Russia's Invasion of Ukraine (Official Thread)

[chineebai]

Guy just showed a beautiful chart that since a peak in 2007, the US is energy independent

I am relatively bullish on us energy especially when Biden releases more reserves this summer which I'm sure will happen.

Not financial advice

The market agrees with your assessment since dec 2021. Huge play into energy for quite some time now.

 

[phcitywarrior]

On a conference call with a very large global bank and their strategy chair, related to global impacts as a result.

*I am not an investment advisor and this is hearsay and conjecture.

Couple bullet points

• Ukraine is not gonna win this thing unless NATO oversteps and defends Ukraine. It's a matter of time, even with Russia's major casualties
• The rest of Europe has gone very green and as such as depended on Russian oil (it's equal at this point) so Germany and France and Italy are really vulnerable to oil impacts
• The US has been exporting natural gas to Europe, to make up for Russia's production reducing in 2021/2022. USA, Qatar, Russia, and Nigeria are top sources.
• European energy consumption is oil reliant because of its use (industrial, transport). Residential and commercial has gone natural gas and renewable. But industry and transport drives heavy carbon footprint energy.
• Russian might divert a million barrels per day to China to make up for lost buyers/demand
• $100-125 a Barrel is going to happen, and for a while. $125 is probably not enough to cause global recess but be cautious with $150.

I'll pause here because now it's a general economic update and will add if more applies to the topic at hand

Please provide more updates. Enjoying them so far.

I don't see the Russians folding even with the sanctions. They're going to pivot to the Chinese CIPS system and link their own internal SPFS system with India, Pakistan and across Eurasia. You'll see them try to make up with other maneuvers to bypass SWIFT, such as barter trade which Iran uses. The Chinese yuan becomes more internationalized.

Probably will have a lot of the GLobal South join this system while still being in SWIFT.

The bypassing of the dollar is going to be super-charged now. More acceleration of what they been doing.

This. Countries have been looking to distance themselves from the dollar for a while now. Even Jamie Dimon (CEO of JP Morgan) advised the US not to kick Russia off SWIFT as there could be some serious unintended consequences e.g. the rise of CIPS. If Russia gets on CIPS and can still operate, then other countries will follow suit.

This probably gonna be the biggest outcome of all of this. With the digital yuan as well, we are in for some interesting times.

"Will this make the Fed pause rate hikes"

"No. I don't think so."

EDIT - He did mention that unless it becomes a shooting war between NATO and Russia.

• 7 rate hikes projected in next 12 months, each 25bps
  • Pay your revolving debt off brehs. I cannot reiterate this enough
• Inflation: typically there is a direct correlation between goods inflation, and services inflation...it is shockingly divided now (the chart has goods inflation at 12%, services at a paltry 3.5%). [Personally I find this really intruging...and I think is more fixable because of it...]

Still away from the Ukraine topic so I'll again pause. Really interesting stuff though.

Been telling folks this. Now is not the time to still be holding CC debt or just debt in general.

 

[BigMoneyGrip]

china can just sit on its ass getting stronger and stronger. amazing thing to see

Negative

 

[Cuban Pete]

And as I'm learning on this Russia is depending on China to buy it's biggest exports (oil, wheat, palladium), and since Russia is so isolated, china just got a desperate dependant vendor.

Wouldnt be surprised to see the Communist Party of Russia come back and make them a full blown vassal of the Chinese if the ruling party gets knocked off by these sanction and possible internal strife. China came out with the big W

 

[FreshFromATL]

"Will this make the Fed pause rate hikes"

"No. I don't think so."

EDIT - He did mention that unless it becomes a shooting war between NATO and Russia.

• 7 rate hikes projected in next 12 months, each 25bps
  • Pay your revolving debt off brehs. I cannot reiterate this enough
• Inflation: typically there is a direct correlation between goods inflation, and services inflation...it is shockingly divided now (the chart has goods inflation at 12%, services at a paltry 3.5%). [Personally I find this really intruging...and I think is more fixable because of it...]

Still away from the Ukraine topic so I'll again pause. Really interesting stuff though.

keep dropping the info bruh. All this shyt related now one way or the other.

 

[R=G]

 

[MoneyTron]

I don't think Russia turning to China is any surprise. However, relying on them to prop up the Russian economy is a dobule edged sword, especially if Putin's goal is to create an independent Russian Empire.

The Chinese will definitely not consider Russia as equals in that scenario. Putin knows that. Which is why he's in deep shyt right now.

 

[phcitywarrior]

Global de-dollarization would spell bad times for people here in the US. If countries don’t hold USD, it comes rushing back to the USA.

Hyper inflation anyone?

 

[LurkMoar]

I don't think Russia turning to China is any surprise. However, relying on them to prop up the Russian economy is a dobule edged sword, especially if Putin's goal is to create an independent Russian Empire.

The Chinese will definitely not consider Russia as equals in that scenario. Putin knows that. Which is why he's in deep shyt right now.

He’s not gonna have any choice at this point, Russian reserves can survive maybe 1 month of this economic blockade… after that

 

[LurkMoar]

Global de-dollarization would spell bad times for people here in the US. If countries don’t hold USD, it comes rushing back to the USA.

Hyper inflation anyone?

Exactly there gonna be major consequences we haven’t thought about coming down the pipe in the near future

 

[Ed MOTHEREFFING G]

Does anyone know if AWS is the backbone of any/many Russian sites or web platforms?

 

[Arithmetic]

an injured animal.

They're so behind on what is happening

 

[Zime]

 

[ADevilYouKhow]

Russian Company Outsourced The Main Components In EV Chargers To A Ukrainian Company, Hilarity Ensues

Teen who tracked Elon Musk's plane launches Russian Oligarch Jets account

 

[☑︎#VoteDemocrat]