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Overrated, underrated in coaches' poll
It’s no specific fault of the pollsters -- though it’s silly the coaches, often biased, uninformed or both, still have a meaningful poll -- but we all err when establishing preseason rankings. It’s the way it goes. But we want to have something about which to converse in August, so we continue on these prognosticating ventures. I’m good with that. I like the conversation, and it means we can pick at the initial projection.
With the USA Today preseason coaches' poll now out, let’s examine which teams might be underrated and which might be overrated (including a pair of national title contenders) by the coaches.
Overrated
Ranked: No. 2
I didn’t ask him when I saw him this week, but based on the conversation I had with him earlier in the offseason, coach Urban Meyer likely would agree with me on this.
Of course, Meyer will want to downplay the potential of his team, and whether it really is the greatest threat to the SEC dynasty. But the fact is that most anyone I ask agrees that the Buckeyes’ 12-0 record last season was incredibly weak (relatively speaking) and might not be the best indication of what to expect in 2013.
Games against Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue, Wisconsin and Michigan were decided by a combined 23 points (4.6 per win). Two of those wins, against Purdue and Wisconsin, came in overtime. The Buckeyes won by just three points against a four-win Indiana team. So they have yet to prove they’re some sort of juggernaut, a notion Meyer offered unsolicited in the spring.
“We’re a flawed team,” he kept saying.
And it hasn’t proven that it can win when it matters, now that the NCAA cloud has dissipated. Ask Lane Kiffin. It’s a different matter altogether.
The schedule likely will keep the Buckeyes from being vastly overrated in the long run, but No. 2 -- and considering them the strongest national title contender outside Tuscaloosa -- might be asking too much of this team.
Ranked: No. 6
I like coach Kevin Sumlin and his staff a great deal, and he already has done a wonderful job in College Station, but more and more college football people I talk to are anticipating some sort of implosion from quarterback Johnny Manziel. Whatever that looks like, it would obviously affect the team. Just imagine the Aggies without Manziel. Jameill Showers transferred to UTEP. Kyle Allen enrolls in 2014. The interim is dicey, at best. Duh, I know, but A&M needs Manziel.
I’m not necessarily in the doomsday camp, but I do think the bar was set so high last season that a team-wide SEC sophomore slump would be natural. Then again, when I ran that past a peer, he said, “OK, but who are they going to lose to?”
He’s right. Even if the Aggies drop big games to Alabama and LSU, it’s tough envisioning additional losses. Maybe Ole Miss? Maybe Auburn?
Still, sixth in the country appears to be a little generous. A couple of coaches I recently spoke with were not high on the Aggies' defensive personnel a year ago, and that was with standouts Damontre Moore and Sean Porter, who are no longer on the team.
“[Mark] Snyder is going to earn his paycheck,” one coach told me, referring to A&M's defensive coordinator.
Ranked: No. 19
This ranking feels as if coaches are robotically expecting the Broncos to check in where they normally do, toward the tail end of the Top 25. My complaint isn’t with Boise so much as it is about the more qualified teams that were left out. You’ll see a couple of them -- Miami and Arizona State -- below among the underrateds, but there are others such as Baylor, Kansas State and Michigan State that I would have ranked ahead of the Broncos. That doesn’t include Nos. 20-25, most of which would be favored versus Boise on a neutral field.
And if Boise State is 19th, that means some coaches had it ranked even higher.
As far as the Broncos themselves, the talent level still does not seem close to where it was in the 2011 season; six players from that team were taken in the 2012 NFL draft. That’s particularly the case on defense, where about half of the starters will be new faces.
Look, they’ll still win a bunch of games -- because that’s what coach Chris Petersen does -- but No. 19 feels a bit inflated. Even the season-opening marquee wins -- Virginia Tech in 2010, Georgia in 2011 -- seem to have declined in concert with the talent level (the Broncos lost in Week 1 last season to Michigan State). What would beating Washington, in what would be two games in a row (after winning last season's bowl matchup), really do for program visibility? That road trip to play the Huskies, along with ones against Fresno State and BYU, could cause Boise trouble.
Underrated
Ranked: No. 15
An Austin, Texas, columnist tweeted Thursday that he had never seen coach Mack Brown as relaxed and energized as he is these days. But he quickly followed up by saying he doesn’t exactly know what that means for the season ahead.
I responded to him by saying I never know what to make of talent-rich-but-let-you-down Texas. He said he could envision anything from a 7-5 season to an 11-2 year. Good. So it isn’t just me.
But we’ll tentatively place the Longhorns in this underrated category for two reasons: that ridiculous talent level, better than most programs in the country, and the lack of a clear-cut favorite in the Big 12.
The offense was the culprit two seasons ago, when it averaged 5.4 yards per play (70th in FBS).
The injury-riddled defense was the issue a year ago, when it allowed 5.9 yards per play (84th in FBS).
The offense returns primarily intact and the defensive injuries that derailed the 2012 season, chiefly to end Jackson Jeffcoat and linebacker Jordan Hicks, have healed.
If both units can even approach their optimal results from the past two seasons, there’s no reason why the Longhorns shouldn’t be in the mix to earn double-digit wins (for the first time since playing for the national title in 2009, by the way). That would constitute a much higher finish in the polls than middle of the pack. Vegas believes the Longhorns are 2-1 to win the Big 12, and 25-1 bets to win the BCS title, according to Bovada.
Ranked: NR
The self-imposed postseason ban is perhaps why the Hurricanes are flying under the coaches’ preseason radar, but the perception could change quickly -- as fast as Week 2, if they score a home upset of Florida.
Here’s why a rise in the polls could happen: Miami returns as many players as any team in the country. That includes an unheard-of 21 players back on the defensive two-deep. Granted, that’s a defense that was 97th in yards per play allowed, but coach Al Golden reminded me last week that about 15 freshmen played in 2012. So the experience level is up, and if those incumbents are not working out, then talented newcomers will take their place.
Offensively, Golden said sitting out the ACC title game was particularly painful because Stephen Morris was playing as well as any quarterback in America. He didn’t throw an interception in November, while he threw 11 touchdowns.
“We think we gave up a chance to play in the Orange Bowl,” said Golden, who believes Miami could go most (if not all) of the season before getting the final verdict in the NCAA infractions investigation of the Hurricanes. “That was a pretty big sanction.”
Vegas likes the Canes quite a bit. Bovada has them as a 33-1 shot to win the national championship. That’s the same number linked to ranked teams Oklahoma State (14th), Michigan (17th), USC (24th) and well ahead of 50-1 teams such as Notre Dame (11th), Oklahoma (16th), Nebraska (18th) and UCLA (21st). Miami deserved a spot in the poll.
Ranked: NR
Not ranking Arizona State might have been a bigger mistake than not ranking Miami. The coaches must have missed the end of Todd Graham’s first year in which the Sun Devils blistered Washington State, upset rival Arizona on the road and put up 62 points on Navy in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl. Marion Griceran for 159 yards and two scores in that game, and Graham told me last week that Grice could become a legitimate off-the-radar Heisman candidate.
Defensively, tackle Will Sutton came back for his fifth season, and junior college transfer defensive end Marcus Hardison, along with opposite end Carl Bradford (11.5 sacks in 2012), make up quite possibly the top D-line in the Pac-12.
That stout front should help a defense that was very good overall -- 19th in yards-per-play allowed, at 4.78 -- but not so sharp against the run (4.25 yards per rush, 65th).
The difficulty of the schedule could keep the Sun Devils shuffling up and down the polls, but there are also big non-conference opportunities such as Wisconsin and Notre Dame. A lot of coaches I’ve talked to said they wouldn’t blink if Arizona State represented the South in the Pac-12 title game.
Projecting top 10 SGs for 2013-14
That was fun. Nothing stirs the pot in the sports world more than rankings. On Monday, we began our projected rankings of NBA players by position with point guards, and today we continue with shooting guards. One thing I learned from the series' first installment: Tony Parker has lots of fans on both sides of the Atlantic. Yesterday, that was me running down Lake Shore Drive with an angry, multinational mob of basketball fans in pursuit with torches and pitchforks.
The Mayans, Nostradamus and Edgar Cayce would all agree that projecting the future is an inexact science, even if science is the basis of your forecast. However, one precept that is undeniable is that things change in the sports world, and they change fast. Age, athleticism, skill and luck, these are not static concepts. To illustrate that, let's look at something very simple -- the top 10 shooting guards from the past two seasons in scoring average, among those who qualified in the respective seasons.
