NBA draft prospects with the most at stake in conference tourneys
College basketball's conference tournament season is in full swing, providing many prospects with one last shot to earn an NCAA tournament bid. With the NBA trade deadline in the rearview mirror and armed with a much more accurate picture of where their teams will be drafting, NBA executives are out on the scouting trail in full force, hoping to get a last look at prospects on teams that stumbled during the regular season and are now playing their last games.
We've organized those prospects into four pods, which will all be receiving significant attention from NBA decision-makers over the next five days. What will they be tracking most closely? And which prospects have the most to gain or lose this week?
Big 12/SEC
Kansas City and St. Louis will be flooded with scouts, high-ranking executives and NBA GMs as the two cities will feature half of the top-10 prospects in our top 100. With Missouri's Michael Porter Jr. is expected to take the floor in St. Louis, NBA personnel have surely adjusted their travel schedules to watch the former RSCI No. 2 recruit, who has sat out the majority of the season after undergoing back surgery in November. With NCAA tournament bids on the line, stakes will be high and these should be excellent evaluation settings. -- Mike Schmitz
Texas
Bracketology: Last four in
Mohamed Bamba | C | Top 100 ranking: No. 3
The 7-foot Longhorns center is limping (literally and figuratively) into postseason play as he has missed Texas' past two games with a sprained toe and saw his production tail off somewhat in the few games prior to his absence. Bamba is listed as questionable for Wednesday's game against Iowa State. With Texas right on the tournament bubble and Bamba's spot at No. 3 in our rankings nowhere near set in stone, he has a lot riding on this week. Competing big men
Deandre Ayton,
Jaren Jackson Jr.,
Wendell Carter Jr. and Marvin Bagley III are all expected to play well into March, and Bamba could become a slight afterthought if he doesn't make the NCAA tournament. A physical marvel like Bamba will undoubtedly remind scouts of his elite talent in workouts, but given the questions about his motor and toughness, Bamba needs to help Texas advance and put together a strong performance.
Kerwin Roach II | SG | Top 100 ranking: No. 59
Roach, a 6-foot-3 freak athlete with a developing skill set, is one of the main reasons the Longhorns are even in the NCAA tournament conversation after leading them to an overtime win against West Virginia with 22 points and eight assists. Although still inconsistent, the combo guard has made great strides this season as a shooter, playmaker and defender. Identified because of his explosiveness early in his collegiate career, he's starting to develop into a potential NBA prospect.
First game: Wednesday vs. Iowa State | 9 p.m. ET | ESPNU/WatchESPN
Oklahoma
Bracketology: No. 10 seed
Trae Young | G | Top 100 ranking: No. 8
One of the most polarizing collegiate prospects in recent memory, Young needs a strong conference tournament more than other players. With Oklahoma currently projected as a 10-seed, Young likely has to lead the Sooners to at least one conference tournament win to avoid missing the Big Dance altogether. Despite his monster season, Young is currently in the midst of a downward spiral, shooting only 26.8 percent from 3-point territory and committing 5.2 turnovers per game over his past 10, and the Sooners are 3-7 during that stretch. He's still finding ways to get his numbers (23.4 PPG), but Young has really struggled to impact winning -- a likely mixture of his so-so supporting cast and the personal wall that comes along with the aggressive defenses, unprecedented volume and overabundance of media attention. There are growing concerns about Young's durability over the course of an 82-game NBA season.
Even if NBA teams won't guard him like they do in college, there are questions about how well his frail frame, skill-reliant game and oftentimes embarrassing defense will translate when he matches up against physical marvels such as John Wall or Russell Westbrook. Guards like Young are built for the NCAA tournament, and he needs to do everything in his power to get there. Coming into the season, Young wasn't on our mock draft and he wasn't widely seen as a potential one-and-done prospect. Some scouts are starting to wonder how much of Young's spectacular season was a volume-based mirage that he may not be able to replicate as a starter at the NBA level. There's no questioning Young's tremendous offensive skill level, and he figures to look far more efficient when surrounded by NBA players, but it's important that he wills Oklahoma into a longer season.
First game: Wednesday vs. OSU | 7 p.m. ET | ESPNU/WatchESPN
Missouri
Bracketology: No. 8 seed
Michael Porter Jr. | SF/PF | Top 100 ranking: No. 6
Porter is the main draw in St. Louis as he's expected to return to the floor for the first time since Nov. 10. Although cleared to participate in all basketball activities, Porter has reportedly been weighing the pros and cons about returning to the court as opposed to simply preparing for the NBA draft. Backs can be slow to heal and everyone's body is different, but there are concerns among NBA teams about Porter's mental approach, in particular his willingness to make his teammates better -- a thought that quietly existed among scouts well before the injury. Missouri could use at least one win to solidify its spot in the field of 64 and avoid the play-in game. Although there is the risk of struggling to fit into an already-established team that has won seven of 10 games, Porter could score some points among scouts by returning to the lineup and showcasing his talent. There's a lot to like about Porter's skill level at 6-10 with explosiveness and shot-making ability, but he certainly still has questions to answer about his durability and willingness to fit within a team concept.
