Vibrant emerging 'middle class' parties threaten old order in Mozambique, Angola
23 JUL 2014 16:35LEE MWITI
Elections in these two post-conflict countries have always been contested by the Big Two. Not any more.
Supporters of Mozambique ruling party Frelimo. Elections in Angola and Mozambique have always been straight contests between two dominant parties. This may be changing. (Photo, AFP)
As Mozambique heads for its fifth presidential election in October, a new party that is creating a rare buzz in a country that has only known electoral contests between its two dominant former armed movements will be closely watched.
Formed only in March 2009, the Movimento Democrático de Moçambique (MDM) in elections held seven months later went on to bag eight parliamentary seats. The party also controls the local authorities in two of the country’s largest cities.
While the ruling Frente de Libertação de Moçambique (Frelimo) is widely expected to win, the emergence of MDM as a counterweight to the struggling main opposition Renamo party will provide the refreshing storyline in an election that looks to follow the script of the last two ballots.
Frelimo has won all elections since the civil war ended in 1992, in large part due to its liberation movement credentials but also because of the inability of the former guerrilla force Renamo to offer an alternative to voters weary of the ruling party’s hegemony.
At its peak Renamo was the largest opposition party in Africa before Zimbabwe’s MDC came along, and in the 1994 and 1999 elections almost matched Frelimo vote for vote. But the next two elections saw it fall away dramatically, and in 2009 the Afonso Dhlakama-led party managed only 18% of the vote.
Its plunge is attributed to Dhlakama’s failure to transform from a guerrilla fighter into an effective opposition leader, opening the door for its splinter party, the Daviz Simango-led MDM, to gain growing support at its expense.
Renamo’s strength in the last election rapidly shrunk from 90 seats to 51, with the added pain that the MDM’s showing would feasibly have been even better if electoral authorities had allowed it to contest in all the constituencies.
To compound matters for the hard on its luck Renamo, Frelimo in the same election grew its share to 191 seats, from 160 in 2004.
In addition to those disillusioned by Renamo’s—and to an extent Frelimo—failings, the MDM has been intriguing Mozambique’s emerging middle class, as resource billions start to roll in.
Dealt a major blow
MDM in 2008 won municipal elections in Beira, the country’s second largest city, where Simango is now the mayor. To further unsettle Renamo, MDM in December 2011 won another city, Quelimane, which is the administrative capital of Zambezia, the country’s richest province. Both cities had been Renamo bastions.
To a large part Renamo has aided MDM’s rapid emergence. Simango joined Renamo in 1997 and was elected Beira mayor on its ticket in 2003. Renamo, alarmed by his growing profile, refused to renew his candidacy, spurring his departure. He was re-elected on the MDM based on his service delivery record, dealing a major blow to Dhlakama.
To further shake things up, the youthful Simango, who has no war credentials, and who survived an assassination bid blamed on Renamo but which the party denied, is a Protestant in a country where everyone else is either Catholic or Muslim.
Simango’s father Uria was the first vice-president of Frelimo but was assassinated as a dissident during the brutal civil war, having lost out in a struggle for Frelimo leadership.
MDM will be looking to shore up its vote and emerge as a serious alternative to both Frelimo and Renamo and will seek to leverage on the non-war image of Simango.
MDM’s main challenge to even bigger inroads has been the claim that it is funded by international donors, a perception important for a country that fought a liberation war against former colonial master Portugal, even if Renamo also owes its creation to white Rhodesian officers.
Frelimo is firmly in the driving seat, but with MDM’s gains it will give short shrift to the complacency that had crept within its ranks following Renamo’s sharp decline.
Mirrored in Angola
This narrative of a splinter party from a major armed movement making political gains is also mirrored in Angola, where the Broad Convergence for the Salvation of Angola—Electoral Coalition (CASA-CE) made waves in 2012 elections.
CASA-CE split from Unita, the main Angolan opposition party, in March 2012, and went on to garner eight seats in the National Assembly.
The ruling Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) won 175 seats in the assembly, with Unita managing 32 seats—itself a doubling of its tally from the previous election.
CASA-CE was formed after its leader Abel Chivukuvuku lost out in the internal battle for control of Unita to Isaías Samakuva following the death of Jonas Savimbi in 2002.
Samakuva, in contrast to Dhlakama, has worked hard to transform Unita into a democratic and political force, helping to turn around its fortunes, but has, like Renamo, found the transition stymied by a lack of funds, and the immense patronage system enjoyed by MPLA.
This has opened the door for Chivukuvuku to tap the middle class and intellectuals, and the growing disillusionment with the failure of resource cash to trickle down to the ordinary Angolan—37% did not vote in 2012.
In Mozambique, MDA will hope it can have an even bigger say in October elections and upend the unsettled Renamo.