Top SGs from 2011-12 and 2012-13
No.Player 2011-12PPGNo.Player 2012-13PPG
1Kobe Bryant27.91Kobe Bryant27.3
2Monta Ellis20.42James Harden25.9
3Joe Johnson18.83Dwyane Wade21.2
4James Harden16.84Monta Ellis19.2
5DeMar DeRozan16.75DeMar DeRozan18.1
6Tyreke Evans16.56J.R. Smith18.1
7Arron Afflalo15.27Klay Thompson16.6
8Jason Terry15.18Jamal Crawford16.5
9Louis Williams14.99Joe Johnson16.3
10Jordan Crawford14.710O.J. Mayo15.3
The lists are completely different. Only five players appear on both lists, and only Bryant was within a point of repeating his scoring average. Things change. Wade missed 17 games in 2011-12 and didn't qualify. Harden changed teams and took a giant leap forward. Thompson improved upon a solid rookie season. The moral is that the NBA you saw last season, the one that ended less than six weeks ago, no longer exists. Each year, a new league is born, and it's a mistake to believe that the hierarchies that emerged before are going to remain unchanged.
As the depth charts have filled, so have the forecasts generated by ATH coalesced. ATH, you may recall, is the projection module of NBAPET, my system of integrated spreadsheets for tracking, evaluating and forecasting all things NBA.
Here are the projected top 10 shooting guards for the 2013-14 NBA season followed by the next five and an overview of how some notable SGs fell outside the top 10. Keep in mind that assigning a primary position to a player in today's NBA is often more art than science. Players are ranked according to ATH's forecasted WARP, or wins above replacement level, which accounts for a player's efficiency, volume of production and team context.
1. Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 11.8
Wade is entering a perilous time of life for 2-guards, but the trends in his game are so stable, ATH is predicting an exact repeat of his .658 winning percentage from last season. His knee problems could undermine his value in a couple of ways. His block rate dropped last year and might be a sign of defensive slippage. Also, he may not play as much, and I've been watching for an Eric Spoelstra quote saying as much.
2. James Harden, Houston Rockets
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 11.7
The winner of the most improved player award is often just the guy who got the opportunity he always deserved. Harden finished seventh in that voting last season, so there wasn't as much recognition for how good he was in Oklahoma City as there should have been. The biggest uptick in his game was the fact that he played nearly 1,000 more minutes than he ever had before. This season, I wouldn't expect that playing time to dip, and while a high-volume perimeter player would be hard-pressed to be more efficient than Harden already is, it will be fascinating to see if Dwight Howard's presence propels him to the front of the MVP race.
3. Manu Ginobili, San Antonio Spurs
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 8.0
While ATH sees Tony Parker taking a slight, age-related step back in 2013-14, the older Ginobili has long since passed and, in effect, beaten the aging curve. Playing time has been the major concession in Ginobili's game, and it's the only reason that he doesn't project to challenge Wade and Harden for the title of the NBA's best 2-guard. Ginobili's winning percentage did dip a little last year, and at age 36, there's no guarantee he'll recover the lost efficiency. However, part of it was due to 3-point shooting and if you look at his career, it's been an every-other-year proposition for Ginobili in that category. If the pattern holds, this will be one of the "up" years.
4. Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles Lakers
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 7.0
Bryant should change his uniform number to a question mark, because that's how much confidence I have in this projection. When will he return? How much, if anything, will he have lost from his game? Nobody, not even Kobe, knows the answer to these questions. What I do know is that last year, amid the rubble of the Lakers' lost season, he was as good as ever before wearing down towards the end of the campaign. 17-year veterans should not be hitting the 3,000-minute plateau.
5. Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 6.1
I love it when the youngbloods crack these lists, and ATH loves Beal. I'm not thrilled the system is forecasting Beal to knock down 43 percent of his 3s, even though that's a strength in his game. That category is the most variable on a player's stat line, and I distrust such bold predictions. However consider this: The only teenager to ever shoot a higher percentage from deep with an above-average usage rate was Kyrie Irving. Beal is off to a great start.
6. Louis Williams, Atlanta Hawks
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 6.1
Williams is tough to classify in terms of position, but I think it's safe to say his game is more of a 2-guard than a 1. When healthy, Sweet Lou is one of the most efficient scorers in the league, with a terrific complement of volume, foul-drawing, playmaking and a solid, but not spectacular, deep stroke. He's also coming off a major knee injury, and you have to be concerned that the quickness and explosion Williams has relied upon will be diminished. For what it's worth, I saw him walking around my hotel in Las Vegas and he looked fine. Unfortunately, it wasn't on a basketball court.
7. J.R. Smith, New York Knicks
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 5.4
Smith is yet another player who enters the 2013-14 season with an injury cloud hanging over his head. When healthy, he's one of the most explosive bench scorers around, though his streakiness means sometimes his impact affects the wrong team. Nevertheless, on a Knicks squad strapped for shot creators, he's in a perfect situation for his skill set. Smith, believe it or not, decreased the frequency of 3-point shots taken in relation to possessions used last season, which undermined his winning percentage. However, Knicks fans will take whatever regular-season performance they can get if he can only translate it to the postseason. As a Knick, Smith has shot 32.6 percent from the field in 16 postseason games.
8. Danny Green, San Antonio Spurs
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 5.2
The top shooting guards are the guys who have the ball in their hands a lot and make plays for others as well as themselves. Green, though, is a perfect example of how you can still offer premium value by being uber-efficient and being a threat without the ball. As we saw in the latter part of the Finals, there is a ceiling to how much offense Green can create for himself, but teams have to account for him at all times. It doesn't hurt that he plays big minutes on one of the NBA's elite defensive teams.
9. Monta Ellis, Dallas Mavericks
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 4.8
Did you know that in his third NBA season, Ellis put up a .580 true shooting percentage while playing 3,073 minutes? Last season, he played 3,076 minutes, and his TS percentage was .493. If Rick Carlisle can somehow extract Ellis' youthful efficiency, the Mavericks will really have something.
10. Kevin Martin, Minnesota Timberwolves
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 4.7
Martin's value has always been enhanced by his ability to attack the lane off of close-outs and get to the line. Now that he's entering his age-31 season, you do have to worry that that skill is diminishing, as his foul-drawing rate has been way down the past two years. Minnesota signed Martin for his floor-spacing ability, and he's solid at that, if a bit up-and-down. It'll be essential that he stick to the role he's given, playing off Kevin Love and Ricky Rubio.
Next five: Vince Carter, Wesley Matthews, Tyreke Evans, Marcus Thornton, Eric Gordon
Like Smith, many of the more prolific 2-guards in the league are used in instant-offense bench roles. Three of our next five will fit that bill this season, perhaps more if Matthews is beaten out by C.J. McCollum in Portland. Carter was one of the league's top bench players for Dallas last season and, as old as he is, his athletic indicators are remarkably strong for a player with that much mileage. Matthews and Thornton are fairly steady in their production. Evans, on the other hand, is a wild card as he's never been used in a sixth-man role. Gordon is coming off a major injury, which makes his playing time forecast murky. More than that, his incessant physical woes have stunted his development arc, and Gordon could use a big season to improve his baseline as he nears his prime seasons.
Also notable:Klay Thompson, Joe Johnson, DeMar DeRozan
These are the torch-and-pitchfork guys, the ones many are going to howl about because of their omission above. Thompson is the one guy that, subjectively speaking, I think will take a big leap in value. So far though, Thompson's stat line does not elevate him beyond the status of role player. He's great in his role, with a high volume of extremely efficient 3-point shooting, and there's not a team in the league that wouldn't want to have him. However, he hasn't done much inside the arc during his career and needs to become more a threat off the dribble. Not only will that get him to the line more often, but he'll become a better playmaker as well. That will enhance his value. Of course, team context matters, too, and with Stephen Curry and Andre Iguodala around, the Warriors might not need Thompson to do more than he does.
We've long warned about the perils of age 32 when it comes to shooting guards, and Johnson hit that age just after the Finals ended. His value dropped like a stone last season, with a winning percentage that dipped from .564 to .443. With so many alpha-personality players to share possessions with in Brooklyn's new lineup, Johnson has entered the role-player phase of his decline. As for DeRozan, I've written it many times: Until he proves otherwise, he's just an empty scoring average.
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 4.8
Did you know that in his third NBA season, Ellis put up a .580 true shooting percentage while playing 3,073 minutes? Last season, he played 3,076 minutes, and his TS percentage was .493. If Rick Carlisle can somehow extract Ellis' youthful efficiency, the Mavericks will really have something.
10. Kevin Martin, Minnesota Timberwolves
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 4.7
Martin's value has always been enhanced by his ability to attack the lane off of close-outs and get to the line. Now that he's entering his age-31 season, you do have to worry that that skill is diminishing, as his foul-drawing rate has been way down the past two years. Minnesota signed Martin for his floor-spacing ability, and he's solid at that, if a bit up-and-down. It'll be essential that he stick to the role he's given, playing off Kevin Love and Ricky Rubio.
Next five: Vince Carter, Wesley Matthews, Tyreke Evans, Marcus Thornton, Eric Gordon
Like Smith, many of the more prolific 2-guards in the league are used in instant-offense bench roles. Three of our next five will fit that bill this season, perhaps more if Matthews is beaten out by C.J. McCollum in Portland. Carter was one of the league's top bench players for Dallas last season and, as old as he is, his athletic indicators are remarkably strong for a player with that much mileage. Matthews and Thornton are fairly steady in their production. Evans, on the other hand, is a wild card as he's never been used in a sixth-man role. Gordon is coming off a major injury, which makes his playing time forecast murky. More than that, his incessant physical woes have stunted his development arc, and Gordon could use a big season to improve his baseline as he nears his prime seasons.
