The Official Sports Card Discussion Thread
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Knockout_LR_Freshmart
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@Regular_P
Say I was willing to drop 25-50k on some cards, should I wait or is not still a good time to buy?
Say I was willing to drop 25-50k on some cards, should I wait or is not still a good time to buy?
@Codeine Bryant
You always seem active in here and that you know what you're talking about, so I'd ask the same question to you.
Unless you need the money, I’d try to hold as long as possible.Base PSA 10 Kobe Topps are going for $5K+ again. I'm gonna have to sell mine. That's an insane price.
Anything Kobe in the card/collectible/memorabilia world will only appreciate in value from here on out.
Unless you can take that 5k, throw it into markets/real estate and beat the hobby surge. Which would be fair, given that it’s a base card.
Do you, breh. But that’s kind of how I’m looking at not just my one Kobe auto but my entire collection (~80% Luka).
If you had asked me this question a year ago, I’d have a lot of recommendations for you. Mahomes, Luka, Durant, Bron.
There were two big surges in the hobby in terms of valuations and pricing across the board. One happened around covid times (feb-March 2020) and the second happened during the NBA bubble. Basically everything Luka took off in the hobby during these times, Kobe died so collectors rushed to grab his stuff, Last Dance dropped which brought more casuals in, and you continued to have Zion/Ja/Herro mania. The hype and surge for certain players essentially elevated the pricing of everybody in the hobby. You can’t just have Luka’s triple and Trae sits flat. Any player booming is good for the overall hobby/sport.
Now, it’s a bloodbath to even think about ripping boxes of cards. Your best bet is to just buy singles of the card you want and call it a day. Well, second best bet.
I don’t know if @Regular_P would agree with me, but in my opinion, the best and safest way to make money is to buy and sit on sealed wax. Literally to buy boxes or cases of cards that are still factory sealed by Panini/Topps from a good-great rookie class and just keep it stashed. They always go up in value.
It’s really difficult to recommend which singles to buy in the current market. Everything is astronomically priced at this point. I’ll tag you and let you know if anything pops up that I find blatantly undervalued.
2017 Patrick Mahomes Optic Holo PSA 10 are going for 3.7-4k. I think that’s still undervalued. For perspective, I got one at 675 last year right around this time. And I also bought a raw around that time for 300. Right now, Luka optic Holos go for 6-7k. I think Mahomes is a GOAT tier player, but he’s still being treated a bit cautiously in the hobby. There’s a lower print run for Mahomes than there is for Luka and Zion. And Mahomes is still considerably cheaper than Luka, which seems a bit off. Basketball and baseball are the darlings of the hobby, which is something to always keep in mind. Football is collected, but not to that degree. But I don’t think that matters for a GOAT tier player like Mahomes. I personally think Mahomes is still very undervalued in the hobby.
Friend and I wanted to get in on Zion, but we didn’t feel terribly comfortable buying his high end stuff last year given his injury and weight concerns. We bought a case of 2019 National Treasures Basketball at release for around 17,899. Its appreciated to about 25k. I told my friend in willing to get out of once it hits 30-35k, which is inevitable, imo. This allows us to essentially prospect on Ja/Zion/Rui/Herro etc without having the risk exposure of just one guy. And the NT Zion Logoman still hasn’t surfaced (Ja has), so the value of the boxes continue to rise and more is ripped. Just an anecdote about how “safe” sealed wax is. I don’t have to worry about any player coming in out of shape or getting hurt. Luka worries me at the beginning of the season. Ja investors are probably weathering the storm right now. I have no such issues by owning sealed.
If I were to buy, I'd look to buy singles. Would be willing to spend 20-30k, but from what I've been reading, everything is extremely high right now. Obviously I can wait to see if it goes back down, but could also miss the train going forward too.
You can still cop Luka,Zion,LeBron cards but ur not gonna get back as much as you would have 2 years ago before the surge...
The only thing I see really getting a nice 2-3x boost in the next few weeks is Lamar or Mahomes, if they win the SB. Josh Allen as well, but idk how I feel about the Bills atm.
If Mahomes repeats, sub 5k optic Holos will never be seen again.
I personally think Joe Burrow is really undervalued. I understand why, though. I truly believe in him as a player. He has it. And those are really the only guys you want to invest in, the ones that have it. But it’s hard to trust Cincinnati front office to give him the tools for a prosperous career...
