between Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, Florida, Ohio and New Mexico.

As for Hillary winning the presidential election, she would win for the same reason I just listed above and she'd probably put North Carolina and Indiana in play which Sanders probably would not.

Someone from the north east as President? I think not...