Also notable:Klay Thompson, Joe Johnson, DeMar DeRozan
These are the torch-and-pitchfork guys, the ones many are going to howl about because of their omission above. Thompson is the one guy that, subjectively speaking, I think will take a big leap in value. So far though, Thompson's stat line does not elevate him beyond the status of role player. He's great in his role, with a high volume of extremely efficient 3-point shooting, and there's not a team in the league that wouldn't want to have him. However, he hasn't done much inside the arc during his career and needs to become more a threat off the dribble. Not only will that get him to the line more often, but he'll become a better playmaker as well. That will enhance his value. Of course, team context matters, too, and with Stephen Curry and Andre Iguodala around, the Warriors might not need Thompson to do more than he does.
We've long warned about the perils of age 32 when it comes to shooting guards, and Johnson hit that age just after the Finals ended. His value dropped like a stone last season, with a winning percentage that dipped from .564 to .443. With so many alpha-personality players to share possessions with in Brooklyn's new lineup, Johnson has entered the role-player phase of his decline. As for DeRozan, I've written it many times: Until he proves otherwise, he's just an empty scoring average.
Projecting top 10 PGs for 2013-14
As we enter the dog days of the summer -- always a calm time in the NBA -- there are a few notable free agents still out there (Greg Oden, Mo Williams and DeJuan Blair come to mind). For the most part, though, we've got a pretty firm idea what the rosters are going to look like when the 2013-14 season tips off on Oct. 29. As the depth charts have filled, so have the forecasts generated by ATH coalesced. ATH is the projection module of NBAPET, my system of integrated spreadsheets for tracking, evaluating and forecasting all things NBA.
With the pieces falling into place, let's take an early stab at ranking players by position, beginning today with point guards. (Although keep in mind that assigning a primary position to a player in today's NBA is often more art than science.) Over the next two weeks, we'll rank players by position according to ATH's forecasted WARP, or wins above replacement level. WARP is perfect for this kind of exercise because it accounts for a player's efficiency, volume of production and team context.
Here are the projected top 10 point guards for the 2013-14 NBA season followed by the next five and an overview of how some notable PGs fell outside the top 10.
1. Chris Paul, Los Angeles Clippers
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 15.9
This might be the Year of Chris Paul, if the Miami Heat falter a bit in the regular season or MVP voters grow tired of rubber-stamping LeBron James' name at the top of their ballots. With the Clippers poised to build upon last year's breakout season and challenge for the top seed in the West, it could come down to a Paul versus Kevin Durant battle for the coveted Maurice Podoloff Trophy. Paul has finished in the top five of the voting four times and as high as second. Although ATH sees a near replica of Paul's 2012-13 WARP, it's still a figure that will garner lots of MVP chatter.
And why wouldn't ATH see Paul churning out the same season? At 29, he's squarely in his prime and his individual winning percentages the past two seasons (.740 and .739) nicely illustrate just how consistent he is. Paul doesn't use as many possessions as he did in his top seasons in New Orleans, but every other facet of his game has remained intact. Last season, Paul shot a career-low 32.8 percent from 3-point range, although he offset that by doing more damage inside the arc. He has shot as high as 40.9 percent from deep in his career, and, if he has a fluky good-shooting campaign, it could put him over a .600 true shooting percentage for the first time in his career. In fact, ATH sees a regression in the 3-point rate, bringing Paul up to a .600 TS% on the nose. With so many weapons around him -- Blake Griffin, Jamal Crawford, Jared Dudley, J.J. Redikk, Matt Barnes, Reggie Bullock -- it will be up to Paul to orchestrate the most high-powered offensive attack he's been a part of to date.
2. Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 11.7
By the time the MVP voting results were released during the playoffs, Westbrook had been knocked out by a knee injury, and, unfortunately, that's probably what we will remember most from his 2012-13 season. Overlooked at the time was the fact that Westbrook finished ninth in the voting despite ranking third in WARP. Although Westbrook's value to the Thunder was apparently overlooked when the ballots were completed, it was abundantly clear when he was absent in the postseason. ATH isn't forecasting a decline for Westbrook this season as much as a regression, and the distinction is important. Regression, in a statistical context, simply means moving toward average. It can be a positive or negative effect, yet many people take the term as a pejorative.
Westbrook took a huge leap last season, and, like Derrick Rose in 2011-12, he's likely to come back to earth just a little bit. ATH sees Westbrook maintaining his roughly 33 percent usage rate of the past two seasons. Given some possible shortages on the Oklahoma City bench, it could climb even higher depending on how many of his minutes come with Kevin Durant off the floor. If so, Westbrook's tepid efficiency could slide into the danger area.
3. Kyrie Irving, Cleveland Cavaliers
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 11.4
On a per-possession basis, ATH sees Irving bypassing Westbrook as the second-best point guard in the NBA. In general, NBA players experience the most growth in their early 20s, and Irving will be barely 22 by the time the 2013-14 postseason rolls around. His revamped Cavaliers might well be a part of the proceedings. ATH sees a growth in Irving's efficiency inside and outside the arc, resulting in a soaring true shooting percentage of .574. That's all while using the same portion of Cleveland's offense as the other young Cavaliers grow around him. The three-win leap in WARP is doable, but it certainly would help if Irving can make it through a season healthy. After two seasons, his career high in games played is just 59.
4. Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 10.7
Curry jumped from 4.7 WARP to 15.8 last season, but of course his health was the driving force in that quantum leap. Curry's winning percentage the past two seasons has been virtually identical: .665 and .669. He'll turn 26 this year, so chances are he has established his level of play, giving him a lower ceiling than someone like Irving. However, that level of play is still really impressive. You can set your watch by Curry's 3-point shooting, but last year he actually shot worse inside the arc than outside it. ATH sees a regression in the right direction in that regard, but a concurrent one in the wrong direction in Curry's turnover rate. If Curry can continue his improvement in ball protection, his bottom-line value will rival that of the non-Paul class of point guards.
5. Deron Williams, Brooklyn Nets
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 9.9
With the change in talent around him, Williams will be one of the most intriguing players to watch in the coming season. In his best years in Utah, Williams was an assist machine, but, as a Net, he initially took on a heavy scoring load and his efficiency dropped off the map. Last season, with Brooklyn's roster improved, Williams' usage rate returned to previous levels, and his shooting percentages recovered accordingly. However, his assist rate was his lowest since his rookie season. Williams' turnovers also were down, so he simply had the ball less. With so much talent and so many alpha personalities on the new Nets, Williams can either be more of a cog in the machine or he can become its operator. Given the on-court proclivities of his new coach, Jason Kidd, I'm going to guess it's going to be the latter. If Williams can return to his days of double-digit assists, it will be a sign the new mix in Brooklyn is working.
6. Mike Conley, Memphis Grizzlies
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 8.5
ATH sees Conley's 2012-13 season as a career campaign, but he's not likely to regress much. The biggest uptick in his game last year was shot selection, with a 5 percent increase in the portion of his possessions that ended with a 3-point attempt. That kind of wisdom, once gained, is not easily lost.
7. Derrick Rose, Chicago Bulls
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 8.3
Forecasting games played always is tough, and the formula for doing so leaves Rose with just 61 games in his projection. That's what happens when a guy misses 109 regular-season games over two seasons. His winning percentage is tabbed at .607, down from the .679 he put up in his MVP season of 2010-11. ATH, like the rest of us, believes Rose has plenty to prove in the coming season.
8. Kyle Lowry, Toronto Raptors
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 8.1
Lowry has put up right around 8.0 WARP in each of the past three seasons. He's in his prime and remains underrated. Could some younger guards behind Lowry climb over him on the value ladder? Sure. There are a number of point guards with higher ceilings, but few who have demonstrated such a consistent level of play.
9. Ty Lawson, Denver Nuggets
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 8.1
Lawson is a classic example of the usage/efficiency nexus. His usage rate has increased in every season of his career, and his true shooting percentage has declined. Just as important, though, his assist rate has steadily climbed even as his turnover rate has dropped. This season, ATH sees all those various elements coming together as Lawson steps into his prime.
10. Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 7.8
There is a school of thought that Lillard entered the NBA fully formed and that, as outstanding as he was in his rookie of the year campaign, Lillard is as good now as he's ever going to be. This is the season we begin to find out whether that's true. ATH projects that Lillard will take a significant step forward, with progress in shot selection and especially on the defensive end.
The next five: Kemba Walker, John Wall, Tony Parker, Jose Calderon, Ricky Rubio.
It's a point guard league right now, so there are some big names that slip outside the top 10. Rubio, who ranks 15th at 6.5 WARP, would rate as the No. 6 shooting guard, for example. So these are actually solid ratings for the up-and-coming Walker and Wall, even though they are both dinged for a combination of high usage rates and low shooting percentages.