Current NBA rookie class does nothing for me. Unless you’re a big believer in Ball, Wiseman, or Edwards...
I’m still buying Luka here and there, but it’s gotten ridiculously expensive and I’m always wondering if I’m letting my bias get the best of me. I can’t recommend Luka objectively, given my rooting (and financial) interest, but I do think he will continue to appreciate in the hobby since he has a very unique collector base (cacs collecting cacs) and the “potential” obsession will still be there for a few more years until he’s 24/25.
Honestly, 2017 Mahomes Optic Holo would be my current rec. I would buy one right now at around 3.5k if I didn’t already have a couple.
Anything Bron, Kobe, or MJ will only appreciate in value. Kobe and MJ growth will be slow and steady from here on out, imo. Bron could surge again if/when he wins another title.
IM passing on this years rookie class but ill be collecting next years HEAVY (Cade,Suggs,Kuminga)
I'm gonna piggy back off what's already been said and it's gonna be pretty long winded.
I don't know how much you'll read so if you don't get anything else out of this, stick to high grade rookie cards, especially since you're relatively new to this. Those will always go up if a player excels. Know that PSA 10s command a premium over pretty much everything. You want to go all in, get PSA 10s. Don't buy lower than a PSA 9 unless it's vintage or one of the high end brands with thick cards like National Treasures, Exquisite or Immaculate.
The way things have been going, today's prices are tomorrow's bargains. There's four sure things that will never go down unless society has an economic collapse: Jordan, Kobe, LeBron and Brady. You can look at them like blue chip stocks. There is no downside with them. Their key cards will only continue to appreciate.
I'd put Mahomes in his own tier below them. He's already priced really high but if he stays healthy and continues the pace he's on, he'll be up there with Brady and Montana. Already on a great team with a great coach and should compete for Super Bowls for the next few years at least. Football is the scariest to put money in because obviously he's always one hit away. That being said, even as high as his stuff already is, I could see it going a lot higher in the future. Not 10x higher but I could see some current $4-5,000 cards becoming $15-20,000 down the road.
One thing I'll say that's maybe in disagreement with @Codeine Bryant about LeBron possibly surging with another title or two in comparison to MJ and Kobe (the three of them are the Holy Trinity of basketball cards) staying more steady. Those three are so linked together that if/when one of them ticks up in price, the other two always go up as well not too long after. The only way I could see LeBron dusting those two is if he wins three or four straight to close his career with the Lakers. If the Lakers win it all again this year, LeBron will take another leap in prices but I would expect the other two to bump up as well. One of them going up is good news for the others.
I view Brady the same way in relation to Mahomes. If the Bucs win it all, that will push Brady's cards to another realm but if the Chiefs do and push Mahomes prices closer to Brady, I think there will be a correction to Brady's prices where they'll rise. Current players always get the hype but eventually, money trickles back to the Big 4 because they'll seem undervalued in comparison when you look at the big picture of their career accomplishments.
The safest bet of anything is sealed wax like @Codeine Bryant said. Pretty much everything from key years goes up over time. Key years generally coincide with key rookies.
Of established guys who aren't astronomical yet, I think Durant, Curry and Aaron Rodgers are the three I'd say have the most to gain if they win another title or two. Could probably throw Russell Wilson in there too although his cards went up a lot this past year.
Deshaun Watson is undervalued in my eyes. Josh Allen's been outselling him and this is his first good season. If Watson gets traded to a better team, I could see his prices going way up.
Baseball is a crap shoot. Of current players, the pecking order is Trout then everybody else. Most careers are so long and guys have peaks and valleys. Even if they're amazing for ten straight years, when their career is winding down, people move on. That's why Trout dwarfs the prices of guys like Pujols and Cabrera.
jilla82
Superstar
How liquid is the market?
like...if I had a card worth $5K on the high end...how quickly could I sell that?
like...if I had a card worth $5K on the high end...how quickly could I sell that?
Very quickly. There is an insane amount of money in the hobby right now.
Youhadasparkwhenustarted
Superstar
Mildly related but this thread reminds me I got some old pokemon and sports cards I need to send in to PSA. If I get 10's on any of them I'm probably getting a rack for them at least.