The Horn of Africa Current Events Thread

The Odum of Ala Igbo

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Im just speculating, who knows :manny: Sanctions have been removed, but nobody has seen real benefits with inflation skyrocketing. Bashir had to shuffle his cabinet in response to pressure a few months ago, so he may be facing internal pressure within the ruling party/military Sudan’s economic crisis: Bashir dissolves government

This one started in the smaller towns in the North and the East before it arrived in Khartoum today, rather than vice-versa. It'll be interesting to see how army/security forces respond if it grows.

The army can’t solve inflation. Removing al-Bashir wouldn’t help but we shall see
 

2Quik4UHoes

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3/4th of their oil output left with South Sudan so I can only imagine the chewed gum and tied string methods they’ve been using to keep the economy afloat.

Shame because independence hasn’t worked out for South Sudan at all. Can’t see them going back or Sudan convincing them to come back.
 

Trajan

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3/4th of their oil output left with South Sudan so I can only imagine the chewed gum and tied string methods they’ve been using to keep the economy afloat.

Getting that Saudi bag :mjlit:

Mercenaries to Yemen.... cutting off ties with Iran. Saudi Arabia been making it rain billions on them every year since

giphy.gif
 

Misreeya

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3/4th of their oil output left with South Sudan so I can only imagine the chewed gum and tied string methods they’ve been using to keep the economy afloat.

Shame because independence hasn’t worked out for South Sudan at all. Can’t see them going back or Sudan convincing them to come back.

There are other things beside oil we can rely on, gold is starting to be mined. Gas is found in the red sea, also if we get our cards right there is a potential of a vibrant tourism industry. As this point no one even in the north wants to reunite. It like wanting to reunite with Egypt back in the 1950's
 

2Quik4UHoes

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Getting that Saudi bag :mjlit:

Mercenaries to Yemen.... cutting off ties with Iran. Saudi Arabia been making it rain billions on them every year since

giphy.gif

That MBS bag ain’t no joke...:lolbron:

There are other things beside oil we can rely on, gold is starting to be mined. Gas is found in the red sea, also if we get our cards right there is a potential of a vibrant tourism industry. As this point no one even in the north wants to reunite. It like wanting to reunite with Egypt back in the 1950's

Most definitely, but it seems like oil funds would be a quick fix to this issue. I take it your in or from Sudan. Why didn’t the country shift to a more diverse economy after the split? Did the sanctions have an effect on that? I don’t know enough about Sudan so I’m just curious about the root causes.
 

thatrapsfan

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Getting that Saudi bag :mjlit:

Mercenaries to Yemen.... cutting off ties with Iran. Saudi Arabia been making it rain billions on them every year since

giphy.gif

:dead: @ this GIF


I actually read the Saudis have not followed through with their promises and the UAE only deposited $500mill in their central bank. Thats why Bashirs visit to Damascus on a Russian plane was likely not greenlighted by GCC.
 

thatrapsfan

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So far the protests in Sudan's major cities Khartoum and Omdurman seem limited. It seems this uprising is much more active in towns in its Northern/Eastern periphery. Apparently this is because they cut bread allocation to regions outside of Khartoum state to make up for a deficit in the big cities. But this can obviously spread way beyond its initial trigger.

Sudan has a long history of protests. They toppled military rulers in 1964 and 1985: The spectre of Sudan's popular uprisings
 

Trajan

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:dead: @ this GIF


I actually read the Saudis have not followed through with their promises and the UAE only deposited $500mill in their central bank. Thats why Bashirs visit to Damascus on a Russian plane was likely not greenlighted by GCC.

KSA have def been known to renege on promises word to HSM. But according to Arab papers Saudis been investing paper and UAE giving in-kind help in addition to the $2bn that was initially deposited by KSA when the mercenaries were sent

Saudi Arabia is the largest Arab investor in Sudan with more than 590 projects. In 2016, Saudi investments in Sudan increased to $15bn compared to $11bn in 2015.