Parker's standing represents a slip, but he'll turn 32 during the playoffs next season. That's a rough age for a guard historically speaking, and Parker's forecast sees a regression to what he was before his spike the past two seasons. He's still at 7.1 WARP, which put him in the top 10 of every other position except power forward.
Also: Rajon Rondo's existing injury limits his forecast to 48 games and a 4.7 WARP. It's an uncertain process with guys coming off serious injuries, but the one-year anniversary of his knee surgery isn't until Feb. 12. With a full projection of games played, Rondo's winning percentage would have landed him between Lawson and Lillard in the rankings.
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 8.3
Forecasting games played always is tough, and the formula for doing so leaves Rose with just 61 games in his projection. That's what happens when a guy misses 109 regular-season games over two seasons. His winning percentage is tabbed at .607, down from the .679 he put up in his MVP season of 2010-11. ATH, like the rest of us, believes Rose has plenty to prove in the coming season.
8. Kyle Lowry, Toronto Raptors
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 8.1
Lowry has put up right around 8.0 WARP in each of the past three seasons. He's in his prime and remains underrated. Could some younger guards behind Lowry climb over him on the value ladder? Sure. There are a number of point guards with higher ceilings, but few who have demonstrated such a consistent level of play.
9. Ty Lawson, Denver Nuggets
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 8.1
Lawson is a classic example of the usage/efficiency nexus. His usage rate has increased in every season of his career, and his true shooting percentage has declined. Just as important, though, his assist rate has steadily climbed even as his turnover rate has dropped. This season, ATH sees all those various elements coming together as Lawson steps into his prime.
10. Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 7.8
There is a school of thought that Lillard entered the NBA fully formed and that, as outstanding as he was in his rookie of the year campaign, Lillard is as good now as he's ever going to be. This is the season we begin to find out whether that's true. ATH projects that Lillard will take a significant step forward, with progress in shot selection and especially on the defensive end.
The next five: Kemba Walker, John Wall, Tony Parker, Jose Calderon, Ricky Rubio.
It's a point guard league right now, so there are some big names that slip outside the top 10. Rubio, who ranks 15th at 6.5 WARP, would rate as the No. 6 shooting guard, for example. So these are actually solid ratings for the up-and-coming Walker and Wall, even though they are both dinged for a combination of high usage rates and low shooting percentages.
Parker's standing represents a slip, but he'll turn 32 during the playoffs next season. That's a rough age for a guard historically speaking, and Parker's forecast sees a regression to what he was before his spike the past two seasons. He's still at 7.1 WARP, which put him in the top 10 of every other position except power forward.
Also: Rajon Rondo's existing injury limits his forecast to 48 games and a 4.7 WARP. It's an uncertain process with guys coming off serious injuries, but the one-year anniversary of his knee surgery isn't until Feb. 12. With a full projection of games played, Rondo's winning percentage would have landed him between Lawson and Lillard in the rankings.
Projecting top 10 SFs for 2013-14
What is the NBA's most loaded position? In the opener of our positional ranking series, I noted that this is a point guard-dominated league these days, and that's certainly true. However, part of that uptick in value for the position is due to a couple of evolutionary factors. When the NBA cracked down on hand-checking and banished other restraints on defensive scheming, the game opened up. Small guards who used to be muscled around can now cross defenders over at will, and with offenses trending toward spacing the floor, there is plenty of room for these ultra-quick players to operate. Pick-and-rolls became the default offensive set, and fast, dribble-penetrating guards became a must for every team's roster.
Scoring has become as important as playmaking for many of these guards, and the distinction between the backcourt positions has blurred. Pure playmakers like Steve Nash and Ricky Rubio are now the exception, rather than the rule. Some teams -- Cleveland is a perfect example, with Kyrie Irving and Dion Waiters -- start a pair of combo guards who in many respects are interchangeable.
Nevertheless, as we unveil our rankings of forwards this week, you can't help but notice that the top two players at this position (LeBron James and Kevin Durant) are -- and have been -- the top overall players in the league the past few years. So while there are seemingly more high-value point guards than any other position, does that group really offer the most overall composite value?
Composite value for 2013-14
PositionWARP
Point guard254
Power forward242
Center178
Small forward138
Shooting guard135
The answer is yes, but it's close. And I remind you again about the caveat in assigning a primary position to a player in today's NBA is often more art than science. Positional usage is something I track, and in most cases, I've assigned each player the position he played most often last season. Thus James andCarmelo Anthony won't show up until the power forward rankings.
On the other hand, Andre Iguodala, who was primarily a 2 in Denver, is included with the 3s because that's his likely spot now that he's in Golden State. All of this blurs the real value between positions. However, it seems clear that wings are asked to do less than the other spots.
Here's the series primer: As NBA depth charts have filled, so have the forecasts generated by ATH coalesced. ATH, you may recall, is the projection module of NBAPET, my system of integrated spreadsheets for tracking, evaluating and forecasting all things NBA. Players are ranked according to ATH's forecasted WARP, or wins above replacement level, which accounts for a player's efficiency, volume of production and team context.
1. Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 18.3
Durant has to stop getting better, right? Last season, he soared to 22.4 WARP, and his projection for this season is merely a statistical model seeing some regression to the mean. Seasons in which a player combines a usage rate of at least 30 percent with a true shooting percentage of .600 or better are historically rare. Durant has made it a matter of routine, and ATH is forecasting another such a season. He also improved his assist rate for the second straight season, a gain ATH sees Durant mostly retaining.
2. Paul Pierce, Brooklyn Nets
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 8.6
Pierce is entering a contract year, and at 36 years old, he may not have many more of those. He's aged remarkably well, though you can see in the projections of Durant and Pierce the gap in value between a borderline All-Star and an MVP candidate. Pierce has hit double digits in WARP in each of the past three seasons, but it remains to be seen how he'll fit into the new hierarchy in Brooklyn. ATH sees Pierce retaining his efficiency and more, with an uptick in true shooting percentage from .559 to .592. However, the system sees a 4.4 percent drop in usage rate as he'll have less to do in the stacked Nets lineup.
3. Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio Spurs
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 8.0
People are still irritated at ATH's projection for Tony Parker, but Spurs fans shouldn't worry because Leonard is there to pick up the slack. One of the league's rising stars, the system sees Leonard reaching All-Star level production in 2013-14 with a winning percentage creeping over the .600 mark. Most of that is efficiency and defense, with a forecasted 3-point success rate of 40.5 percent. His usage rate is projected to remain mostly stagnant, but if he edges it close to the league average, look out.
4. Andre Iguodala, Golden State Warriors
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 7.9
Iguodala's efficiency dropped last season, which was a surprise considering his supposed fit in George Karl's system. His turnover rate jumped by more than 3 percent, and his 3-point shooting slipped from .394 to .317. Also, perhaps because he played more 2 than 3, his defensive rating fell off a little as well. ATH sees Iguodala bouncing back this season as a Warrior, though not quite to the level of his best seasons in Philadelphia. He turns 30 in January and another a drop in rebounding and his ability to draw fouls would be evidence that Iggy is losing a shade of his elite athleticism.
5. Nicolas Batum, Portland Trail Blazers
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 7.8
Batum's steady improvement hit a plateau in his fifth NBA season, and his 2.2 percent loss in usage rate suggests that playing alongside Damian Lillard may have actually impacted his game in a negative fashion. For Portland to get back into the playoff hunt this season, Batum needs to be a stronger No. 3 to the core duo of Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge. Right now, Batum is perimeter-oriented, but his 3-point success rate was just around league average last season. He's been around 40 percent a couple of times, and if he can get back to that, then perhaps he can make more plays off the dribble and get to the foul line more often.
6. Danny Granger, Indiana Pacers
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 7.4
We don't know yet if Granger's knee trouble is chronic, and ATH sees him recovering much of his pre-injury value. I'm skeptical. Even without the injuries, Granger is getting on in years as he will hit 31 near the end of the season. He's also likely to be Indiana's fourth option now with Paul George's emergence. If he can embrace that role with heretofore unseen efficiency, then he can help keep the Pacers in the title hunt.
7. Paul George, Indiana Pacers
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 6.8
Speaking of George, his playoff breakout isn't represented here, and subjectively, I do see that performance as a coming-of-age rather than a fluke. So while I can't get ATH to replicate the effect, I think George will soar near the top of these rankings and will supplant Granger in the former Indiana offensive hierarchy.
8. Andrei Kirilenko, Brooklyn Nets
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 5.2
Between Pierce and Kirilenko, the Nets have the best combination at small forward of any team in the league, and the duo should be a good fit to play together in different lineup configurations. Like Pierce, Kirilenko is projected to give up some of his possessions, but his true shooting percentage is forecast to surpass .600 for the first time in five years. He turns 33 this season, but all of his athletic indicators remain strong.
