Long article. I'm only posting a piece of it.
"OMG" was a rallying cry for the New York Mets during their remarkable second-half surge, and OMG took on a new meaning as the details of Soto's record 15-year, $765-million deal emerged Sunday night.There were few comparables for Juan Soto in free agency; rarely do players this good and this...
www.thescore.com
A record deal, but is Soto worth it?
Despite elevated expectations, the contract still beat public forecasts of term, total dollars, and amount deferred. Harper and Machado didn't sign that long ago, yet Soto surpassed the combined value of their deals.
And unlike Shohei Ohtani's record deal, there's remarkably no deferred money here. Soto's deal is worth some $300 million more in present-day value than Ohtani's inflation-adjusted valuation ($460 million). That's a giant leap.
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Using Harper and Machado as comps while accounting for MLB revenue growth and adjusting for Soto's superior three-year performance to those two players,
we arrived at a 13-year, $635.5-million valuation for Soto in November.
We weren't far off on the annual average value - estimating $48.8 million versus the actual $51 million - but, like most public forecasts, we fell more than $100 million short.
Using inflation-adjusted dollars, Soto's deal rivals the one Alex Rodriguez signed with the Texas Rangers in 2001 entering his age-25 season.
Rodriguez was the most valuable free agent of all time. He was three years younger than Barry Bonds was when Bonds departed the Pittsburgh Pirates to sign a then-record six-year, $44-million deal with the San Francisco Giants before the 1993 season.
Rodriguez was coming off a 41-homer, 9.5-WAR season as a shortstop when he left the Seattle Mariners for a then-record 10-year, $252-million contract with the Rangers. Adjusted for U.S. inflation, A-Rod's pact is worth $445 million.
Since he signed that contract, the average MLB player's salary has increased 120% while MLB revenues have increased 223%. If A-Rod's deal were signed today, based on the rate of player salary inflation, it would be worth $554 million over 10 years. Expanded to the 15-year term Soto got, A-Rod's deal would have been worth $832 million.
Whether Soto is worth this contract is another question.