The Official 2024-25 MLB Hot Stove Thread

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Long article. I'm only posting a piece of it.

:jbhmm:


A record deal, but is Soto worth it?​

Despite elevated expectations, the contract still beat public forecasts of term, total dollars, and amount deferred. Harper and Machado didn't sign that long ago, yet Soto surpassed the combined value of their deals.

And unlike Shohei Ohtani's record deal, there's remarkably no deferred money here. Soto's deal is worth some $300 million more in present-day value than Ohtani's inflation-adjusted valuation ($460 million). That's a giant leap.


cropped_GettyImages-2166685247.jpg
Quinn Harris / Getty Images


Using Harper and Machado as comps while accounting for MLB revenue growth and adjusting for Soto's superior three-year performance to those two players, we arrived at a 13-year, $635.5-million valuation for Soto in November.

We weren't far off on the annual average value - estimating $48.8 million versus the actual $51 million - but, like most public forecasts, we fell more than $100 million short.

Using inflation-adjusted dollars, Soto's deal rivals the one Alex Rodriguez signed with the Texas Rangers in 2001 entering his age-25 season.

Rodriguez was the most valuable free agent of all time. He was three years younger than Barry Bonds was when Bonds departed the Pittsburgh Pirates to sign a then-record six-year, $44-million deal with the San Francisco Giants before the 1993 season.

Rodriguez was coming off a 41-homer, 9.5-WAR season as a shortstop when he left the Seattle Mariners for a then-record 10-year, $252-million contract with the Rangers. Adjusted for U.S. inflation, A-Rod's pact is worth $445 million.

Since he signed that contract, the average MLB player's salary has increased 120% while MLB revenues have increased 223%. If A-Rod's deal were signed today, based on the rate of player salary inflation, it would be worth $554 million over 10 years. Expanded to the 15-year term Soto got, A-Rod's deal would have been worth $832 million.

Whether Soto is worth this contract is another question.
 

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Long article. I'm only posting a piece of it.

:jbhmm:


A record deal, but is Soto worth it?​

Despite elevated expectations, the contract still beat public forecasts of term, total dollars, and amount deferred. Harper and Machado didn't sign that long ago, yet Soto surpassed the combined value of their deals.

And unlike Shohei Ohtani's record deal, there's remarkably no deferred money here. Soto's deal is worth some $300 million more in present-day value than Ohtani's inflation-adjusted valuation ($460 million). That's a giant leap.


cropped_GettyImages-2166685247.jpg
Quinn Harris / Getty Images


Using Harper and Machado as comps while accounting for MLB revenue growth and adjusting for Soto's superior three-year performance to those two players, we arrived at a 13-year, $635.5-million valuation for Soto in November.

We weren't far off on the annual average value - estimating $48.8 million versus the actual $51 million - but, like most public forecasts, we fell more than $100 million short.

Using inflation-adjusted dollars, Soto's deal rivals the one Alex Rodriguez signed with the Texas Rangers in 2001 entering his age-25 season.

Rodriguez was the most valuable free agent of all time. He was three years younger than Barry Bonds was when Bonds departed the Pittsburgh Pirates to sign a then-record six-year, $44-million deal with the San Francisco Giants before the 1993 season.

Rodriguez was coming off a 41-homer, 9.5-WAR season as a shortstop when he left the Seattle Mariners for a then-record 10-year, $252-million contract with the Rangers. Adjusted for U.S. inflation, A-Rod's pact is worth $445 million.

Since he signed that contract, the average MLB player's salary has increased 120% while MLB revenues have increased 223%. If A-Rod's deal were signed today, based on the rate of player salary inflation, it would be worth $554 million over 10 years. Expanded to the 15-year term Soto got, A-Rod's deal would have been worth $832 million.

Whether Soto is worth this contract is another question.
In an era where hitting is at an extreme premium, Soto is worth every penny, even if he spent the next 15 years as a DH.

There's five guys you can count on to rake every year (Judge, Ohtani, Yordan, Soto and Mookie) and he's one of them, plus, he never gets injured.
 

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If it isn’t the dodgers , I think sasaki will sign with the padres

Smaller market, west coast , has countrymen on the team including a mentor in darvish. As far as pitching infrastructure they aren’t the best At development , but everything else is in their favor
 

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If it isn’t the dodgers , I think sasaki will sign with the padres

Smaller market, west coast , has countrymen on the team including a mentor in darvish. As far as pitching infrastructure they aren’t the best At development , but everything else is in their favor
Why cant Senga mentor him? :birdman:

And we got the pitching lab in Queens. :birdman:


Just for that, i hope y'all sign Pete to 7/200m :birdman:
 

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Cobb was solid last season & kim
Is solid don’t understand why you hate every move. Goldschmidt declining but don’t see more than a one/two year deal
Cobb is 37 and made just three starts last season. :why:

Kim can't hit. This team needs two impact bats, not more utility guys.

Santander, Christian Walker, even Pete would fill a tremendous need.

Skubal is a free agent in two years and Boras is his agent. They need to be maximizing these two years. Instead, they're doing jackshyt, which means Skubal is definitely walking in 2026 and they won't have the foresight to trade him either. :snoop:

Honestly, if they don't sign some legit guys this winter or don't plan to, just start the Skubal sweepstakes now.
 
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