9. Kyle Korver, Atlanta Hawks
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 5.2
The last three ranked players on the small forward list represent what the position has become for so many teams: A floor-spacing position filled by guys who shoot a high percentage from the corner. Korver is the prototype, and while he's certainly not an elite individual defender, he doesn't kill you in the team concept. The Hawks didn't get much out of Korver's fine passing skills last season, but with a new roster, maybe that facet of his game will bounce back.
10. Chandler Parsons, Houston Rockets
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 4.8
If there was a way to subjectively tweak WARP to give Parsons extra credit for his role in recruiting Dwight Howard to Houston, he'd rank higher. As it is, I think ATH is underrating Parsons, both for what he's done and what he should be able to do playing off Howard and James Harden. The system sees a little regression in his 3-point percentage and, thus, his true shooting percentage, but I wouldn't be surprised to see those figures continue on an upwards arc.
Next five:
t-10. Matt Barnes/Jared Dudley
11. Carlos Delfino
12. Gordon Hayward
13. Luol Deng
14. Rudy Gay
I paired Barnes and Dudley because they play the same position for the same team and have the same projected WARP. Needless to say, the Clippers are in good shape at the 3, with two high-efficiency players who represent two of the better bargains in the league.
The comer in this group is Hayward, who should get more of a featured role in what promises to be a very young Jazz lineup. He was one of the standouts in the Team USA summer workouts in Las Vegas and may be ready for his close-up, so to speak. If he can sharpen his 3-point stroke to the 40-percent range, then his ability to make plays inside the arc will be enhanced. With rookie Trey Burke taking over at point guard, Hayward may also take on more of a playmaking role.
ATH sees Deng falling hard in a contract year, and he does have a lot of mileage on his body for a player who doesn't turn 29 until near the end of the season. That said, Derrick Rose's absence affected Deng's offensive efficiency in a big way, and the return of the star point guard may help Deng sidestep any loss in production. As for Gay, ATH and WARP aren't fond of high-volume, low-efficiency types, and a little shot selection would go a long way toward getting Gay into the top 10.
Also notable: Gerald Wallace, Danilo Gallinari, Jeff Green, Harrison Barnes.
Going from Wallace to a Pierce-Kirilenko combo at the 3 is about as strong of a positional upgrade a team can make during an offseason. Gallinari's return from a knee injury is uncertain and undermines his projection. With a healthy forecast, he'd rank somewhere around fifth. Green looked great toward the end of last season, but he'll have to prove himself over a full campaign to improve his baseline.
Barnes' replacement-level forecast is an improvement on a rookie year that showed promise, but still doesn't reflect how well he played in the postseason. Those postseason breakouts can be misleading, though, and Barnes now has to adjust to coming off the bench.
9. Kyle Korver, Atlanta Hawks
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 5.2
The last three ranked players on the small forward list represent what the position has become for so many teams: A floor-spacing position filled by guys who shoot a high percentage from the corner. Korver is the prototype, and while he's certainly not an elite individual defender, he doesn't kill you in the team concept. The Hawks didn't get much out of Korver's fine passing skills last season, but with a new roster, maybe that facet of his game will bounce back.
10. Chandler Parsons, Houston Rockets
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 4.8
If there was a way to subjectively tweak WARP to give Parsons extra credit for his role in recruiting Dwight Howard to Houston, he'd rank higher. As it is, I think ATH is underrating Parsons, both for what he's done and what he should be able to do playing off Howard and James Harden. The system sees a little regression in his 3-point percentage and, thus, his true shooting percentage, but I wouldn't be surprised to see those figures continue on an upwards arc.
9. Kyle Korver, Atlanta Hawks
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 5.2
The last three ranked players on the small forward list represent what the position has become for so many teams: A floor-spacing position filled by guys who shoot a high percentage from the corner. Korver is the prototype, and while he's certainly not an elite individual defender, he doesn't kill you in the team concept. The Hawks didn't get much out of Korver's fine passing skills last season, but with a new roster, maybe that facet of his game will bounce back.
10. Chandler Parsons, Houston Rockets
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 4.8
If there was a way to subjectively tweak WARP to give Parsons extra credit for his role in recruiting Dwight Howard to Houston, he'd rank higher. As it is, I think ATH is underrating Parsons, both for what he's done and what he should be able to do playing off Howard and James Harden. The system sees a little regression in his 3-point percentage and, thus, his true shooting percentage, but I wouldn't be surprised to see those figures continue on an upwards arc.
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 5.2
The last three ranked players on the small forward list represent what the position has become for so many teams: A floor-spacing position filled by guys who shoot a high percentage from the corner. Korver is the prototype, and while he's certainly not an elite individual defender, he doesn't kill you in the team concept. The Hawks didn't get much out of Korver's fine passing skills last season, but with a new roster, maybe that facet of his game will bounce back.
10. Chandler Parsons, Houston Rockets
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 4.8
If there was a way to subjectively tweak WARP to give Parsons extra credit for his role in recruiting Dwight Howard to Houston, he'd rank higher. As it is, I think ATH is underrating Parsons, both for what he's done and what he should be able to do playing off Howard and James Harden. The system sees a little regression in his 3-point percentage and, thus, his true shooting percentage, but I wouldn't be surprised to see those figures continue on an upwards arc.
Next five:
t-10. Matt Barnes/Jared Dudley
11. Carlos Delfino
12. Gordon Hayward
13. Luol Deng
14. Rudy Gay
I paired Barnes and Dudley because they play the same position for the same team and have the same projected WARP. Needless to say, the Clippers are in good shape at the 3, with two high-efficiency players who represent two of the better bargains in the league.
The comer in this group is Hayward, who should get more of a featured role in what promises to be a very young Jazz lineup. He was one of the standouts in the Team USA summer workouts in Las Vegas and may be ready for his close-up, so to speak. If he can sharpen his 3-point stroke to the 40-percent range, then his ability to make plays inside the arc will be enhanced. With rookie Trey Burke taking over at point guard, Hayward may also take on more of a playmaking role.
ATH sees Deng falling hard in a contract year, and he does have a lot of mileage on his body for a player who doesn't turn 29 until near the end of the season. That said, Derrick Rose's absence affected Deng's offensive efficiency in a big way, and the return of the star point guard may help Deng sidestep any loss in production. As for Gay, ATH and WARP aren't fond of high-volume, low-efficiency types, and a little shot selection would go a long way toward getting Gay into the top 10.
Also notable: Gerald Wallace, Danilo Gallinari, Jeff Green, Harrison Barnes.
Going from Wallace to a Pierce-Kirilenko combo at the 3 is about as strong of a positional upgrade a team can make during an offseason. Gallinari's return from a knee injury is uncertain and undermines his projection. With a healthy forecast, he'd rank somewhere around fifth. Green looked great toward the end of last season, but he'll have to prove himself over a full campaign to improve his baseline.
Barnes' replacement-level forecast is an improvement on a rookie year that showed promise, but still doesn't reflect how well he played in the postseason. Those postseason breakouts can be misleading, though, and Barnes now has to adjust to coming off the bench.
9. Kyle Korver, Atlanta Hawks
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 5.2
The last three ranked players on the small forward list represent what the position has become for so many teams: A floor-spacing position filled by guys who shoot a high percentage from the corner. Korver is the prototype, and while he's certainly not an elite individual defender, he doesn't kill you in the team concept. The Hawks didn't get much out of Korver's fine passing skills last season, but with a new roster, maybe that facet of his game will bounce back.
10. Chandler Parsons, Houston Rockets
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 4.8
If there was a way to subjectively tweak WARP to give Parsons extra credit for his role in recruiting Dwight Howard to Houston, he'd rank higher. As it is, I think ATH is underrating Parsons, both for what he's done and what he should be able to do playing off Howard and James Harden. The system sees a little regression in his 3-point percentage and, thus, his true shooting percentage, but I wouldn't be surprised to see those figures continue on an upwards arc.
9. Kyle Korver, Atlanta Hawks
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 5.2
The last three ranked players on the small forward list represent what the position has become for so many teams: A floor-spacing position filled by guys who shoot a high percentage from the corner. Korver is the prototype, and while he's certainly not an elite individual defender, he doesn't kill you in the team concept. The Hawks didn't get much out of Korver's fine passing skills last season, but with a new roster, maybe that facet of his game will bounce back.
10. Chandler Parsons, Houston Rockets
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 4.8
If there was a way to subjectively tweak WARP to give Parsons extra credit for his role in recruiting Dwight Howard to Houston, he'd rank higher. As it is, I think ATH is underrating Parsons, both for what he's done and what he should be able to do playing off Howard and James Harden. The system sees a little regression in his 3-point percentage and, thus, his true shooting percentage, but I wouldn't be surprised to see those figures continue on an upwards arc.
Projections for every bowl game
My bowl projections do not always coincide with my projected conference standings, as bowl selection committees sometimes base their selections on ticket sales and TV ratings from more high-profile programs. They also try to avoid rematches from the regular season and teams making consecutive trips.