Sudan backs Saudi Arabia’s expulsion of Canadian ambassador - Sudan Tribune: Plural news and views on Sudan


Btw what do you think of the article below. It touches on why relations have soured:

Not only are the Emiratis and Saudis mired in a seemingly endless conflict, their 8,000-plus Sudanese mercenaries are beginning to turn on their Emirati and Saudi officers. This is the result of Saudi penny-pinching (large numbers of Sudanese soldiers are owed months of backpay) and the fact that UAE/Saudi commanders regularly and knowingly order the Sudanese units into virtual suicide missions against the Houthi rebels. According to the Middle East Eye, as of November of 2017, upwards of 500 Sudanese soldiers have died in the conflict.

“These guys are cannon fodder for the Saudis, and they know it,” Michael Horton, a Yemen expert and fellow at the Jamestown Foundation, says. The result has been a number of incidents in which Sudanese soldiers have murdered their UAE or Saudi commanders, what Horton described as “a nasty piece of business.”

But according to al-Amin, it’s the “off the books” Saudi-Sudan economic relationship that has proven crucial. Following the 2015 Saudi-Sudan accord, the UAE (the guiding hand behind many of MbS’s decisions) ), dropped its close monitoring of Sudanese gold shipments to their gold markets in Abu Dhabi and Dubai. While the UAE had always served as the most lucrative laundering site for Sudanese “blood gold” coming out of Darfur, its markets were flooded with Sudanese gold following the 2015 understanding. As a result, Sudan — one of Africa’s largest gold producers — was further empowered to skirt U.S.-imposed economic sanctions (which have since been lifted). “Sudanese government-sponsored gold trafficking through Dubai is a multi-billion dollar annual market,” the former CIA officer with whom I spoke says. “Many gold buyers only care if there is a simple customs declaration, and they’re easy enough to get. Large bullion shipments are facilitated by complicit senior customs officials and Emirati royals, who all get their cut.”

The knock-on effects are profound: The UAE’s willingness to turn a blind eye to Sudanese conflict gold (especially from its lucrative mines in Darfur), has given the Bashir regime a desperately needed economic lifeline, in exchange the Emirates and Saudis have deepened their investments in Sudan and, most recently, been allowed to send recruiting officers to search for new Sudanese recruits free of Khartoum’s oversight. Additionally, the UAE/Saudi intervention in Yemen included deploying Sudanese mercenaries to fight terrorist groups in Yemen’s gold-rich Hadramout region, where the major mining concessions had been held by Qatar — until, that is, the UAE and Saudi Arabia clamped their embargo on Doha. Put simply, the Yemen war has empowered the Bashir regime and its Darfur militias while, at the same time, both the UAE and Saudis are using their fight in Yemen to lay claim to Qatar’s gold.

:whoo:

Which is to say that, by early 2017, the big winner in the Yemen war seemed to be Sudan’s Omar al-Bashir. But in fact that was not the case. While offloading the Janjaweed militia to Yemen short-circuited complaints about Bashir’s designs on his neighbors, the mounting Sudanese body count in Yemen and persistent complaints from Sudan’s military that the UAE and Saudis were scrimping on their pay led to widespread dissatisfaction among Khartoum’s elite. They worried that Bashir had sold himself, and their country, to a bunch of spoiled Gulf princes.

The curtain in this final act was raised that June, when Bashir’s intelligence services reported that Taha Osman al-Hussein, the director of the president’s office (and Bashir’s closest confidante), had been secretly taking payments from the Saudis for exercising influence on Bashir. This included the recommendation, made by Taha, that Bashir cut Sudan’s ties with Qatar—advice that Bashir rejected. Buying Taha did not come cheaply. “The reports on this put the figure, reliably, at between $20 and $25 million dollars,” Abdulrahman al-Amin told me, “which doesn’t count the mansion that Taha was given by the Emiratis on Dubai’s Palms Island.” Worse yet, as Bashir was informed, Taha had secretly taken on Saudi citizenship—which put him under the protection of Mohammed bin Salman.

The result was that on June 14, 2017, when Bashir turned on Taha and Taha fled to Khartoum’s airport, the Sudanese president couldn’t touch him. The standoff was resolved by senior Saudi officials, who urged Bashir to allow Taha (whose plane was surrounded by soldiers of Bashir’s personal guard) to fly to Riyadh.

Bashir’s tussle with Taha also resulted from Taha’s inability to deliver on the promise he’d made back in 2015, when he told Bashir that Sudan’s alliance with Saudi Arabia would result in better relations with the U.S. That was supposed to include Sudan’s removal from the State Department’s list of countries supporting terrorism.

