If we are defining AAA by the bar that Rockstar sets in terms of expense, then there are only franchises that fits that criterion. GTA and Fortnite.
I posted this in a recent thread in relation to AAA gaming.
Console | Consoles sold | Development Costs average per game | Average cost of game | Net profit on hypothetical 2 million copies sold |
PS1 | 102M | 1.5M | 49.99 | 98.48M |
PS2 | 155M | 6M | 49.99 | 93.98M |
PS3 | 87M | 20M | 59.99 | 99.98M |
PS4 | 115M | 100M | 59.99 | 19.98M |
PS5 | 100M * | 150M | 69.99 | (10.20)M |
Console sales have been around 200 million every generation, going on three generations now. It's a saturated market. Not to mention, there are many more games out there than before. If you haven't gotten it now in the free to play realm and made it work now, you never will. It's Fortnite, Apex and COD. That's the holy trinity. As I type this, the teenager and the 9 year old are both playing Fortnite. One on his PC, the other on the Switch. Kids all across the world probably did just like my kids did and did the update for the Greek Gods shyt before school. Also about kids, they grow up in a world where they are used to playing games with their friends even if their friends have different devices than they have, minimizing the importance of the box you own. They will say, let's play Fortnite, rather than the console they own.
The financial dynamics screams to put your game everywhere if you need it to directly turn a profit. The platform holders are still selling consoles for the same MSRP than they did when they came out in November 2020. Between Sony and Microsoft, we will be getting like 150M if they are lucky.
The PS5 is slowing down. Good luck selling that PS5 Pro at a decent price this year.
The fact is that Phil Spencer called this future years ago.
Given the fact that he was able to get Satya to agree to spend all of that money for ABK is astounding given the climate we find ourselves in. We see companies laying off left and right. The way is multiplatform. Office 365 is platform agnostic, Azure is platform agnostic. Microsoft Gaming will eventually be that as well. Microsoft has and will continue to use loss leading efforts to integrate into other arenas. They don't care how or where you play their games. Sony has none of those advantages, they need to sell you the console and the console is bleeding them dry. AAA development can cause a developer to miss an entire generation. We got Oblivion and Skyrim on the same console. Elder Scrolls 6 is going to miss this generation. We may not even get a new game that isn't a remake/remaster from Naughty Dog this generation. That's not sustainable, especially in the case of Naught Dog if it is just on one box. We know Elder Scrolls will be day and date on PC and Xbox.
All in all, I would say, in a singular fashion, F2P games killed the AAA industry. More importantly, the engagement that Fortnite garners killed the gaming industry. My aforementioned teenager got a PC for Christmas that you can throw anything at and run it fine, uses it to play Fortnite in a near exclusive fashion. These console boxes are F2P boxes to most gamers. Sure, there are millions of us that still buy traditional AAA games but we are the minority and have been for quite some time.
Microsoft Most Played
Playstation Network Best Selling
Fortnite is number #1 in both. Most of these people nowadays bought a PS5 or an XSX to run Fortnite at 120fps and not to get the next AAA game from Sony or Microsoft. To cushion that understanding, Microsoft has realized that for the fans that are still out there for these types of AA-AAA experiences, they just need to put these games everywhere. It sounds like the new Sony CEO understands that too. AAA games will continue, but they will just be everywhere now. Era of exclusivity from everyone but Nintendo is nearly over.