Taking those factors into account, here are my projected participants for every bowl game for the 2013 season. (Note: I'll start with the BCS bowls before getting to the non-BCS bowls.)
BCS bowls
Rose Bowl Game presented by Vizio (Big Ten champ vs. Pac-12 champ)
Jan. 1, 2014 -- Pasadena, Calif.
Projection: Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Oregon Ducks
The Cornhuskers have one of the most explosive offenses in the country, led by quarterback Taylor Martinez and seven other returning starters. The defense, despite its inexperience, will improve this season and the Huskers will win 10 regular-season games. While Nebraska will lose to Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game, the Rose will keep its preferred Big Ten versus Pac-12 match-up and select the Huskers to make just their third-ever appearance here.
Despite breaking in a new head coach in Mark Helfrich, the Ducks will win the Pac-12 North and beat USC in the league championship game on the strength of 15 returning starters, including quarterback Marcus Mariota. It will be their third Rose Bowl appearance since 2009.
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl (Big 12 champ vs. BCS at-large)
Jan. 1, 2014 -- Glendale, Ariz.
Projection: Texas Longhorns vs. USC Trojans
The Longhorns are the most experienced team in the country, with 19 returning starters, and will have one of the most improved defenses with end Jackson Jeffcoat and linebacker Jordan Hicks now healthy. The Longhorns will finish 11-1 and win the Big 12 tiebreaker over Oklahoma State thanks to a win over the Cowboys in Austin, Texas.
After being the biggest disappointment in the country last season, the Trojans are flying under the radar as they return 15 starters and are deeper at almost every position. They'll win at least 11 games in the regular season before dropping the Pac-12 title game to Oregon, and the Fiesta committee will then decide to pair them against Texas to set up a rematch of the classic 2005 BCS championship game.
Allstate Sugar Bowl (SEC champ vs. BCS at-large)
Jan. 2, 2014 -- New Orleans
Projection: Georgia Bulldogs vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
The Bulldogs have one of the best offenses in the country with nine returning starters, led by four-year starting quarterback Aaron Murray. The inexperienced defense will get better as the season progresses, and the Bulldogs will win the SEC East for the third straight season thanks to a key win over South Carolina in Week 2. With Alabama playing in the national championship game, the Sugar will take the SEC's second-best team.
The Fighting Irish are a deeper and stronger team than last season's edition despite the loss of quarterback Everett Golson and linebacker Manti Te'o. The schedule is brutal as always, as they play six potentially ranked teams, but they do get key games against Michigan State, Oklahoma and USC at home. The Irish will get to 10 wins and grab an at-large bid.
Discover Orange Bowl (ACC champ vs. BCS at-large)
Jan. 3, 2014 -- Miami
Projection: Florida State Seminoles vs. Louisville Cardinals
After last season's 12-win season concluded with an ACC championship and a win over Northern Illinois in the Orange Bowl, the Seminoles, led by breakout star quarterback Jameis Winston, will repeat as ACC champs thanks to an upset win at Clemson.
Louisville, also off a BCS bowl win last season, returns 16 starters, including quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. The Cardinals will win the American Athletic Conference in its inaugural season and finish the regular season 12-0, but, due to a soft schedule, won't receive much sympathy from pollsters or computers and instead will get placed here.
BCS National Championship presented by Vizio (BCS No. 1 vs. BCS No. 2)
Jan. 6, 2014 -- Pasadena, Calif.
Projection: Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
The two-time defending champion Crimson Tide are a near-consensus favorite to make their third straight national title game and are trying to become the first school in history to win four titles in five seasons. They return 13 starters, including elite playmakers at nearly every position and are even stronger than last season's championship team. They have two weeks to prepare for each of their two biggest games (Texas A&M and LSU) and will finish the regular season unbeaten for the first time since 2009 after again defeating Georgia in the SEC championship game.
The Buckeyes also have 13 returning starters, led by Heisman favorite Braxton Miller at quarterback, and also have a two-time national champion head coach in Urban Meyer. They are currently favored in all 12 of their games, and I'm predicting that, for the second consecutive season, they will run the table in the regular season. But this season, they'll get to play in the Big Ten championship game and defeat Nebraska, setting up the third-ever No. 1 versus No. 2 matchup between Nick Saban and Urban Meyer.
Non-BCS bowls
Gildan New Mexico Bowl (Mountain West vs. Pac-12)
Dec. 21, 2013 -- Albuquerque, N.M.
Projection: Utah State Aggies vs. Arizona Wildcats
The Aggies fail to match last season's 11-win total due to a coaching change and step up in competition but still make their third straight bowl for the first time in school history. Arizona, playing a softer schedule and returning 17 starters, makes its second straight bowl under Rich Rodriguez but again finishes fourth in the Pac-12 South.
Las Vegas Bowl (Mountain West vs. Pac-12)
Dec. 21, 2013 -- Las Vegas
Projection: Fresno State Bulldogs vs. UCLA Bruins
The Bulldogs return 15 starters this year, including quarterback Derek Carr, and get a key game against Boise State at home in the regular season. A win there allows them to host the inaugural Mountain West championship game, and they again beat the Broncos. UCLA, despite being more talented than last season, fails to top 2012's nine-win total thanks to a tough schedule.
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl (MAC vs. Mountain West)
Dec. 21, 2013 -- Boise, Idaho
Projection: Ohio Bobcats vs. San Jose State Spartans
Ohio finishes second in the MAC East and qualifies for its school-record fifth consecutive bowl, making its second appearance here in three years. The Spartans will fail to match last season's success but will still make back-to-back bowls for the first time since 1986-87.
R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl (C-USA vs. Sun Belt)
Dec. 21, 2013 -- New Orleans
Projection: Tulane Green Wave vs. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns
With 16 returning starters and an advantageous schedule, the Green Wave get to six wins for the first time since 2002. The Ragin' Cajuns win the Sun Belt with coach Mark Hudspeth's best team, yet make their third straight appearance here. The past two New Orleans Bowls have set attendance records, and look for this matchup of in-state teams to do the same.
Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl (American Athletic vs. C-USA)
Dec. 23, 2013 -- St. Petersburg, Fla.
Projection: Air Force Falcons vs. East Carolina Pirates
The American Athletic Conference fails to fill all its bowl slots, and the Falcons are an attractive at-large option, making their seventh consecutive bowl under coach Troy Calhoun. East Carolina, with 18 returning starters, finishes second in the C-USA East and qualifies for its seventh bowl in the past eight years.
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl (C-USA vs. Mountain West)
Dec. 24, 2013 -- Honolulu
Projection: Rice Owls vs. San Diego State Aztecs
With 19 returning starters, the Owls top last season's seven-win total and get to their second straight bowl game for the first time since 1960-61, while finishing second in the C-USA West. The Aztecs qualify for a fourth straight bowl but fail to match last season's nine wins thanks to a tough schedule.
Little Caesars Pizza Bowl (Big Ten vs. MAC)
Dec. 26, 2013 -- Detroit
Projection: Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Bowling Green Falcons
With 16 returning starters, the Golden Gophers are even stronger than last season's team and get to six wins despite losing six of their last eight games. The Falcons win nine games for the first time since 2004 but fall to Northern Illinois in the MAC championship game.
S.D. County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl (Army vs. Mountain West)
Dec. 26, 2013 -- San Diego
Projection: Missouri Tigers vs. Boise State Broncos
Army fails to qualify for a bowl, and Missouri is an attractive at-large option after getting to six wins in the SEC, qualifying for its eighth bowl in nine years after missing out last season. Following three straight Las Vegas Bowl appearances, the Broncos make their first appearance here since 2008, having dropped a couple of tough road games.
Military Bowl (ACC vs. C-USA)
Dec. 27, 2013 -- Annapolis, Md.
Projection: Maryland Terrapins vs. Southern Miss Golden Eagles
The Terrapins figure to have much better luck at the quarterback spot with regards to injuries and, as a result, improve their win total by at least two victories for the second consecutive year. After having their streak of 18 consecutive winning seasons end last year in a dismal 0-12 campaign, the Golden Eagles shock many and get back to a bowl with six wins.
Texas Bowl (Big Ten vs. Big 12)
Dec. 27, 2013 -- Houston
Projection: Indiana Hoosiers vs. Kansas State Wildcats
With 19 returning starters and an advantageous schedule, the Hoosiers qualify for just their second bowl in the past 19 years. After back-to-back double-digit win seasons, the Wildcats take a step back with just 10 returning starters but still qualify for their fourth consecutive bowl under the always-underrated Bill Snyder.
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl (BYU vs. Pac-12)
Dec. 27, 2013 -- San Francisco
Projection: Brigham Young Cougars vs. Washington Huskies
The Cougars have an agreement to be placed here if they reach bowl eligibility, and they easily do despite a killer schedule that could see them face 10 potential bowl teams. The Huskies also face a tough schedule but finally break through and top seven wins, setting up a matchup between Washington coach Steve Sarkisian and his alma mater.
