Russia's Invasion of Ukraine (Official Thread)

[Ed MOTHEREFFING G]

Spoiler: Continued

"Will this make the Fed pause rate hikes"

"No. I don't think so."

EDIT - He did mention that unless it becomes a shooting war between NATO and Russia.

• 7 rate hikes projected in next 12 months, each 25bps
  • Pay your revolving debt off brehs. I cannot reiterate this enough
• Inflation: typically there is a direct correlation between goods inflation, and services inflation...it is shockingly divided now (the chart has goods inflation at 12%, services at a paltry 3.5%). [Personally I find this really intruging...and I think is more fixable because of it...]

Still away from the Ukraine topic so I'll again pause. Really interesting stuff though.

"How popular is this war in Russia?"

• It doesn't seem to be especially with more effective sanctions than Iran ever saw, but in an authoritarian regime, it might not matter.

 

[Wargames]

Russia fukked up bad….

Is Android all they have now?

 

[Ed MOTHEREFFING G]

Russia fukked up bad….

Is Android all they have now?

Like I said yesterday the entire world cancelled Russia.

I'm certainly impressed. All industry is saying fukk you to them, and if it wasn't Putin this battle would've stopped Monday morning. They're absolutely isolated and are being sanctioned and free-handed back to 80s

 

[Rickdogg44]

Russia fukked up bad….

Is Android all they have now?

Beats by Bruce Lee

 

[Neo. The Only. The One.]

brehs read this thread

Yep, I can believe it.

But Russia is a superpower

 

[Ed MOTHEREFFING G]

Beats by Bruce Lee

Those Air Xiaodan shoes on DECK

 

[neverchipsin4weed]

if Russia pushes through with this invasion - instead of going through with trying to outright occupy it, Putin may end up living with leaving Ukraine fractured - divided up between government and rebel forces. Like Afghanistan.

he doesn’t consider it a country, and definitely doesn’t want it being elevated as part of EU or NATO. Putin wants to shatter it before he dies

 

[Baka's Weird Case]

Those Air Xiaodan shoes on DECK

actually saw an elderly chinese woman in the grocery store with an air xiaodan jacket the other day

 

[King Kreole]

I don't see the Russians folding even with the sanctions. They're going to pivot to the Chinese CIPS system and link their own internal SPFS system with India, Pakistan and across Eurasia. You'll see them try to make up with other maneuvers to bypass SWIFT, such as barter trade which Iran uses. The Chinese yuan becomes more internationalized.

Probably will have a lot of the GLobal South join this system while still being in SWIFT.

The bypassing of the dollar is going to be super-charged now. More acceleration of what they been doing.

Yep, China is lowkey coming out of this strongly. We're seeing the dilution of the traditional dollar-led international economic order into a bifurcated economic system. Multipolar world indeed.

 

[Ed MOTHEREFFING G]

Yep, China is lowkey coming out of this strongly. We're seeing the dilution of the traditional dollar-led international economic order into a bifurcated economic system. Multipolar world indeed.

And as I'm learning on this Russia is depending on China to buy it's biggest exports (oil, wheat, palladium), and since Russia is so isolated, china just got a desperate dependant vendor.

 

[Ed MOTHEREFFING G]

actually saw an elderly chinese woman in the grocery store with an air xiaodan jacket the other day

Hall of Fame bootlegs

 

[Ed MOTHEREFFING G]

Guy just showed a beautiful chart that since a peak in 2007, the US is energy independent

I am relatively bullish on us energy especially when Biden releases more reserves this summer which I'm sure will happen.

Not financial advice

EDIT: a couple of opinions were provided whether Putin is posturing regarding nuclear activity but, this guy is an economic strategist, not a millitary expert so I put little weight on that. The US has millitary commitments all the way up to the Baltics, but NATO has to make tough decisions as to what commitments it will and won't make.

Also said that cyber/anti cyber battles are real, and that the energy grid should have an eye on it. The problem is we in the public find out about this stuff many months later.

Ending now.

Glad you guys appreciated this. I'll slickly do this again in related calls, to get an IB perspective on everything.

 

[FAH1223]

And as I'm learning on this Russia is depending on China to buy it's biggest exports (oil, wheat, palladium), and since Russia is so isolated, china just got a desperate dependant vendor.

Yeah if someone wants to buy Russian oil and gas with CIPS, payment must be in the Chinese yuan. If in SPFS, in rubles. If barter trade, gold or some other goods?

 

[NZA]

china can just sit on its ass getting stronger and stronger. amazing thing to see

 

[LurkMoar]

I don't see the Russians folding even with the sanctions. They're going to pivot to the Chinese CIPS system and link their own internal SPFS system with India, Pakistan and across Eurasia. You'll see them try to make up with other maneuvers to bypass SWIFT, such as barter trade which Iran uses. The Chinese yuan becomes more internationalized.

Probably will have a lot of the GLobal South join this system while still being in SWIFT.

The bypassing of the dollar is going to be super-charged now. More acceleration of what they been doing.

brehs pay attention to this!! World order changing before our very eyes