Russia's Invasion of Ukraine (Official Thread)

Cynic

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This must be the propaganda you’re used to since you don’t have access to quality western education anymore


Anyhoo, Russias economy is growing because it’s on an unsustainable war footing, they recently raised their interest rates to 21% the highest in history and have an inflation of 8.5%

Central Bank raises rates two percentage points to record 21%

At Friday’s board meeting the Central Bank hiked interest rates by two percentage points to 21%. That’s the highest level in modern Russian history. And that’s not the end: the Central Bank indicated the rate could go even higher.

  • “Inflation is significantly higher than the Bank of Russia’s June forecast. Inflationary expectations continue to increase. The growth of domestic demand significantly outpaces the scope to expand the supply of goods and services. Additional budget expenditures and the associated deficit in the 2024 Federal Budget also have a pro-inflationary effect,” the Central Bank in a statement.
  • This level of interest rate is unprecedented. Even in the days after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, rates went no higher than 20%. Most economists expected a rate rise at this Friday’s meeting, but most thought it would go no higher than 20%.
  • The main reason for the decision was recent clarity about state spending plans for 2024 and 2025 (the 2024 deficit is expected to be 3.3 trillion rubles or 1.7% of GDP, compared with a planned 0.9%). And inflation shows no sign of slowing.
  • In its press release the Central Bank stated that it: “allows for the possibility of raising the base rate at the next meeting.” Based on the Central Bank’s forecast for the average rate at the end of the year (21-21.3%), it is prepared to contemplate a rate rise to 23% at December’s meeting (the final one of the year).
  • The Central Bank now believes that inflation in 2024 will be 8-8.5% (compared with its previous forecast of 6.5-7%). This wasn’t a surprise for economists, following 11.1% seasonally adjusted price growth in the third quarter. Inflationary expectations, which the bank monitors closely, went up from 12.5% to 13.4% across the entire range of respondents in the most recent October survey.
  • Despite sky high rates, the regulator also has higher expectations for lending growth: from 10-15% to 17-20% in the corporate sector, and from 10-15% to 12-15% for consumer borrowing. Corporate loans increased by 2% month-on-month in September, according to the Central Bank. And Over the nine months of 2024 they were up 14.5%. Given the high rate, businesses prefer loans at floating rates rather than fixed rates. At the same time, subsidized loans make up about 8% of GDP — roughly the same as government military spending. Of course, it’s worth remembering that the defense sector is one of the biggest preferential borrowers. This all illustrates the “prisoner’s dilemma” – a principle from game theory in which, using uncoordinated strategies, the best decision for one individual leads to a suboptimal outcome for the entire group, weakening the collective position.
  • Of course, the danger of keeping interest rates high for a long period of time is that debt-laden enterprises sensitive to interest rates will be unable to refinance their loans and will go bankrupt.
  • At the same time, the government is increasing spending, including via subsidies on business loans, which is fueling inflation. The result is a strange phenomenon: the Central Bank, responsible for inflation, needs to raise interest rates to slow price increases. But government spending is making inflation worse.


For reference, the German economy during world war 2.

images




Notice how it was growing even when it was losing the war? That’s because defense spending and arms production raises GDP. It’s not a true indicator of economic health and if any western country was walking around with 21% interest rates, 8.5% inflation and a million caskets for 10 miles of empty villages there would be rioting in the streets.


We in the west are just lucky Russia and their allies are such dumbassss. :mjlol:

The article provided was from a western source so who do you have a gripe with here ?

I’m in Germany and none of the points I brought up before the article were addressed.

Supporting Ukraine has been disastrous for the U.K. and Germany living standards and industry but as long Raytheon and Lockheed Martin, BlackRock, Shale gas industry and the money printer go brrrrrrrrr economics are winning everything is all good.
 

Mister Terrific

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The article provided was from a western source so who do you have a gripe with here ?

I’m in Germany and none of the points I brought up before the article were addressed.

Supporting Ukraine has been disastrous for the U.K. and Germany living standards and industry but as long Raytheon and Lockheed Martin, BlackRock, Shale gas industry and the money printer go brrrrrrrrr economics are winning everything is all good.
The gripe is you posting misinformation and not understanding economics. You want to argue the points about why having 8.5% inflation and 21% interest rates is going to kill a country that is already set to lose a quarter of its population due to low birth rates or do you want to continue to post kremlin babble?
 