New Era Pinstripe Bowl (American Athletic vs. Big 12)
Dec. 28, 2013 -- New York
Projection: Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders
The Scarlet Knights overcome a school-record seven players being selected in the NFL draft and land their eighth bowl bid in the past nine years while staying close to home. The Red Raiders fail to live up to high expectations under first-year coach Kliff Kingsbury but still reach their 13th bowl game in 14 years.
Belk Bowl (ACC vs. American Athletic)
Dec. 28, 2013 -- Charlotte, N.C.
Projection: North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Cincinnati Bearcats
After a one-year bowl ban, the Tar Heels are now eligible and match last season's eight wins thanks to the return of quarterback Bryn Renner and a manageable schedule. The Bearcats start off the season at least 8-1 but fall just short of the American Athletic championship and play here for the second year in a row against a team playing close to home.
Dec. 21, 2013 -- Boise, Idaho
Projection: Ohio Bobcats vs. San Jose State Spartans
Ohio finishes second in the MAC East and qualifies for its school-record fifth consecutive bowl, making its second appearance here in three years. The Spartans will fail to match last season's success but will still make back-to-back bowls for the first time since 1986-87.
R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl (C-USA vs. Sun Belt)
Dec. 21, 2013 -- New Orleans
Projection: Tulane Green Wave vs. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns
With 16 returning starters and an advantageous schedule, the Green Wave get to six wins for the first time since 2002. The Ragin' Cajuns win the Sun Belt with coach Mark Hudspeth's best team, yet make their third straight appearance here. The past two New Orleans Bowls have set attendance records, and look for this matchup of in-state teams to do the same.
Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl (American Athletic vs. C-USA)
Dec. 23, 2013 -- St. Petersburg, Fla.
Projection: Air Force Falcons vs. East Carolina Pirates
The American Athletic Conference fails to fill all its bowl slots, and the Falcons are an attractive at-large option, making their seventh consecutive bowl under coach Troy Calhoun. East Carolina, with 18 returning starters, finishes second in the C-USA East and qualifies for its seventh bowl in the past eight years.
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl (C-USA vs. Mountain West)
Dec. 24, 2013 -- Honolulu
Projection: Rice Owls vs. San Diego State Aztecs
With 19 returning starters, the Owls top last season's seven-win total and get to their second straight bowl game for the first time since 1960-61, while finishing second in the C-USA West. The Aztecs qualify for a fourth straight bowl but fail to match last season's nine wins thanks to a tough schedule.
Little Caesars Pizza Bowl (Big Ten vs. MAC)
Dec. 26, 2013 -- Detroit
Projection: Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Bowling Green Falcons
With 16 returning starters, the Golden Gophers are even stronger than last season's team and get to six wins despite losing six of their last eight games. The Falcons win nine games for the first time since 2004 but fall to Northern Illinois in the MAC championship game.
S.D. County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl (Army vs. Mountain West)
Dec. 26, 2013 -- San Diego
Projection: Missouri Tigers vs. Boise State Broncos
Army fails to qualify for a bowl, and Missouri is an attractive at-large option after getting to six wins in the SEC, qualifying for its eighth bowl in nine years after missing out last season. Following three straight Las Vegas Bowl appearances, the Broncos make their first appearance here since 2008, having dropped a couple of tough road games.
Military Bowl (ACC vs. C-USA)
Dec. 27, 2013 -- Annapolis, Md.
Projection: Maryland Terrapins vs. Southern Miss Golden Eagles
The Terrapins figure to have much better luck at the quarterback spot with regards to injuries and, as a result, improve their win total by at least two victories for the second consecutive year. After having their streak of 18 consecutive winning seasons end last year in a dismal 0-12 campaign, the Golden Eagles shock many and get back to a bowl with six wins.
Texas Bowl (Big Ten vs. Big 12)
Dec. 27, 2013 -- Houston
Projection: Indiana Hoosiers vs. Kansas State Wildcats
With 19 returning starters and an advantageous schedule, the Hoosiers qualify for just their second bowl in the past 19 years. After back-to-back double-digit win seasons, the Wildcats take a step back with just 10 returning starters but still qualify for their fourth consecutive bowl under the always-underrated Bill Snyder.
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl (BYU vs. Pac-12)
Dec. 27, 2013 -- San Francisco
Projection: Brigham Young Cougars vs. Washington Huskies
The Cougars have an agreement to be placed here if they reach bowl eligibility, and they easily do despite a killer schedule that could see them face 10 potential bowl teams. The Huskies also face a tough schedule but finally break through and top seven wins, setting up a matchup between Washington coach Steve Sarkisian and his alma mater.
New Era Pinstripe Bowl (American Athletic vs. Big 12)
Dec. 28, 2013 -- New York
Projection: Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders
The Scarlet Knights overcome a school-record seven players being selected in the NFL draft and land their eighth bowl bid in the past nine years while staying close to home. The Red Raiders fail to live up to high expectations under first-year coach Kliff Kingsbury but still reach their 13th bowl game in 14 years.
Belk Bowl (ACC vs. American Athletic)
Dec. 28, 2013 -- Charlotte, N.C.
Projection: North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Cincinnati Bearcats
After a one-year bowl ban, the Tar Heels are now eligible and match last season's eight wins thanks to the return of quarterback Bryn Renner and a manageable schedule. The Bearcats start off the season at least 8-1 but fall just short of the American Athletic championship and play here for the second year in a row against a team playing close to home.
Russell Athletic Bowl (ACC vs. American Athletic)
Dec. 28, 2013 -- Orlando, Fla.
Projection:Clemson Tigersvs.UCF Knights
Despite a 10-2 record, the Tigers get passed over for the last two at-large BCS spots in favor of Notre Dame and USC, and Virginia Tech gets the nod over them in the Chick-fil-A Bowl to avoid a rematch against South Carolina. The Knights have a solid first season in the AAC by winning nine games and get to play in their home city.
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl (Big Ten vs. Big 12)
Dec. 28, 2013 -- Tempe, Ariz.
Projection:Northwestern Wildcatsvs.Baylor Bears
The Wildcats fail to match last season's 10-win total due to a much tougher conference schedule but still qualify for their sixth straight bowl under coach Pat Fitzgerald. The Bears open the season at least 6-1 but falter down the stretch with three more losses. However, they qualify for their fourth straight bowl for the first time in school history.
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl (Mountain West vs. Navy)
Dec. 30, 2013 -- Fort Worth, Texas
Projection:Colorado State Ramsvs.Navy Midshipmen
The Rams return 17 starters and will get improved quarterback and running back play this season. On defense, they have a top-notch linebacker corps. They get to their first bowl since 2008 with seven wins. Navy has an agreement to be placed here with bowl eligibility and barely does so, getting to six wins for its 10th bowl in 11 years.
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl (ACC vs. SEC)
Dec. 30, 2013 -- Nashville, Tenn.
Projection:Georgia Tech Yellow Jacketsvs.Tennessee Volunteers
Last season, the Yellow Jackets ended a streak of seven straight bowl losses. This season, with coach Paul Johnson's best team since 2009, they qualify for their 17th straight bowl (the fourth-longest streak in the country). Tennessee, after back-to-back losing seasons, wins its final three games to qualify for a bowl under new coach Butch Jones.
Valero Alamo Bowl (Big 12 vs. Pac-12)
Dec. 30, 2013 -- San Antonio
Projection:Oklahoma Soonersvs.Stanford Cardinal
The inexperienced Sooners succumb to a tough schedule that sees them play five ranked teams away from home, but they still qualify for their 15th consecutive bowl under Bob Stoops. After a 7-0 start, the Cardinal lose two of their final five games and get passed over for a BCS at-large spot despite achieving double-digit wins for the fourth straight season.
Holiday Bowl (Big 12 vs. Pac-12)
Dec. 30, 2013 -- San Diego
Projection:TCU Horned Frogsvs.Arizona State Sun Devils
A much more veteran Horned Frogs team this season wins eight games despite a tough schedule and qualifies for its ninth consecutive bowl under coach Gary Patterson. The Sun Devils win nine games for the first time since 2007 but just miss out on the Pac-12 South title thanks to an early-season loss to USC.
AdvoCare V100 Bowl (ACC vs. SEC)
Dec. 31, 2013 -- Shreveport, La.
Projection:North Carolina State Wolfpackvs.Auburn Tigers
The Wolfpack return only 10 starters and have a new coach in Dave Doeren but still qualify for their fourth straight bowl thanks to a soft first-half schedule. Auburn takes advantage of a weak nonconference schedule by going 4-0 as the Tigers double their win total from last season in coach Gus Malzahn's first year.
Hyundai Sun Bowl (ACC vs. Pac-12)
Dec. 31, 2013 -- El Paso, Texas
Projection:Miami Hurricanesvs.Oregon State Beavers
With 18 returning starters, the Hurricanes win nine games for only the second time since 2005 but finish second in the ACC Coastal Division to Virginia Tech. The Beavers start off 7-0 but lose three of their final five games. However, they still achieve eight or more wins for the seventh time since 2003.