Dhlakama is in hiding in his Satunjira stronghold, from where he has instigated cycles of deadly unrest with the hope of drawing concessions from the ruling Frelimo.
But given he has no capacity to lead a major rebellion, his guerrilla warfare default setting looks to have been solely reactivated to allow him to remain relevant. But for most Mozambicans, a continuation of the successful post-conflict period will be higher up their priorities.
Twitter: @LMAfrican
Essential The Africa the Media Doesn't Tell You About
- Thread starter TommyHilltrigga
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Nigerian made computer.
http://veda.com.ng/
there is a new generation of Nigerians known as repats. They say they are 16,000 Nigerians returning from the western world every month! They are taking their skills and returning to Nigeria. many of the business your seeing in this thread is set up by repats. This is why I laugh when i hear people say there is no hope for blacks.
This is to aspire coli brethren to take the leap. start the video from 1:35 to 5:35
As of lately I have been in a more charity giving mindset and been thinking more about stop being selfish and solely worrying about myself and also thinking about my relatives in Jamaica...I'm really thinking about learning more about this laptop and sending it down to Jamaica....I hope when whichever cousin in Jamaica I send it to...when they find out its Nigerian....they have better sense to say idiotic things like bringing up "Nigerian scam artists" like a bunch of fools....
Its funny cause I remember discussing with another member on here months ago how we both had our Toshibas burned out and how crappy the company seems to be for laptops....and discussing Macbooks being better......now I would feel messed up to go with America or Japanese products when there is an alternative to helping our Brothers in the Diaspora East of this country....
TommyHilltrigga
Here comes THE BOOM!
Nigeria Seen by McKinsey in World’s Top 20 Economies by 2030
By Yinka Ibukun and Amogelang Mbatha Jul 24, 2014 9:24 AM ET
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Nigeria has the potential to be one of the world’s top 20 economies by 2030 with a consumer base exceeding the current populations of France and Germany, according to McKinsey & Co.
Africa’s biggest economy may expand about 7.1 percent a year through 2030, boosting gross domestic product to $1.6 trillion, possibly pushing it above Netherlands, Thailand and Malaysia, the New York-based company said in a report today. About 60 percent of Nigeria’s estimated population of 273 million by then may live in households earning more than $7,500 a year, fueling a consumer boom, McKinsey said.
“Nigeria has a very positive outlook,” Acha Leke, co-author of the report, said in an interview with BloombergTV Africa in Johannesburg. “The most important thing that needs to be done to get it there is execution” of government policies.
As Africa’s largest oil producer with a population of about 170 million, Nigeria has consistently posted annual growth rates in excess of 4 percent over the past decade. That’s spurred foreign investors such as Unilever Plc (ULVR), Nestle SA (NESN) and Shoprite Holdings Ltd. (SHP) to expand operations despite an upsurge in violence by militants in the north.
Based on McKinsey’s growth estimates for the economy, annual sales in consumer goods could more than triple to $1.4 trillion by 2030 from $388 billion currently, it said.
Retail Boom
The retail and wholesale trade industry will probably become the largest contributer to Nigerian growth by then and 35 million households are expected to earn more than $7,500 a year, according to the report.
While oil accounts for 70 percent of government revenue and most of Nigeria’s export earnings, its share of the economy has waned. After the statistics office overhauled its GDP data in April, oil’s contribution to economic growth between 2010 and 2013 was 5.1 percent, compared with 14 percent for manufacturing and 20 percent for trade, according to McKinsey.
The Nigerian Stock Exchange All-Share Index (NGSEINDX) has gained 2.9 percent this year, adding to its 47 percent surge in 2013. The naira has dropped 1.1 percent against the dollar since January.
McKinsey’s estimate of Nigeria’s growth potential comes with significant caveats. The government needs to address poverty, lower the cost of basic services, such as housing and energy, expand electricity supply and boost productivity in farming, according to the report.
Stability Risk
“If execution doesn’t happen there’s actually a big risk for the country, even from a security stability perspective, to create jobs and lift millions of people out of poverty,” Leke said. “That has to be a big focus, to grow in a way that is inclusive.”
The most recent poverty survey by Nigeria’s statistics agency, published in 2012, showed that 61 percent of Nigerians were living on less than a dollar a day in 2010, up from 52 percent in 2004.Life expectancy is 54 years, eight years lower than in Ghana and 20 years below Brazil, according to McKinsey.
“The policy world, economists can build all manner of scenarios,” Folarin Gbadebo-Smith, managing director for Lagos-based Center for Public Policy Alternatives, said by phone. “It’s a totally disconnected discussion between what we can be and what we will be.” The outcome “depends on what our government does,” he said.
