With a Russian takeover of Ukraine, however, the re-emergence of a serious Russian conventional threat on the Polish and Romanian borders would transform the strategic situation in Europe. It would require a remobilization by NATO states and the deployment of significant forces on those borders. It would transform the Black Sea into a Russian lake, increasing pressure on Turkey (still a NATO ally, for all its problems). It would seriously question the willingness of the U.S., the European Union and NATO to defend NATO's eastern members. It would add Ukraine's 45 million people and heavy industrial base to Russia's. And it would send a devastating signal to China and other predators about Western weakness, especially after America's ignominious retreat from Afghanistan.
