Why Dolphins can win AFC East
Better weapons for Ryan Tannehill and an improved defense will help Miami
Updated: September 5, 2013, 2:32 PM ET
By
KC Joyner | ESPN Insider
AP Photo/Lynne SladkyRyan Tannehill has a new downfield threat in Mike Wallace this season.
Since the NFL changed to an eight-division format in 2002, no team in the league has won as many division titles as the
New England Patriots (nine).
The Patriots have been dominant in part because of their historically strong rosters, but some of their domination also has to do with the relatively weak state of the AFC East. This division has contributed only four wild-card playoff teams under this format, a total that ranks sixth out of the eight divisions. Every other division has had at least two different teams claim a wild-card spot, while the AFC East has had one (
New York Jets).
This means the AFC East has been a two-team race over the past decade, and not much of a race at that. But the 2013 season could see a change in the status quo, as the
Miami Dolphins have a good chance to win the division.
Miami's upward-mobility case starts with quarterback
Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill isn't currently thought of as one of the better downfield passers in the NFL, but his 14.2-yard mark in the stretch vertical yards per attempt (SVYPA) metric that gauges productivity on aerials thrown 20 or more yards downfield ranked ninth last season.
Tannehill combined that superb downfield number with a 2.1 percent mark in the bad decision rate (BDR) metric. BDR measures how often a passer makes a mental error that leads to a turnover opportunity for the opposing team. Anything under the 2.0 percent mark in this metric is considered a sign of excellence in general and that goes double for someone who can do so while succeeding at hitting riskier long passes.
Miami's stretch vertical attack should be even better in 2013 with the addition of wide receiver
Mike Wallace. A good amount of Wallace's decline since 2011 can be attributed to quarterback injuries and the installation of
Todd Haley's offensive system, so Wallace should be a lot closer to his 2011 production, given the change of scenery.
The Dolphins also have
Brian Hartline, who may be the most underrated wide receiver in the NFL. Last season, Hartline racked up a 12.2-yard mark in the vertical yards per attempt (VYPA) metric that gauges productivity on passes thrown 11 or more yards downfield. He did this on a total of 66 vertical targets, posting better vertical numbers than
Roddy White (11.9 VYPA on 70 targets),
Eric Decker (11.3 VYPA on 60 targets),
A.J. Green (10.7 VYPA on 75 targets) and
Brandon Marshall (10.0 VYPA on 83 targets). If Hartline and Wallace play up their potential, Miami will have one of the league's best 1-2 downfield passing punches.
[+] Enlarge
Joel Auerbach/Getty ImagesLamar Miller will be Miami's starting RB.
The Fins' rushing attack could be nearly as powerful. Last season, Miami posted a 51.6 percent mark in the good blocking rate (GBR) metric that tallies how often an offense gives its ball carriers good blocking (very roughly defined as not allowing the defense to disrupt a rush attempt). That total (which ranked second in the league) could end up dropping a bit due to the offseason offensive line personnel changes, but the free-agent addition of
Tyson Clabo and the
recent signing of former first-round draft pick
Danny Watkins should help Miami keep a top-10 figure in this statistic.
The running game should also benefit from
Lamar Miller's skills. His 7.4-yard mark in the good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric was sixth-tenths of a yard higher than Miami's overall GBYPA (6.8). This was on a small sample size (51 carries), but it still indicates Miller is capable of doing more with good blocking than the other Miami backs did last year.
This potentially powerful offense is combined with some strong suits on defense. The Dolphins ended last season ranked 10th in sacks per pass attempt (7.0 percent), according to ESPN Stats & Information. It is possible that number could be improved upon now that Miami has the pass-rushing talents of No. 3 overall draft pick
Dion Jordan.
The secondary could also be much improved with the addition of cornerback
Brent Grimes. Grimes missed nearly the entire 2012 season with an Achilles injury but ranked tied for second in the league in cornerback YPA (4.0) in 2011, so he has elite skills when healthy.
Dimitri Patterson will man the other cornerback position. He may not have quite the coverage upside that Grimes brings to the table, but Patterson was good enough to post a 6.5 YPA last year (ranked tied for 19th in that metric).
Miami's defense was superb last year against the run, as the 2.9 mark in the good blocking productivity (GBP) metric that gauges overall rushing defense prowess tied the Dolphins for third in the league. A repeat of that performance looks to be quite possible, given that the Dolphins acquired
Philip Wheeler and
Dannell Ellerbe, two linebackers who graded out with exceptional "5" run defense ratings in their
Scouts, Inc. free-agent write-ups.
The Dolphins showcased plenty of special-teams prowess last season, as ESPN Stats & Information credited the club with 15.76 expected points added by that platoon (ranked sixth). Miami is returning many of its most impactful special-teams contributors from last year, including punter
Brandon Fields and returner
Marcus Thigpen, so this part of its game should be strong once again.
With this level of talent, Miami could probably compete for a title in most divisions, but the Dolphins get an additional benefit from playing in a division that has two teams with significant issues at quarterback (Jets and Bills).
This combination of factors may not make the Dolphins the favorites to win the AFC East, but it wouldn't be a shock to see them go toe-to-toe with the Patriots for the division crown and potentially knock the perennial champions off of the throne.