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A few preliminary thoughts on Florida
Posted on August 4, 2017 at 11:59:33 AM by Jeff
1) It's kind of shocking how little talent Florida has. Obviously they suffered through a weak 2015 class like we did, but McElwain did not bring the heat in the 2016 and 2017 classes. They have a lot of middling recruits replacing guys that left for the NFL.
2) Florida's offensive line versus our defensive line is a huge mismatch. Their run blocking was poor, and while their pass blocking stats were ok that was also a function of Florida running a lot of three step drops with their noodle armed QBs. I sincerely doubt they're going to keep the QB clean on 3rd and long against Winovich and Gary.
2) Jordan Scarlett is also a plugger, not a home run hitter. To the extent our front 7 struggles it's against a slippery guy that's dangerous on the edge (Cook, Wadley), not a guy trying to grind out 4 yards per carry. I think there's a good chance we totally swamp their running game.
3) Florida's WRs against our young CBs is the one favorable matchup they have. Antonio Callaway is a little small for an outside WR but he's slippery and can get over the top of the defense - think Jeremy Gallon. His stats are more indicative of a possession guy, but that's more a function of Florida's QBs not being able to get him the ball. Tyrie Cleveland was a near 5* entering his sophomore year who was productive on a limited basis last year - I'd expect him to step up big. Finally, they have some good underneath options in their slots and TEs. But none of this is going to matter if nobody can get them the ball. We know Del Rio sucks, Franks was widely whispered to be looking like a total bust (hence bringing in Zaire), and then you have Malik Zaire. I like him as a QB, but we saw what happens with Rudock against Utah when you have a transfer QB who's worked with his receivers for all of 5 weeks starting in a big game against a good team. I expect the secondary is going to bust or just get beat over the top several times - whether Zaire can get them the ball is going to determine whether this is a close game or a comfortable Michigan win.
4) Florida had the heart ripped out of an excellent defense last year - they had 7 guys drafted, but unlike Michigan the cavalry doesn't appear to be waiting in the wings.
5) They lost two NFL draft picks at DT in Caleb Brantley and Joey Ivie. There's still some decent depth and talent there - Khairi Clark is a big NT who looked ok as a backup last year and was a highly regarded recruit, but the rest of their options there are just guys. Like us, they only have 3 non-true freshman at DT. DE is probably the strength of the team. Jabari Zuniga was a sleeper who came up with 5 sacks last year as a freshman (4 of which admittedly were against UMass and North Texas), Jordan Sherit projects as a mid-round draft pick, and CeCe Jefferson was a 5* coming out of high school who hasn't starred yet but still could. Cole should do ok, but I think whoever wins the RT job could be severely tested in this game.
6) LB is likely to see a huge drop off. They lost two high draft picks in Davis and Anzalone and the pipeline looks decidedly meh. The fact that David Reese, who we more or less cut from our 2016 class, is a mortal lock to start tells you all you need to know. There's little experience or talent here, and this is a front 7 that should be soft up the middle. If our interior line really is all that we should be be able to run on Florida.
7) Michigan and Florida are bringing together the two most decimated secondaries in the country - Florida lost 3 early NFL draft picks (both starting corners and a safety) and then lost another excellent safety in Marcell Harris to injury. They're moving their nickel, Duke Dawson, over to outside corner, and do have a returning quasi-starter in Nick Washington at safety. He's solid, but nothing more. While they have a lot of bodies back there they're almost all freshmen, and there are real questions over who will play nickel and the other safety position.
8) Florida's corners should do pretty well against our outside receivers, who are going to be young and playing in their first game, but I don't think it should matter. To the extent Florida has any difference makers in the front 7 it's the ends on passing downs - they play around 255 and should be moveable in the run game. Pass coverage over the middle could be an issue as well, which fits nicely into the strength of our receiving corps at slot and tight end. It's critical we stay ahead of the chains, though, because I do think Florida can get home on the pass rush and I don't have any confidence in our outside receivers in 3rd and long. We should, should be able to run the ball effectively, and if we do I think we'll cruise to a fairly comfortable win.
9) Again, it's hard to overstate what a meh job McElwain has done recruiting - he's done ok, but Harbaugh has brought in 35 4*s and 5*s in the past two years compared to just 20 for McElwain. There's not a single guy on their roster that scares me (other than maybe Callaway), and it's kind of shocking how little top end talent they have. Despite all our roster uncertainty they have 4, maybe 5 guys that would definitely start for us. They're not a bad team and they could certainly win this game, but I think we're the decided favorite and that M -4.5 is light.