I'm not assuming anything. I'm seeing all of this with well versed boxing eyes.
There's a huge question mark on both of these dudes. I'm only doing the same baseline assumption everyone else is doing which is looking at the stylistic match up along with certain strategic measures used within the fight.
I been said both these nikkas health bars are no longer green. Both are prolly yellow right now.
That same circus midget beat the shyt outta Jesse Vargas tho. Mikey's effort against Spence is what did him in. Once he felt like he couldn't win, dude wasn't going to go for it. A welterweight Orlando Salido would prolly give Spence fits tho.
Now to address the bolded....
We definitely watching too different sets of fighters if you think Tsyzu and Spence defense is the same. At least Spence keeps his fukking hands up. You really have to punch at him to go through his guard and connect flush. Tim drops his hands a lot on offense. Dude catches flush punches all the time.
In 3 rds Tim took more flush shots in his last fight than Spence took against Porter, Swift, and Ugas combined.
Tim would have died if he was in there with Bud taking the same shots Spence took for all them rounds.