AutoZone Liberty Bowl (C-USA vs. SEC)
Dec. 31, 2013 -- Memphis, Tenn.
Projection:Marshall Thundering Herdvs.Arkansas Razorbacks
The Thundering Herd are my No. 1 most improved team in the country and go from five to 10 wins after upsetting Tulsa in the C-USA championship game. Arkansas wins all four of its nonconference games and then beats Auburn and Mississippi State at home in SEC play while getting to at least six wins under new coach Bret Bielema.
Chick-fil-A Bowl (ACC vs. SEC)
Dec. 31, 2013 -- Atlanta
Projection:Virginia Tech Hokiesvs.South Carolina Gamecocks
After being a huge disappointment last season, the Hokies get back to their winning ways with 15 returning starters and win the ACC Coastal for the fifth time in seven years. The Gamecocks win 10 regular-season games for the third consecutive year but miss out on the SEC championship game again thanks to an early-season loss to Georgia.
TaxSlayer.com Gator Bowl (Big Ten vs. SEC)
Jan. 1, 2014 -- Jacksonville, Fla.
Projection:Michigan Wolverinesvs.Ole Miss Rebels
After starting off the season at least 6-1, the Wolverines drop two of their final five games and just miss out on appearing in the Big Ten championship game. Ole Miss, with 19 returning starters, overcomes a brutal first seven games by winning five straight to close out the season and makes its second straight bowl under coach Hugh Freeze.
Heart of Dallas Bowl (Big Ten vs. C-USA)
Jan. 1, 2014 -- Dallas
Projection:Iowa Hawkeyesvs.Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz usually surprises when expectations are low, and after a 4-8 season in 2012, the Hawkeyes win six games for the 12th time in 13 years. Tulsa gets upset in the C-USA championship game but does not mind the exposure of playing in a New Year's Day bowl after winning at least eight games for the eighth time in the past nine years.
Capital One Bowl (Big Ten vs. SEC)
Jan. 1, 2014 -- Orlando, Fla.
Projection:Wisconsin Badgersvs.LSU Tigers
The Badgers, despite having a new coach, take advantage of avoiding Nebraska, Michigan and Michigan State in conference play and top last season's eight-win total. Despite a brutal schedule, the Tigers win at least 10 games for the seventh time under Les Miles and make their first appearance here since 2009.
Outback Bowl (Big Ten vs. SEC)
Jan. 1, 2014 -- Tampa, Fla.
Projection:Michigan State Spartansvs.Florida Gators
After a disappointing 2012, the Spartans have the Big Ten's best defense and get improved quarterback play en route to at least a nine-win season. The Gators, despite having top-10 talent, play the nation's toughest schedule this season and lose at least three games for the third time in the past four years.
Dec. 28, 2013 -- Orlando, Fla.
Projection:Clemson Tigersvs.UCF Knights
Despite a 10-2 record, the Tigers get passed over for the last two at-large BCS spots in favor of Notre Dame and USC, and Virginia Tech gets the nod over them in the Chick-fil-A Bowl to avoid a rematch against South Carolina. The Knights have a solid first season in the AAC by winning nine games and get to play in their home city.
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl (Big Ten vs. Big 12)
Dec. 28, 2013 -- Tempe, Ariz.
Projection:Northwestern Wildcatsvs.Baylor Bears
The Wildcats fail to match last season's 10-win total due to a much tougher conference schedule but still qualify for their sixth straight bowl under coach Pat Fitzgerald. The Bears open the season at least 6-1 but falter down the stretch with three more losses. However, they qualify for their fourth straight bowl for the first time in school history.
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl (Mountain West vs. Navy)
Dec. 30, 2013 -- Fort Worth, Texas
Projection:Colorado State Ramsvs.Navy Midshipmen
The Rams return 17 starters and will get improved quarterback and running back play this season. On defense, they have a top-notch linebacker corps. They get to their first bowl since 2008 with seven wins. Navy has an agreement to be placed here with bowl eligibility and barely does so, getting to six wins for its 10th bowl in 11 years.
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl (ACC vs. SEC)
Dec. 30, 2013 -- Nashville, Tenn.
Projection:Georgia Tech Yellow Jacketsvs.Tennessee Volunteers
Last season, the Yellow Jackets ended a streak of seven straight bowl losses. This season, with coach Paul Johnson's best team since 2009, they qualify for their 17th straight bowl (the fourth-longest streak in the country). Tennessee, after back-to-back losing seasons, wins its final three games to qualify for a bowl under new coach Butch Jones.
Valero Alamo Bowl (Big 12 vs. Pac-12)
Dec. 30, 2013 -- San Antonio
Projection:Oklahoma Soonersvs.Stanford Cardinal
The inexperienced Sooners succumb to a tough schedule that sees them play five ranked teams away from home, but they still qualify for their 15th consecutive bowl under Bob Stoops. After a 7-0 start, the Cardinal lose two of their final five games and get passed over for a BCS at-large spot despite achieving double-digit wins for the fourth straight season.
Holiday Bowl (Big 12 vs. Pac-12)
Dec. 30, 2013 -- San Diego
Projection:TCU Horned Frogsvs.Arizona State Sun Devils
A much more veteran Horned Frogs team this season wins eight games despite a tough schedule and qualifies for its ninth consecutive bowl under coach Gary Patterson. The Sun Devils win nine games for the first time since 2007 but just miss out on the Pac-12 South title thanks to an early-season loss to USC.
AdvoCare V100 Bowl (ACC vs. SEC)
Dec. 31, 2013 -- Shreveport, La.
Projection:North Carolina State Wolfpackvs.Auburn Tigers
The Wolfpack return only 10 starters and have a new coach in Dave Doeren but still qualify for their fourth straight bowl thanks to a soft first-half schedule. Auburn takes advantage of a weak nonconference schedule by going 4-0 as the Tigers double their win total from last season in coach Gus Malzahn's first year.
Hyundai Sun Bowl (ACC vs. Pac-12)
Dec. 31, 2013 -- El Paso, Texas
Projection:Miami Hurricanesvs.Oregon State Beavers
With 18 returning starters, the Hurricanes win nine games for only the second time since 2005 but finish second in the ACC Coastal Division to Virginia Tech. The Beavers start off 7-0 but lose three of their final five games. However, they still achieve eight or more wins for the seventh time since 2003.
AutoZone Liberty Bowl (C-USA vs. SEC)
Dec. 31, 2013 -- Memphis, Tenn.
Projection:Marshall Thundering Herdvs.Arkansas Razorbacks
The Thundering Herd are my No. 1 most improved team in the country and go from five to 10 wins after upsetting Tulsa in the C-USA championship game. Arkansas wins all four of its nonconference games and then beats Auburn and Mississippi State at home in SEC play while getting to at least six wins under new coach Bret Bielema.
Chick-fil-A Bowl (ACC vs. SEC)
Dec. 31, 2013 -- Atlanta
Projection:Virginia Tech Hokiesvs.South Carolina Gamecocks
After being a huge disappointment last season, the Hokies get back to their winning ways with 15 returning starters and win the ACC Coastal for the fifth time in seven years. The Gamecocks win 10 regular-season games for the third consecutive year but miss out on the SEC championship game again thanks to an early-season loss to Georgia.
TaxSlayer.com Gator Bowl (Big Ten vs. SEC)
Jan. 1, 2014 -- Jacksonville, Fla.
Projection:Michigan Wolverinesvs.Ole Miss Rebels
After starting off the season at least 6-1, the Wolverines drop two of their final five games and just miss out on appearing in the Big Ten championship game. Ole Miss, with 19 returning starters, overcomes a brutal first seven games by winning five straight to close out the season and makes its second straight bowl under coach Hugh Freeze.
Heart of Dallas Bowl (Big Ten vs. C-USA)
Jan. 1, 2014 -- Dallas
Projection:Iowa Hawkeyesvs.Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz usually surprises when expectations are low, and after a 4-8 season in 2012, the Hawkeyes win six games for the 12th time in 13 years. Tulsa gets upset in the C-USA championship game but does not mind the exposure of playing in a New Year's Day bowl after winning at least eight games for the eighth time in the past nine years.
Capital One Bowl (Big Ten vs. SEC)
Jan. 1, 2014 -- Orlando, Fla.
Projection:Wisconsin Badgersvs.LSU Tigers
The Badgers, despite having a new coach, take advantage of avoiding Nebraska, Michigan and Michigan State in conference play and top last season's eight-win total. Despite a brutal schedule, the Tigers win at least 10 games for the seventh time under Les Miles and make their first appearance here since 2009.
Outback Bowl (Big Ten vs. SEC)
Jan. 1, 2014 -- Tampa, Fla.
Projection:Michigan State Spartansvs.Florida Gators
After a disappointing 2012, the Spartans have the Big Ten's best defense and get improved quarterback play en route to at least a nine-win season. The Gators, despite having top-10 talent, play the nation's toughest schedule this season and lose at least three games for the third time in the past four years.