Projected SEC standings from the athletic
Quick observations, explanations
LSU, unbeaten? Yeah, it seems a stretch. But there’s no Georgia or Texas on the schedule. The toughest games (Alabama, Ole Miss and Oklahoma) are at home.
Similarly, are we this high on Missouri? Not exactly, but the schedule makes it easier to look like it. No Georgia, Texas or LSU. It gets Oklahoma at home.
The flip side: This down on Arkansas? Not particularly, and would feel a lot better picking the Razorbacks to be 4-4 in the conference. But there’s no Vanderbilt, or even Florida. And yes, we are down on the Gators, but that down? If we were picking a general record range for Florida, as well as Arkansas and Oklahoma, we’d be more generous. But the task here was to pick the individual games and let the records fall where they may.
As for Alabama, yes it got dinged here for no longer having the GOAT head coach. The Georgia game was specifically flipped, and it was tempting to pick Tennessee, with that game in Knoxville.
SEC championship
LSU vs. … ???
The SEC hasn’t announced its tiebreakers. But those are not expected to diverge much from the current ones to
determine the division champions. The above scenario would be a three-way tie. The first tiebreaker in the division era was head-to-head record among the teams, and in this case, the only head-to-head matchup was Texas beating Georgia. So the Longhorns would get it … if that is the tiebreaker.
But when the Pac-12 (R.I.P.) got rid of divisions before the 2022 season, it tweaked its formula to say that if not everyone involved in a three-way (or more) tie has played each other, that tiebreaker is not invoked. The Pac-12’s
next tiebreaker is record among common opponents. The teams all three teams have played. But that was just one team — Mississippi State — and all three won. That also covers the next tiebreaker, so it then goes to the fourth one: “Combined win percentage in conference games of conference opponents (i.e., the strength of conference schedule).”
Georgia: 33-31
Texas: 20-44
Missouri: 19-45
So Georgia wins that tiebreaker. Then again, in the new CFP system, did the Bulldogs
want to win the tiebreaker?
College Football Playoff
The top four conference champions will get the top four seeds and byes into the quarterfinals. So there is motivation to get to Atlanta. The game will still have meaning, with the LSU-Georgia winner getting a valuable bye.
But it could be argued that by losing, Georgia would endanger its Playoff spot — or at least fall out of getting a home game in the first round. Would it be better to not play in the game at all and preserve that one-loss record as Texas and Missouri (both 11-1) are doing in this scenario? There could be two-loss teams that risk taking a third loss in the SEC championship. Coaches have been wondering aloud about that, hinting they would prefer to give their players a week of rest rather than play in a game that could hurt more than help their case.
Meanwhile, what about the case for other at-large teams? Carrying this hypothetical season forward, it’s hard to see any one-loss team missing out, along with the loser of the SEC championship. So that’s four teams. But Alabama and Ole Miss are sitting there at 10-2 — and Alabama has a win over Missouri, which has a relatively weak schedule strength. So is Texas’, but it would own a win over Georgia.
Arguments will ensue. And that’s not even taking into account the national field and how many quality teams emanate from the other three power conferences.
It’s going to get heated. It will be complicated. And it will be here soon.
LSU
Georgia
Missouri
Texas
Alabama
Ole Miss
Auburn
Kentucky
Texas A&M
Oklahoma
South Carolina
Florida
Arkansas
Mississippi State
Vanderbilt
Gus won