To contact the reporters on this story: Yinka Ibukun in Lagos at yibukun@bloomberg.net; Amogelang Mbatha in Johannesburg at ambatha@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Antony Sguazzin at asguazzin@bloomberg.netNasreen Seria, Sarah McGregor
By Yinka Ibukun and Amogelang Mbatha Jul 24, 2014 9:24 AM ET
1 Comment Email Print
Save
Related
Nigeria has the potential to be one of the world’s top 20 economies by 2030 with a consumer base exceeding the current populations of France and Germany, according to McKinsey & Co.
Africa’s biggest economy may expand about 7.1 percent a year through 2030, boosting gross domestic product to $1.6 trillion, possibly pushing it above Netherlands, Thailand and Malaysia, the New York-based company said in a report today. About 60 percent of Nigeria’s estimated population of 273 million by then may live in households earning more than $7,500 a year, fueling a consumer boom, McKinsey said.
“Nigeria has a very positive outlook,” Acha Leke, co-author of the report, said in an interview with BloombergTV Africa in Johannesburg. “The most important thing that needs to be done to get it there is execution” of government policies.
As Africa’s largest oil producer with a population of about 170 million, Nigeria has consistently posted annual growth rates in excess of 4 percent over the past decade. That’s spurred foreign investors such as Unilever Plc (ULVR), Nestle SA (NESN) and Shoprite Holdings Ltd. (SHP) to expand operations despite an upsurge in violence by militants in the north.
Based on McKinsey’s growth estimates for the economy, annual sales in consumer goods could more than triple to $1.4 trillion by 2030 from $388 billion currently, it said.
Retail Boom
The retail and wholesale trade industry will probably become the largest contributer to Nigerian growth by then and 35 million households are expected to earn more than $7,500 a year, according to the report.
While oil accounts for 70 percent of government revenue and most of Nigeria’s export earnings, its share of the economy has waned. After the statistics office overhauled its GDP data in April, oil’s contribution to economic growth between 2010 and 2013 was 5.1 percent, compared with 14 percent for manufacturing and 20 percent for trade, according to McKinsey.
The Nigerian Stock Exchange All-Share Index (NGSEINDX) has gained 2.9 percent this year, adding to its 47 percent surge in 2013. The naira has dropped 1.1 percent against the dollar since January.
McKinsey’s estimate of Nigeria’s growth potential comes with significant caveats. The government needs to address poverty, lower the cost of basic services, such as housing and energy, expand electricity supply and boost productivity in farming, according to the report.
Stability Risk
“If execution doesn’t happen there’s actually a big risk for the country, even from a security stability perspective, to create jobs and lift millions of people out of poverty,” Leke said. “That has to be a big focus, to grow in a way that is inclusive.”
The most recent poverty survey by Nigeria’s statistics agency, published in 2012, showed that 61 percent of Nigerians were living on less than a dollar a day in 2010, up from 52 percent in 2004.Life expectancy is 54 years, eight years lower than in Ghana and 20 years below Brazil, according to McKinsey.
“The policy world, economists can build all manner of scenarios,” Folarin Gbadebo-Smith, managing director for Lagos-based Center for Public Policy Alternatives, said by phone. “It’s a totally disconnected discussion between what we can be and what we will be.” The outcome “depends on what our government does,” he said.
To contact the reporters on this story: Yinka Ibukun in Lagos at yibukun@bloomberg.net; Amogelang Mbatha in Johannesburg at ambatha@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Antony Sguazzin at asguazzin@bloomberg.netNasreen Seria, Sarah McGregor
TommyHilltrigga
Here comes THE BOOM!
Published Since May 29, 1968
Nigeria’s Poverty Level Drops By 2.1 Percent - World Bank
Last Modified: 07/24/2014 17:19:13
ABUJA - The World Bank says poverty rate in Nigeria has dropped from 35.2 per cent of population in 2010 / 2011 to 33.1 per cent in 2012 / 2013.
Mr John Litwack, the bank’s Acting Country Manager and Lead Economist, stated this during a media launch of the Nigeria Economic Report in Abuja.
Litwack said that the decrease represents a dramatic drop from an estimated poverty rate of 62.2 per cent recorded between 2009 and 2010 based on the Harmonised Nigeria Living Standard Statistics (HNLSS).
“ The poverty rates per capital from the General Household Survey (GHS) panel between 2012 and 2013 is 33.1 per cent with 44.9 per cent in the rural areas and 12.6 per cent in the urban areas.
“ This indicates lower poverty rates compared to 35.2 per cent recorded between 2010 and 2011 with 46.3 per cent in the rural areas and 15.8 per cent in the urban centre,’’ Litwack said.
He said that an estimated 60 per cent of the Nigerian population lived below 140 per cent of the poverty line, which is close to two dollars per day.
Explaining the disparities between poverty level in the Southern and Northern Nigeria, Litwack said there appeared to be higher poverty rate in the Northern part than in the Southern parts of the country.
