1. Detroit Pistons
Cade Cunningham | 6-foot-8, lead ballhandler | 19 years old, freshman | Oklahoma State
No changes here at No. 1 from the mock last week. Regardless of what happens in the next 72 hours, Cunningham is, by far, the odds-on favorite to go No. 1 in the 2021 NBA Draft. Sources across the NBA feel, by far, the most likely outcome is that the Pistons select and keep Cunningham.
Now, as I’ve reported basically since lottery night, the Pistons are undertaking the full process in regard to their impending decision. They have apparently accepted calls — even if they haven’t made those calls themselves — regarding potential deals for the No. 1 overall pick. It would be foolish to just automatically shut down anything that comes in. At the end of the day, I think it would take a team blowing away Detroit with an offer to move up to No. 1.
Still, even if Detroit does end up getting blown away by an offer of some sort, I’d expect it’s still Cunningham who goes No. 1. If Detroit did come to the conclusion that it was comfortable with Jalen Green or Evan Mobley — or even if the Pistons had those guys marginally higher on their board than Cunningham — the most sensible deal remains a slide down to No. 2, where they could pick up a couple of first-round picks and still get the gamechanger they need. It would be pretty stunning to see them choose to slide out of the top group of prospects in this class.
It’s not a done deal, but Detroit taking Cunningham remains the best bet.
Range: No. 1.
2. Houston Rockets
Jalen Green | 6-6 guard | 19 years old | G League Ignite
No change here from last week, either. Green remains the name I’ve heard most with the Rockets. The Rockets desperately need explosive talent, regardless of how it “fits.” There is no discussion of “fit” when you don’t have the guy already on the roster. The Rockets are in desperate need of a centerpiece, and Green is about as good of a scoring prospect as I’ve scouted in the last eight years. He’ll be a 20-plus-point-per-game scorer in his career, with a real chance to be a top-five scorer in the NBA at his peak.
Range: No. 2-3
3. Cleveland Cavaliers
Evan Mobley | 7-0 center | 20 years old, freshman | USC
No changes here, either. Mobley remains the name I’ve gotten most for Cleveland. I don’t think the Cavs are likely to move out of No. 3. And it remains exceedingly unlikely Mobley gets beyond pick No. 3. The Cavs really need defensive ability, and Mobley has a higher defensive upside than anybody in this class. I’m pretty skeptical of the Cavaliers plunking down real cap assets by taking Mobley and then handing fellow center Jarrett Allen a big contract, but I don’t think the Mobley side of the equation is the one that you should stop yourself from doing if you’re Cleveland in this case. He makes perfect sense for them at No. 3 given their needs.
Range: No. 2-3
4. Toronto Raptors
Jalen Suggs | 6-5 guard | 20 years old, freshman | Gonzaga
OK, this is where the fun starts. Suggs remains the likely choice here, but I don’t think this is done by any stretch. As I wrote last week, the Raptors have really looked into other players here, including Scottie Barnes and Jonathan Kuminga. Sources around the league have also noted the Raptors have been willing participants in trade discussions. There is a thought that the Raptors really like Mobley. But they would have to move up to get him — where they’d likely have to pay a significant asking price from Houston or Cleveland. Call me skeptical they’re willing to meet that asking price.
So yeah, I’ve got Suggs here. I think it’s still the most likely outcome. But this is the spot I’m looking at right now as to where the draft surprises could start. He would be a perfect fit with this roster, the kind of high-upside potential star the team needs to build around moving forward. It’s hard to imagine a better fit in the backcourt with Fred VanVleet than him due to his athleticism and defensive prowess. With Suggs, the Raptors would be a center away from building one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, plus one that has legitimate on-ball creation. But I also understand that I’m generally higher on Suggs than the industry at large, having him at No. 2 on my personal board.
