The OFFICIAL 2023 College Football RANDOM THOUGHTS Thread

PREDICT the NATIONAL CHAMPION


  • Total voters
    105
  • Poll closed .

Professor Emeritus

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Aye bro let me ask you a real question since you ain’t answer my question: With the CFP committee, who watches more games than you, knows more then you and conceivably understands the scheduling dynamics, why are they ranking teams the way they do? Can you explain it and the “SEC bias” to me? :lupe:


Yes, they've literally studied this in scientific studies, and the bias comes from the following combination of factors.


1. Voters tend to bias towards teams in their own state, and teams that play schools in their state. Since way more voters and teams are based in the South than are based in the West, they tend to bias towards other teams in their region.

2. Voters tend to bias towards teams they watch. Since SEC teams top-to-bottom have better television deals, and since more voters are in their time zones so they see those games, then they bias towards those teams rather than Pac-12 games that come on at midnight.

3. Voters tend to give more weight towards "perception" of conference strength based on history than to actual conference strength in a given year. Since the SEC has the dominant perception of being the strongest conference, they automatically get that extra credit for conference strength regardless of how they've played that year.

4. Similarly, voters tend to give more weight to perception of conference strength rather than to actual games played. If there are 5 ranked teams in your conference, then the voters judge you more favorably based on that, even if you haven't played any of those ranked teams. And since OOC games have no impact on conference strength, playing a cupcake OOC schedule have very little impact on how strong your viewed.

5. Voters tend to have an outsized bias towards wins/losses over all over factors. So winning more games with a easy schedule is overvalued compared to winning slightly fewer games with a much tougher schedule.


Those would be the five most prominent reasons that the SEC ends up overrated in polling.
 

AVXL

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Yes, they've literally studied this in scientific studies, and the bias comes from the following combination of factors.


1. Voters tend to bias towards teams in their own state, and teams that play schools in their state. Since way more voters and teams are based in the South than are based in the West, they tend to bias towards other teams in their region.

2. Voters tend to bias towards teams they watch. Since SEC teams top-to-bottom have better television deals, and since more voters are in their time zones so they see those games, then they bias towards those teams rather than Pac-12 games that come on at midnight.

3. Voters tend to give more weight towards "perception" of conference strength based on history than to actual conference strength in a given year. Since the SEC has the dominant perception of being the strongest conference, they automatically get that extra credit for conference strength regardless of how they've played that year.

4. Similarly, voters tend to give more weight to perception of conference strength rather than to actual games played. If there are 5 ranked teams in your conference, then the voters judge you more favorably based on that, even if you haven't played any of those ranked teams. And since OOC games have no impact on conference strength, playing a cupcake OOC schedule have very little impact on how strong your viewed.

5. Voters tend to have an outsized bias towards wins/losses over all over factors. So winning more games with a easy schedule is overvalued compared to winning slightly fewer games with a much tougher schedule.


Those would be the five most prominent reasons that the SEC ends up overrated in polling.

Wow breh I feel like I actually learned something here :ohhh:

That you’re even more full of shyt than I initially thought

Here are the 2023-2024 College Football Playoff Committee Members:

  • Boo Corrigan
    NC State Athletic Director, February 2024
  • Mitch Barnhart
    Kentucky Athletic Director, February 2024
  • Chris Ault
    Nevada Athletic Director, February 2026
  • Mark Harlan
    Utah Athletic Director, February 2026
  • Chet Gladchuk
    Navy Athletic Director, February 2025
  • Jim Grobe
    Former coach, February 2025
  • Warde Manuel
    Michigan Athletic Director, February 2025
  • David Sayler,
    Miami (OH) Athletic Director, February 2026
  • Will Shields
    Former Nebraska player, February 2024
  • Rod West
    Former Notre Dame player, February 2025
  • Gene Taylor
    Kansas State Athletic Director, February 2024
  • Joe Taylor
    Virginia Union Athletic Director, February 2024
  • Kelly Whiteside
    Former college football reporter for multiple outlets, February 2025

Outside of the UK AD there’s no SEC presence here and only 3 of these people have current ties to the Southeast. Again I call bullshyt on your claims of bias and the CFP committee doesn’t have to follow the polls, they’re free to choose teams however they want and they’re considering ALL of these points (schedules, strength of schedule, margin of victory, polls, head to head matchups, etc). I’ll trust their judgement over the ramblings of a biased madman, thanks
 

Professor Emeritus

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Oregon is gonna love the Big 10


Nah, because of all the teams moving in, they actually made the schedules pretty tough.

In 2024, Oregon plays Ohio State, Michigan, Washington, UCLA, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, and Maryland. Plus they're talking about Oregon State and Texas Tech OOC. That already gives them 11 teams from Big 5 squads including 3 top-10 opponents, that's a solid schedule.

It'll get easier the next year when they dodge both Michigan and Ohio State....but they'll still play Washington, Penn State, and USC in-conference, potentially Oregon State and Oklahoma State OOC.


Those "only play 1-2 good teams" Big-10 schedules will be a thing of the past.
 

Professor Emeritus

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Wow breh I feel like I actually learned something here :ohhh:

That you’re even more full of shyt than I initially thought

Here are the 2023-2024 College Football Playoff Committee Members:



Outside of the UK AD there’s no SEC presence here and only 3 of these people have current ties to the Southeast. Again I call bullshyt on your claims of bias and the CFP committee doesn’t have to follow the polls, they’re free to choose teams however they want and they’re considering ALL of these points (schedules, strength of schedule, margin of victory, polls, head to head matchups, etc). I’ll trust their judgement over the ramblings of a biased madman, thanks


Disingenuous as fukk.


1. 3 members in SEC states, only 1 member in a Pac-12 state. 5 members living in the South right now, just 2 members living in the West right now.

2. 11 members from the two SEC time zones, only 2 members from the two Pac-12 time zones.

And points #3, #4, and #5 were irrelevant to where they live.


You really don't even try, do you?




I’ll trust their judgement over the ramblings of a biased madman, thanks

You're the same person who said Tennessee was a good team and Utah was a bad team....how'd that argument go for you? Do you still believe the committee was completely unbiased when they ranked Tennessee #21 and didn't rank Utah at all?

Have you noticed that EVERY person in this thread who has commented on it besides you has said ranking Tennessee that high was a bunch of bullshyt?
 

Tony D'Amato

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Nah, because of all the teams moving in, they actually made the schedules pretty tough.

In 2024, Oregon plays Ohio State, Michigan, Washington, UCLA, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, and Maryland. Plus they're talking about Oregon State and Texas Tech OOC. That already gives them 11 teams from Big 5 squads including 3 top-10 opponents, that's a solid schedule.

It'll get easier the next year when they dodge both Michigan and Ohio State....but they'll still play Washington, Penn State, and USC in-conference, potentially Oregon State and Oklahoma State OOC.


Those "only play 1-2 good teams" Big-10 schedules will be a thing of the past.
I see 1 loss. Maybe. To Ohio State. Michigan is made for them
 
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