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Analysis | Why is Mitch McConnell still calling for a health-care vote?
What Mitch McConnell is doing next on health care, explained
Sean Sullivan - The Washington Post - Tuesday, July 18, 2017
For Mitch McConnell, Monday night was as embarrassing a blow as they come for a Senate majority leader. Two more Republican senators came out against his bill to overhaul the Affordable Care Act, effectively dooming the latest version. That forced the Kentucky Republican to confront a difficult question with no good options: What now?
The answer he came up with and then articulated in a 90-word written statement was essentially a dare.
McConnell practically challenged conservative critics of the bill to vote against moving the process ahead. How? By publicly dangling in front of them what they have said they wanted if the current effort falls apart: a so-called clean repeal of the law known as Obamacare, with a two-year delay to come up with a replacement.
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But there is a catch: to get that vote, they will now have vote to proceed to consideration of the House-passed repeal and replace bill, which Senate GOP leaders have been trying to reconcile with their own version (through an arcane procedural tactic known appropriately as budget reconciliation).
If hard-right conservative senators vote no on proceeding with the bill and it collapses, McConnell can come back at them and say, “Well, you had your chance at the ‘clean repeal’ you demanded. And you decided not to take it.” He will have shifted some of the blame onto others and given himself a new talking point to counter the “clean repeal” crowd — which includes President Trump.
If they vote yes — hey, they’re suddenly back on track, at the table debating legislation with at least some chance of passing.
But don’t count on the latter scenario ever happening. Why?
Because even if the Senate got to a clean repeal vote, it wouldn’t likely have the votes to pass. So why would the conservatives go out on a limb for something that isn’t expected to actually become law?
Sure, it passed back in 2015. But the stakes were lower back then. Barack Obama was president and he wasn’t ever going to sign a bill that undid his signature law. So Republicans were free to vote for it with little on the line.
Now, there’s a lot on the line — which is why moderate Republicans have openly worried the current Senate bill goes too far in attacking Obamacare. How are they supposed to support a more aggressive repeal?
What’s less clear at this point is McConnell’s longer game. If this doesn’t work out, will he move on to other matters? Follow through on his threats to work with Democrats and narrower reforms, which were seen as ways to try to pressure conservatives not to let this fail? We’ll find out soon.
There are no longer any good outcomes for McConnell — politically speaking. There are bad ones and less bad ones. And putting the onus on other senators means there will be more blame to go around when this all ends.