Range: Nos. 4-5
5. Orlando Magic
Scottie Barnes | 6-9 forward | 19 years old, freshman | Florida State
No changes here for the Magic. I noted in the previous mock that Barnes is seen by the NBA as much more likely to be the selection here at No. 5 than Kuminga. Sources also believe that if the Raptors go off the board and select Barnes, then Suggs would be the likely pick at No. 5. Having said that, for some teams, it wouldn’t really be off the board. Multiple teams I’ve spoken with actually have Barnes as a top-four prospect in this class, ahead of Suggs or Green. He fits everything this Orlando front office looks for, as they love players who have elite positional size and length in addition to high character. I’d anticipate Barnes being off the board somewhere between picks No. 4 and 5, with an outside shot of No. 6.
Range: Nos. 4-6
6. Oklahoma City Thunder
James Bouknight | 6-5 wing | 20 years old, sophomore | Connecticut
As I wrote last week, Bouknight has been seen as the most likely player to crash into the top six. At that time, I felt like it was basically a toss-up on Kuminga versus Bouknight based on the intel, as sources indicated the Thunder have been high on Bouknight throughout the pre-draft process. At this point, it feels much more likely to be Bouknight over Kuminga given the opinion of sources around the league. Having said that, the Thunder are a notoriously secretive front office, so it’s possible there could be some smokescreening in regard to preferences. There will also be trade discussions here, as the Thunder are seen league-wide as a team that wants to move up in the draft order. But Bouknight has increased his standing league-wide with a terrific pre-draft process where he’s convinced teams about his shooting acumen despite substandard numbers in college due to contextual situations.
I would anticipate Bouknight hears his name called either at No. 6 or at No. 7, with an outside shot of reaching No. 8. I’d be stunned if he got beyond there.
Range: Nos. 6-8
7. Golden State Warriors (via MIN)
Jonathan Kuminga | 6-7 wing/forward | 18 years old | G League Ignite
This is another inflection point of the draft, along with No. 4. League sources are still a bit unclear as to how the Warriors feel about Kuminga in comparison to some of the other players purported to be high on their board, including Bouknight, Moses Moody and Josh Giddey. Bouknight is seen as the favorite at this point to go No. 7 if he were to get to this spot. If he’s gone, this gets a bit more complicated. I’ve gone with Kuminga here, but this is a bit more speculative than the first few picks in this class. Kuminga would absolutely be the highest-upside asset if the Warriors are looking to try to go star-hunting. He’s a legitimate shot creator. But his downside is much greater than that of Bouknight or Moody, as he’s not a particularly good shooter or defender right now despite athleticism that would make you think he should be.
If Kuminga isn’t picked here, he has a chance to fall to No. 10 or 11, even. The range is a bit wider than you’d think.
Range: Nos. 6-11
8. Orlando Magic (via CHI)
Moses Moody | 6-6 wing | 19 years old, freshman | Arkansas
Moody has been a top-11 guy within my mock drafts since March, and that doesn’t change. Simply put, the feedback on Moody from teams has been very strong throughout the year, and it remains strong. Teams see his 3-and-D potential as being extremely safe. Additionally, there are some teams that believe he has some real shot-creation upside given that he’s only 19 years old and extremely skilled. He fits Orlando perfectly. He fits the Magic’s preferences of a player that has great positional size and length and fills a real need as a shooter. I’d be pretty blown away if he got outside of the lottery, given that the Warriors like him and have No. 14. But I’d consider his mostly range somewhere between No. 7 and 11.
The other names I’ve heard here for Orlando include Franz Wagner and Alperen Sengun. Another name I’ve heard pop up over the last 48 or so hours as a potential surprise pick is Ziaire Williams, with two league sources believing the Magic have the Stanford wing very high on their board — again, something that wouldn’t be all that surprising given the team’s emphasis on positional size, length and character.