“The number of poor Nigerians has remained 58 million, more than half of which live in the North East or North West of the country.
“While the South and North Central experienced declines in the poverty rate between 2010 to 2011and 2012 to 2013, the poverty rate increased in the North East and remained almost unchanged in the North West,’’ he said.
On the employment level in the country, he said that employment remained a critical problem in the country.
Nigeria’s Poverty Level Drops By 2.1 Percent - World Bank
Last Modified: 07/24/2014 17:19:13
ABUJA - The World Bank says poverty rate in Nigeria has dropped from 35.2 per cent of population in 2010 / 2011 to 33.1 per cent in 2012 / 2013.
Mr John Litwack, the bank’s Acting Country Manager and Lead Economist, stated this during a media launch of the Nigeria Economic Report in Abuja.
Litwack said that the decrease represents a dramatic drop from an estimated poverty rate of 62.2 per cent recorded between 2009 and 2010 based on the Harmonised Nigeria Living Standard Statistics (HNLSS).
“ The poverty rates per capital from the General Household Survey (GHS) panel between 2012 and 2013 is 33.1 per cent with 44.9 per cent in the rural areas and 12.6 per cent in the urban areas.
“ This indicates lower poverty rates compared to 35.2 per cent recorded between 2010 and 2011 with 46.3 per cent in the rural areas and 15.8 per cent in the urban centre,’’ Litwack said.
He said that an estimated 60 per cent of the Nigerian population lived below 140 per cent of the poverty line, which is close to two dollars per day.
Explaining the disparities between poverty level in the Southern and Northern Nigeria, Litwack said there appeared to be higher poverty rate in the Northern part than in the Southern parts of the country.
“The number of poor Nigerians has remained 58 million, more than half of which live in the North East or North West of the country.
“While the South and North Central experienced declines in the poverty rate between 2010 to 2011and 2012 to 2013, the poverty rate increased in the North East and remained almost unchanged in the North West,’’ he said.
On the employment level in the country, he said that employment remained a critical problem in the country.
Dreamestorical
Pro
The name "Nigeria' does not carry a lot of good will at the moment, due to the medias insistence on showcasing anything negative that comes out of the country. As Nigeria's economy and influence continues to strengthen, things will change.
Dreamestorical
Pro
Lagos, Nigeria
Dreamestorical
Pro
our PR this year has been awful
yeah it has been... its sad that the good things that have been taking place in Nigeria are being overlooked.
Examples like Nigeria's economy becoming by far the largest in Africa, reduction in poverty, growth of Nigeria's middle class, rise of Nollywood, the further rise and strengthening of Nigeria's banks, The pension reform, which turned around the nations accrued retirement savings from a deficit of -12 billion to 27 billion dollars today. The gradual diversification of our economy, the fact that Manufacturing is finally leading our economic growth, Eko atlantic city finally constructing the buildings to the ground breaking opening of the Abuja centenary city, the governments auto policy which now has 30 car/truck manufacturing plants being set up around the country, privatization of the energy sector, the great success of the local content policy in the oil and gas sector e.t.c
so much is going on at the moment. Though at the end of the day the media prefers bad news when it comes to Africa.
Dreamestorical
Pro
Some time ago i showcaased Nigeriaas first made APC vehicle.
made in Nigeria Igirigi Apc
Now our military boys have made vast improvements. Here is a pic of made in Nigeria igirigi APC version 2, in Maiduguri, Borno state.
made in Nigeria Igirigi Apc
Now our military boys have made vast improvements. Here is a pic of made in Nigeria igirigi APC version 2, in Maiduguri, Borno state.
TMNT4000
Superstar
Hey do Nigeria own their own media or does it have western media influence?
Also what's your opinion on the Ebola crisis in West Africa?
Dreamestorical
Pro
Nigeria runs her own media. From news to music, movies and tv shows. Though Nigerians are having increasing access to stations like BBC and CNN due to gradual increase in the nations wealth.
Now in regards to the ebola crisis, I believe it will be contained. The reason it was spreading quickly initially was due to ignorance. An example is there was a case in Liberia where an individual was infected by the disease and was quarantined in a hospital. The family members of the individual broke into the hospital and took the affected individual with them back to their village so that they could administer treatment through the use of native doctors. The end result was the individual, the family members, the native doctor and a good chunk of the village ended up dying from the disease.
The good news is now a lot of people are getting educated about the virus so its just a matter of time until they get it under control.
Dreamestorical
Pro
EKO ATLANTIC CITY, Nigeria
Afren Headquarters
Eko Atlantic Roads
EKo Boulevard Walk way
Eko Atlantic waterway under construction
Afren Headquarters
Eko Atlantic Roads
EKo Boulevard Walk way
Eko Atlantic waterway under construction