Not only had that not happened, but Bashir had been shunned during the recent Arab summit in Riyadh, where he’d been hoping to meet with Donald Trump. The White House had made it clear that that wouldn’t happen. As a result, Bashir sent Taha instead. And so it was that, during a break in the meetings, it was Taha and not Bashir who was introduced to the American president. Standing between them was a leading Saudi official. This is Taha Osmen al-Hussein, our good friend from Sudan, the official said. Trump smiled and stuck out his hand. “Nice to meet you,” he said.

sudan.jpg
. :wow:

Saudi Arabia’s Blood Pact With a Genocidal Strongman
 

thatrapsfan

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Nah according to Arab papers Saudis been investing paper and UAE giving in-kind help in addition to the $2bn that was initially deposited by KSA when the mercenaries were sent



Sudan backs Saudi Arabia’s expulsion of Canadian ambassador - Sudan Tribune: Plural news and views on Sudan


This article below was eye-opening on why they're beefing now:





:whoo:



sudan.jpg
. :wow:

Saudi Arabia’s Blood Pact With a Genocidal Strongman

The second article is nonsense, I read it. Not credible at all. Counterpunch style rumours and inaccurate information. I stopped reading when he suggested minerals in Hadhramout were the driving cause behind the GCC's competition in Yemen. All exploration/mining has been on hold since the war started and even then was never that lucrative. Piecing together random tidbits for a grand narrative, this is pure clickbait. The rest was open source stuff that was reported on a long time ago ( Bashirs beef with his advisor and how same guy is now advising MBS)

On my deposit claim, I read it from a Sudanese reporter who is very credible and actually started the Sudan Tribune website.The Saudis claimed they would deposit the 2 billion in 2015 but never actually did it. The Khaleejis are notorious for promising big payments/investments/pledges and not following through, even on their defence contracts with the West. The only confirmed payment from the Gulf to Sudans central bank was this on from the UAE:
 

thatrapsfan

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Low key the Gulfies screwed Bashir, he cut off relations with Iran thinking it would create a windfall, but hes in dire economic straits.

Theyve helped him remove sanctions but that hasnt been enough to reverse his fortunes. The Gulfies got Sudanese troops/manpower for their war at very little costs. Theyre paying the soldiers wages directly (likely at a much lower rate than their own troops) but not much else.

I think the fact he visited Syria on a Russian plane is strong indication this was him trying to test out new waters for support. Hes already done so with Turkey as well with the Suakin port.
@Trajan
 

thatrapsfan

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Not politics related, but for brehs who understand Arabic this is a very entertaining Sudanese YT channel. Theyre funny people.
 

2Quik4UHoes

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Low key the Gulfies screwed Bashir, he cut off relations with Iran thinking it would create a windfall, but hes in dire economic straits.

Theyve helped him remove sanctions but that hasnt been enough to reverse his fortunes. The Gulfies got Sudanese troops/manpower for their war at very little costs. Theyre paying the soldiers wages directly (likely at a much lower rate than their own troops) but not much else.

I think the fact he visited Syria on a Russian plane is strong indication this was him trying to test out new waters for support. Hes already done so with Turkey as well with the Suakin port.
@Trajan

I don’t see how Bashir doesn’t get Mubaraked at this point. As was mentioned, he’s survived attempts, but this is the type of gross mismanagement that gets you booted especially the Sudanese military being turned into cheap cannon fodder for KSA/UAE in Yemen.
 

thatrapsfan

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Sudan protests still raging across the country in many towns. This may be the biggest challenge Bashir has faced in 29 years. They’ve tried to shut down social media/internet but still many images of security forces going all out to try to stop them. One video of anti aircraft guns fired at night as well.
 

Trajan

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Arabic Spring chants for the downfall of the regime after a game of Sudan’s most popular club Al-Hilal

Some analysis about how these protests are different than previous iterations and where this may go:




@Trajan @JDH @2Quik4UHoes


Ash3b yureed asgatha nidaam :ahh:

I love that chant


Bashir might need to seek asylum from Bashar Al-Assad :mjgrin:
 
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