There is absolutely no chance Jeb Bush loses the 2016 presidential election

[Dusty Bake Activate]

yeah i think the motivation for the democratic base to get a black man elected was greater than the motivation to elect an 80 year old "maverick" or a mormon robot, i think thats obvious

also independents were mostly ambivalent or pro obama and ready for a change from bush and never cared about romney

i think its hillary that doesnt have the numbers, she doesnt have a motivated base and she doesnt represent change

Everything you just typed was pure bullshyt. "Motivating your base" means nothing. Hillary has a larger plurality of voters and has favorable electoral math in more states. The GOP has dwindling numbers and are concentrated mostly in already red states.

 

[theworldismine13]

Everything you just typed was pure bullshyt. "Motivating your base" means nothing. Hillary has a larger plurality of voters and has favorable electoral math in more states. The GOP has dwindling numbers and are concentrated mostly in already red states.

motivating your base means nothing? famous last words lol

 

[Dusty Bake Activate]

motivating your base means nothing? famous last words lol

It doesn't. Not in generals anyway. Only midterms. Your base is going to vote for president regardless. That's why they're your base.

You win the presidency by expanding your base. That's what Obama did. Hillary has a larger base than the Repubs.

 

[TLR Is Mental Poison]

Im still trying to think who is going to vote hardcore GOP besides angry old white men and puppets

And moderate Republicans are too to back the conservative jihad down

No @theworldismine13, unless the GOP gets a hail mary candidate they are not looking good. And you know it. That is why you are too p*ssy to take a ban bet

 

[theworldismine13]

It doesn't. Not in generals anyway. Only midterms. Your base is going to vote for president regardless. That's why they're your base.

You win the presidency by expanding your base. That's what Obama did. Hillary has a larger base than the Repubs.

why do you keep talking like you have some secret info that i dont know about

there are all kinds of factors that effect the vote, base is one of them, and so is level of enthusiasm, so is the economy, and there are other factors like likability, and the party in power

if you make your prediction based on the base, thats fine, you have a very simple analysis based on what you believe is the base, my analysis is more sophisticated and takes more factors into account

but at the end of the day all you can do is bump this next November and see which model is correct

 

[Madvillain]

I just knew ya'll were arguing with TWISM

 

[theworldismine13]

Im still trying to think who is going to vote hardcore GOP besides angry old white men and puppets

And moderate Republicans are too to back the conservative jihad down

No @theworldismine13, unless the GOP gets a hail mary candidate they are not looking good. And you know it. That is why you are too p*ssy to take a ban bet

i dont need to take a ban bet, that's just some corny shyt you haters are pushing

 

[88m3]

The Internet Just Spent the Day Making Fun of Jeb Bush
His #JebCanFixIt hashtag went viral—but not in a good way.

The internet just spent the day making fun of Jeb Bush.

nah yo...

 

[jadillac]

• Bushes are UNDEfukkINGFEATED in first term elections.
• Wife is Hispanic
• Has multiracial children
• Has bush money for the election...basically limitless
• Is from the establishment and old money WILL vote for him
• Will win Florida a pivotal swing state
• If dems present Hillary, the "no more bush" narrative is dead because she's just more Clinton.
• He is one of the few politicians maybe the ONLY that can rally and unite the GOP

Just get used to it now. Jeb Bush WILL win 2016, save this if you doubt it

I would've agreed with this on every point.

America has surprised me thus far.

I still don't count him out of the running yet. The Bush family are snakes.

 

[Dusty Bake Activate]

why do you keep talking like you have some secret info that i dont know about

there are all kinds of factors that effect the vote, base is one of them, and so is level of enthusiasm, so is the economy, and there are other factors like likability, and the party in power

if you make your prediction based on the base, thats fine, you have a very simple analysis based on what you believe is the base, my analysis is more sophisticated and takes more factors into account

but at the end of the day all you can do is bump this next November and see which model is correct

No it isn't. I study the empirical data. You pull stuff out of your ass. This whole "energizing your base" bullshyt is a myth born out of a pseudoanalysis of the 04 election that claimed Bush won by inspiring evangelical voters. It was flawed. A more detailed and accurate analysis showed Bush really won by convincing independents and people on the fence that he was the stronger candidate against terrorism.

Everybody's base comes out during a presidential. Rallying the base is only important during midterms. If rallying the base really mattered like that the Repubs wouldn't have taken back to back L's to a black man named Barack Hussein Obama while their base consisted of white racist senior citizens who have nothing else to do but watch Fox News and vote.

 

[TNC]

No it isn't. I study the empirical data. You pull stuff out of your ass. This whole "energizing your base" bullshyt is a myth born out of a pseudoanalysis of the 04 election that claimed Bush won by inspiring evangelical voters. It was flawed. A more detailed and accurate analysis showed Bush really won by convincing independents and people on the fence that he was the stronger candidate against terrorism.

Everybody's base comes out during a presidential. Rallying the base is only important during midterms. If rallying the base really mattered like that the Repubs wouldn't have taken back to back L's to a black man named Barack Hussein Obama while their base consisted of white racist senior citizens who have nothing else to do but watch Fox News and vote.

 

[CHL]

Its over

 

[TLR Is Mental Poison]

I just knew ya'll were arguing with TWISM

A decade in nothing has changed

 

[theworldismine13]

No it isn't. I study the empirical data. You pull stuff out of your ass. This whole "energizing your base" bullshyt is a myth born out of a pseudoanalysis of the 04 election that claimed Bush won by inspiring evangelical voters. It was flawed. A more detailed and accurate analysis showed Bush really won by convincing independents and people on the fence that he was the stronger candidate against terrorism.

Everybody's base comes out during a presidential. Rallying the base is only important during midterms. If rallying the base really mattered like that the Repubs wouldn't have taken back to back L's to a black man named Barack Hussein Obama while their base consisted of white racist senior citizens who have nothing else to do but watch Fox News and vote.

no it isnt what? elections arent based on a myriad of factors?

i didnt say that the republican was going to rally the base, so i dont see what any so called pseudo analysis of bush has to do with what im saying

what i am saying is that the obama electorate is going to dissipate because of lack of enthusiasm of hillary, now that is just a preditction, anybody is welcome to disagree with it and we will see what happens in November, but the notion that its some far fetched idea that im pulling out of my ass is what is BS

lack of enthusiasm for Hillary is a well known and acknowledged risk factor

Democratic Turnout a '16 Risk Factor, Poll Finds
Democratic Turnout a '16 Risk Factor, Poll Finds | RealClearPolitics

The Real Math Behind Hillary Clinton's Candidacy
The Real Math Behind Hillary Clinton's Candidacy

How black voters could determine the 2016 election
How black voters could determine the 2016 election


you dont have any secret info or superior analytical skills, just stop it

 

[Red Shield]

• Bushes are UNDEfukkINGFEATED in first term elections.
• Wife is Hispanic
• Has multiracial children
• Has bush money for the election...basically limitless
• Is from the establishment and old money WILL vote for him
• Will win Florida a pivotal swing state
• If dems present Hillary, the "no more bush" narrative is dead because she's just more Clinton.
• He is one of the few politicians maybe the ONLY that can rally and unite the GOP

Just get used to it now. Jeb Bush WILL win 2016, save this if you doubt it

Before the sonnings by Trump... I woulda really agreed.

Still think this comes down to Hill vs Jeb tho.... well Hill vs someone anyway