The 21st edition of the Champions League has been whittled down to the final 16 participants. The draw for the round of 16 will be Thursday, Dec. 20, in Switzerland. This draw will pair teams for only one round, with the final draw setting up the bracket for the remaining eight squads to come afterward.
As usual, there are only two conditions to determine which teams can be drawn against each other: Group stage winners must play group stage runners-up and clubs from the same country cannot play each other. The former is a particularly important one to remember this time around. Usually it prevents some of the sexier matchups from occurring at this stage, but this season it had one unexpected shakeup that could lead to a potential matchup more fit for a final.
What are the best and worst draws for each team in the Champions League?
Let's start with a look at some of the stronger teams still left in the competition, according to ESPN's Soccer Power Index (SPI).
At the top are most of the usual suspects. Barcelona is once again the favorite, as has been the case for years. All runners-up should count their blessings if they can avoid the Catalans. Barcelona once again enforced its style on opponents in the UCL group stage, completing 1,400 more passes than its opponents while posting the highest completion percentage. Celtic copied Chelsea's hide-and-go-score game plan well in its upset of the Lionel Messi-led bunch during the group stage, but still teams would obviously hope to avoid any home-and-home encounter with the best team in the world.
Bayern Munich is the next best of the group. It dominated in the air in the early round, winning 66 percent of aerial duels in its attacking half. To put that into perspective, no other team has won 60 percent of its aerial duels in any of the past three Champions League campaigns. This could pose matchup nightmares for some of the smaller teams left in the competition.
Borussia Dortmund, Juventus and United would be the next toughest draws, followed by Paris Saint-Germain. Malaga or Schalke would be the dream matchup for group runners-up.
The team all group winners will hope to draw is Galatasaray. The current Turkish holders and leaders have by far the worst SPI rating of the remaining teams, a fact mirrored by the current odds market. According to SPI, all seven of Galatasaray's possible opponents would be at least a 63 percent favorite to advance with this draw.
The 800-pound elephant in the room for group winners will be where Real Madrid lands in the draw. Madrid finished behind Dortmund in the group stage and enters the draw as one of the best group runners-up in recent memory. Madrid created double the scoring chances of its opponents while scoring more goals than any other squad left (incredibly Chelsea actually scored more despite being eliminated).
The Spaniards can't play Dortmund since they were in the same group, and Malaga and an early El Clasico with Barcelona are also not in play since they are from the same country. That leaves dream scenarios for fans such as PSG, Juventus, Bayern or Man United meeting Madrid in the round of 16 still as distinct possibilities. A slightly less appealing draw with Schalke is also possible.
As always, there were some winners and losers coming out of the group stage in terms of how the draw is set up. Here are a few:
Winners
Malaga: Despite its struggles in La Liga this season, Malaga is in very good shape thanks to winning its group. It will avoid the best two runners-up since Madrid is from Spain and Milan was in its group. Thus, outside of Arsenal, Malaga will be at least a 3-in-5 favorite against any of its other four possible opponents.
Valencia: Similar to Malaga on the other side of the draw, Valencia will avoid the top two group winners since Barcelona is from Spain and it was in the same group as Bayern. So although it is still predicted to go out no matter whom it faces, its chances are much higher by avoiding two of the giants.
Losers
Arsenal: By finishing second in their group, the Gunners are in a lot of trouble. They will avoid United but have a 4-in-6 chance of facing Barcelona, Bayern, Juventus or Dortmund, all of which would be at least 2-to-1 favorites against them, according to SPI. Arsenal's best shot lies with Malaga, but even then it would be in a near coin-flip situation.
Bayern Munich, Juventus, Manchester United: By winning their respective groups, these mammoths of European soccer must have thought they would be guaranteed favorites in the round of 16. Instead, there is a 60 percent chance that one of them will be an underdog against Real Madrid.