Jontay Porter | PF/C | Top 100 ranking: No. 36
While Michael Porter Jr. has long been the family star, his younger brother, Jontay, is quietly putting together an efficient season as the youngest player in our top 100. Over his past 10 games, Jontay is averaging 21.3 points, 11.0 rebounds and 3.9 assists per 40 minutes while making 44.4 percent of his 3s. Although on the pudgy side and a bit limited defensively, Porter is loved by analytics models, and he has certainly set himself up to emerge as a potential first-round prospect in 2019 should he continue to improve his frame and conditioning. With all the attention on Michael's potential return, Jontay can continue to build his draft résumé in St. Louis.
First game: Thursday vs. Georgia/Vanderbilt | 3:30 p.m. ET | SEC Network
Alabama
Bracketology: Last four in
Collin Sexton | G | Top 100 ranking: No. 9
With the draft's top point guard spot up for grabs and Alabama on a brutal five-game skid, the Crimson Tide sorely need their 19-year-old star to right the ship and lead them to at least a pair of victories to get into the tournament. During that five-game stretch, Sexton is shooting a dreadful 11.8 percent from 3, which was one of the biggest concerns about him as a prep star. After a monster start to the season, Sexton has been wildly inconsistent, allowing some previous questions about his shooting and playmaking skills to resurface. With Young trending down, Sexton can seize the opportunity at hand by defeating Texas A&M and terrorizing SEC defenses with the downhill, physical play that made scouts fall in love with him in the first place.
First game: Thursday vs. Texas A&M | 1 p.m. ET | SEC Network
New York
Conveniently featuring three of the top five conference tournaments -- with the Big Ten already complete -- many NBA scouts have elected to park themselves in New York for the entire 10-day stretch starting last week and ending on Sunday with the Big East and ACC tournament championship games. With five prospects in our top 100, Duke will be the main draw, but there are a number of fringe prospects facing high stakes as well. -- Jonathan Givony
Georgia Tech
Bracketology: Win the tourney or bust
Josh Okogie | SG | Top 100 ranking: No. 41
The same age or even younger than many freshmen in our top 100, Okogie could very easily end up in the 2019 NBA draft as a junior, having missed the entire first month of his sophomore season because of an eligibility issue. He's someone teams will be keeping an eye on regardless because of his 7-foot wingspan, tremendous defensive potential and solid scoring instincts, including 38 percent 3-point shooting for his career.
First game: Tuesday vs. Boston College | noon ET | ESPN2/WatchESPN
Notre Dame
Bracketology: First four out
Bonzie Colson | PF | Top 100 ranking: No. 66
Notre Dame will probably need to at least make the semifinals to feel comfortable with its NCAA tournament standing, partially because of the fact that its best player, Colson, missed the past two months of action with a foot injury. For a senior like Colson on his last go-around, having the exposure of the ACC tournament will be beneficial considering how little he has been seen as of late, and he'll have a chance to remind NBA teams of how smart, skilled and productive he is, despite not having a prototypical NBA body.
First game: Tuesday vs. Pitt | 2:30 p.m. ET | ESPN2/WatchESPN
Syracuse
Bracketology: Next four out
Tyus Battle | SG | Top 100 ranking: No. 56
The ACC's third-leading scorer, Battle's lack of efficiency (47 percent from 2, 32 percent from 3) has hampered his draft stock from getting off the ground, and missing the NCAA tournament would be a big blow considering the questions NBA scouts already have about his ability to play winning basketball. Syracuse has a lot of work to do in New York, and that will likely involve beating Wake Forest and then North Carolina to not end up in the NIT.
First game: Tuesday vs. Wake Forest | 7 p.m. ET | ESPNU/WatchESPN
Oshae Brissett | PF | Top 100 ranking: No. 62
Brissett has caught some scouts' eyes with his intriguing combination of size, length, perimeter shooting and overall versatility. His extreme lack of efficiency, including his incredibly poor 36 percent 2-point percentage, likely means he's more of a candidate for the 2019 draft, but having a good showing in New York would give him nice momentum going into his sophomore season.
First game: Tuesday vs. Wake Forest | 7 p.m. ET | ESPNU/WatchESPN
Boston College
Bracketology: Win the tourney or bust
Jerome Robinson | SG | Top 100 ranking: No. 50
A runner-up for conference player of the year honors, Robinson had a historically great showing in the ACC, scoring 24 PPG with an incredible true shooting percentage of 67 over the 18-game stretch, putting himself firmly on the NBA radar in the process. BC's lack of overall success has hampered his draft stock, and at this point most scouts think he will be back for his senior season. Many executives still haven't gotten eyes on him, as Conte Forum isn't a traditional stopover on the scouting trail, so the exposure of the ACC tournament could be beneficial for him, even if that ends up being for the 2019 draft.
First game: Tuesday vs. Georgia Tech | noon ET | ESPN2/WatchESPN
Louisville
Bracketology: First four out
Ray Spalding | PF | Top 100 ranking: No. 79
This has been a trying season for Louisville and its fan base, and the Cardinals have underachieved badly in the wake of the FBI scandal that cost Rick Pitino his job. None of their prospects have had overly productive seasons, with Spalding being the only one potentially who still has a case for draft consideration. Louisville will be sweating on Selection Sunday if it doesn't come away with two wins in New York, which would include beating Virginia in the quarterfinals. Spalding will have to be at his best for the Cardinals to have any chance at doing so.
First game: Wednesday vs. Florida State | noon ET | ESPN/WatchESPN