Disclosure
Pro
That's what I don't get. They'll lose the German gas pipeline, get sanctions out the ass, oligarchs will lose their US based assets (Biden will make sure they're seized)...where are the benefits?
Ukraine and Belarus border the Central Federal District, which is where Moscow is located. If NATO gets a foothold in Ukraine, its over for them because there is nothing but flat land from there to Moscow. The Russians would have lost WW3 without firing a single shot. For the Russian government/military the threat is existential. They HAVE to get a security guarantee of some sort from the west or they have to invade. For us it would be the equivalent of seeing Russian and Chinese troops in North Carolina. From their POV, they have more to lose from NOT invading and just letting NATO roll into Ukraine. Its more important then money.