Below, we've mapped out a cheat sheet for your UCL draw party. It has the best-case, worst-case and average scenario for all 16 clubs. This should give you an idea of what your favorite club can look forward to on Thursday the 20th.
As usual, there are only two conditions to determine which teams can be drawn against each other: Group stage winners must play group stage runners-up and clubs from the same country cannot play each other. The former is a particularly important one to remember this time around. Usually it prevents some of the sexier matchups from occurring at this stage, but this season it had one unexpected shakeup that could lead to a potential matchup more fit for a final.
What are the best and worst draws for each team in the Champions League?
Let's start with a look at some of the stronger teams still left in the competition, according to ESPN's Soccer Power Index (SPI).
At the top are most of the usual suspects. Barcelona is once again the favorite, as has been the case for years. All runners-up should count their blessings if they can avoid the Catalans. Barcelona once again enforced its style on opponents in the UCL group stage, completing 1,400 more passes than its opponents while posting the highest completion percentage. Celtic copied Chelsea's hide-and-go-score game plan well in its upset of the Lionel Messi-led bunch during the group stage, but still teams would obviously hope to avoid any home-and-home encounter with the best team in the world.
Bayern Munich is the next best of the group. It dominated in the air in the early round, winning 66 percent of aerial duels in its attacking half. To put that into perspective, no other team has won 60 percent of its aerial duels in any of the past three Champions League campaigns. This could pose matchup nightmares for some of the smaller teams left in the competition.
Borussia Dortmund, Juventus and United would be the next toughest draws, followed by Paris Saint-Germain. Malaga or Schalke would be the dream matchup for group runners-up.
The team all group winners will hope to draw is Galatasaray. The current Turkish holders and leaders have by far the worst SPI rating of the remaining teams, a fact mirrored by the current odds market. According to SPI, all seven of Galatasaray's possible opponents would be at least a 63 percent favorite to advance with this draw.
The 800-pound elephant in the room for group winners will be where Real Madrid lands in the draw. Madrid finished behind Dortmund in the group stage and enters the draw as one of the best group runners-up in recent memory. Madrid created double the scoring chances of its opponents while scoring more goals than any other squad left (incredibly Chelsea actually scored more despite being eliminated).
The Spaniards can't play Dortmund since they were in the same group, and Malaga and an early El Clasico with Barcelona are also not in play since they are from the same country. That leaves dream scenarios for fans such as PSG, Juventus, Bayern or Man United meeting Madrid in the round of 16 still as distinct possibilities. A slightly less appealing draw with Schalke is also possible.
As always, there were some winners and losers coming out of the group stage in terms of how the draw is set up. Here are a few:
Winners
Malaga: Despite its struggles in La Liga this season, Malaga is in very good shape thanks to winning its group. It will avoid the best two runners-up since Madrid is from Spain and Milan was in its group. Thus, outside of Arsenal, Malaga will be at least a 3-in-5 favorite against any of its other four possible opponents.
Valencia: Similar to Malaga on the other side of the draw, Valencia will avoid the top two group winners since Barcelona is from Spain and it was in the same group as Bayern. So although it is still predicted to go out no matter whom it faces, its chances are much higher by avoiding two of the giants.
Losers
Arsenal: By finishing second in their group, the Gunners are in a lot of trouble. They will avoid United but have a 4-in-6 chance of facing Barcelona, Bayern, Juventus or Dortmund, all of which would be at least 2-to-1 favorites against them, according to SPI. Arsenal's best shot lies with Malaga, but even then it would be in a near coin-flip situation.
Bayern Munich, Juventus, Manchester United: By winning their respective groups, these mammoths of European soccer must have thought they would be guaranteed favorites in the round of 16. Instead, there is a 60 percent chance that one of them will be an underdog against Real Madrid.
Below, we've mapped out a cheat sheet for your UCL draw party. It has the best-case, worst-case and average scenario for all 16 clubs. This should give you an idea of what your favorite club can look forward to on Thursday the 20th.
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