Range: Nos. 7 to 14
9. Sacramento Kings
Franz Wagner | 6-9 forward | 19 years old, sophomore | Michigan
This doesn’t change from the most recent mock. I wouldn’t say this pick is a done deal necessarily, as the Kings are thought to be somewhat active in trade discussions. But Wagner is a terrific defender who would go to a team that desperately needs more defensive play. Three things have consistently come up when discussing what the Kings are thinking with sources around the league. First, that they would love to take a bigger wing/forward. Second, that defense is important to them in this pick. And third, that analytics will play a bigger role here than in other situations league-wide, given Monte McNair’s background and ownership’s emphasis on being data-driven. Wagner is the guy that ticks all the boxes there as a 6-foot-9 player with real defensive acumen who is actually younger than quite a few of the one-and-dones in this class. He’s seen as likely at this point to hear his name called somewhere between No. 8 and 10, given the three teams making picks here.
The other name that has come up most often here as being a possible selection is Sengun.
Range: Nos. 8-13
10. Memphis Grizzlies (via NOP)
Josh Giddey | 6-8 wing | 18 years old | Adelaide
A trade! Memphis acquired this pick Monday in a trade with the Pelicans that sent Eric Bledsoe, Steven Adams, No. 10, No. 40 and a top 10-protected 2022 first-round pick from the Lakers for Jonas Valanciunas and Nos. 17 and 51 in this draft. The Pelicans and Grizzlies have been seen as natural trade partners for a little while now, as the Grizzlies have wanted to move up in the draft and the Pelicans have wanted to carve out cap space. From the Grizzlies’ perspective, I’m a bit surprised they decided to move on Valanciunas, who I felt was their most consistent player a season ago and a genuine top-10 center in the league. However, given that he only has one year left on his contract before what is assuredly an expensive contract in the summer of 2022, maybe the Grizzlies felt this was the best time to cash in on his value to accomplish their goal of moving up the board as well as acquiring an additional first-round pick. It’s a reasonable calculation, in my view, especially given that they acquired a ready-made replacement in Adams.
Sources across the league have felt like the Grizzlies have been fans of Giddey throughout the entire process, which is why he slots in as the pick here. The other two names I got when specifically asking whom it could be that they’re moving up for if it’s not Giddey were Wagner and Moody, who came off the board ahead of this spot. It’s exceedingly likely that one of these players is on the board when the Grizzlies pick. I see Giddey’s range as anywhere from No. 7 to No. 13, and don’t be surprised to see another team try to move up into the couple of picks above Memphis to attempt to beat the Grizzlies to the Giddey punch. It’s seen as unlikely he’d get past San Antonio.
11. Charlotte Hornets
Corey Kispert | 6-7 wing | 22 years old, senior | Gonzaga
Texas big man Kai Jones has been connected often with this pick in league circles, but I just can’t get past the idea that it would be a complete zag from everything the Hornets’ front office has done in the past. Look back through their draft history in the Michael Jordan era. Frank Kaminsky, Miles Bridges, Kemba Walker, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Cody Zeller, Devonte’ Graham, Cody Martin, Malik Monk, Vernon Carey, PJ Washington. All of them were elite collegiate producers who were either All-American or borderline All-American choices. The only one that doesn’t line up is Noah Vonleh.
Kispert was an All-American this past season at Gonzaga, and his shooting would be an enormous help for LaMelo Ball in terms of creating space.
Range: Nos. 10-17
12. San Antonio Spurs
Alperen Sengun | 6-10 big | 19 years old, international | Besiktas
Sengun pops off the board here to the Spurs. San Antonio could certainly use more offensive firepower from its frontcourt, and Sengun has the kind of terrific feel for the game as a scorer that would mesh well with the young guards that San Antonio is building around in the frontcourt. The Spurs are thought to be fans also of Kispert and Giddey, but both of them are off the board here.
As referenced above, it’s possible Sengun is off the board by this point, as both Sacramento and Orlando are noted to be big fans. He’s likely to be selected in the lottery.
Range: Nos. 8-16.