Cynic

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The gripe is you posting misinformation and not understanding economics. You want to argue the points about why having 8.5% inflation and 21% interest rates is going to kill a country that is already set to lose a quarter of its population due to low birth rates or do you want to continue to post kremlin babble?
I posted an article on the Russian economy growing inspite of sanctions which don’t benefit Europe and you babble about American versus Russian consumer resilience. Now are you going to address this :

Can you explain why having 5 million Ukrainians refugees on welfare is good for Western Europe ?

Why paying 4X for American shale gas is a win for Western Europe ?

How buying Russian oil at an Indian premium is a win for Western Europe ?

Why Nordstream II blowing up and Ukraine hiding the culprits benefits Germany perhaps ?

How black rock taking the lead in restructuring Ukrainian debt benefits Western Europe ?

How does Volkswagen shutting down factories due to energy prices benefit Germany ?

It seems Western Europe is getting a raw deal here but maybe like the constant Middle East invasions and the banking crisis of 08 you can enlighten me on how US policies are benefiting its “western allies”
 

Mister Terrific

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I posted an article on the Russian economy growing inspite of sanctions and how this policy is impacting Europe and you babble about American versus Russian consumer resilience. Now are you going to address this :

You posted an article, basically a headline, that didn’t tell the whole story then walked away like you said something important because you are a kremlin agent that hates the west. And I educated you on how economics actually works.

For instance
“Despite months of heavy Russian attacks on its energy facilities, Ukraine’s economy is expected to grow by 3.0 per cent in 2024 and 4.7 per cent in 2025, according to a report published today by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD).”


Now would we say Ukraines economy is all roses and daffodils? No. But unlike you or a they aren’t running a 21% interest rates and 8.5% inflation and can look forward to western investment by the billions. What do you Orcs have to look forward to?


Can you explain why having 5 million Ukrainians refugees on welfare is good for Western Europe ?
I don’t understand this? Are you saying it’s someone’s fault that Russia decided to reduce a quarter of Ukraine to ashes and then deport the survivors to Russian camps? Are you ok orc?

How buying Russian gas at an Indian premium is a win for Western Europe ?
It’s great for Europe.The west learning to ditch energy reliance on genocidal dictatorships is good actually. If Germany had disconnected from Russia when the US told them we would be in any even better position today.

The west is intelligent and innovative, you orcs aren’t. We will survive you won’t.

It seems Western Europe is getting a raw deal here but maybe like the constant Middle East invasions and the banking crisis of 08 you can enlighten me on how US policies are benefiting its “western allies”

The overwhelming majority of UK and Germany are in favor of current measures against Russia including greater military spending to counter Russia and military assistance to Ukraine



You see the majority of the west knows what you really are. You ain’t fooling nobody. Time is going to run out soon for you. :mjgrin:
 

ADevilYouKhow

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US needs to back that up














Lmao at this one ^

 
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ADevilYouKhow

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Cynic

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You posted an article, basically a headline, that didn’t tell the whole story then walked away like you said something important because you are a kremlin agent that hates the west. And I educated you on how economics actually works.

For instance


Now would we say Ukraines economy is all roses and daffodils? No. But unlike you or a they aren’t running a 21% interest rates and 8.5% inflation and can look forward to western investment by the billions. What do you Orcs have to look forward to?



I don’t understand this? Are you saying it’s someone’s fault that Russia decided to reduce a quarter of Ukraine to ashes and then deport the survivors to Russian camps? Are you ok orc?


It’s great for Europe.The west learning to ditch energy reliance on genocidal dictatorships is good actually. If Germany had disconnected from Russia when the US told them we would be in any even better position today.

The west is intelligent and innovative, you orcs aren’t. We will survive you won’t.



The overwhelming majority of UK and Germany are in favor of current measures against Russia including greater military spending to counter Russia and military assistance to Ukraine



You see the majority of the west knows what you really are. You ain’t fooling nobody. Time is going to run out soon for you. :mjgrin:
I posted an article - that showed growth in spite of sanctions and Western Europe suffering for it. That's it.
This Dunning kruger name calling is unnecessary - I'm anti-foreign lobby interests. Get it ?

This narrative about genocidal dictatorships falls apart with Benjamin Netanhyu.

Let me be very clear - this isn't about "the west" - this is the military industry complec continually f^cking over it's allies
with zero fukks given since the war in Iraq.

You really expected Germany to risk a Bavarian revolt because some foreign lobbyist says so ? :gucci:

If the EU was displacing millions of migrants on american borders, the dollar fell by 60%, Ford shut down and you had
to pay 4x the price of energy - I doubt you'd be on the same type of energy.

This insular recalcitrant solipsism where you actively IGNORE western european plight is expected.
You'd rather spin this west vs them and get personal than accept that Washington has been f*cking over the EU for decades.
 

Mister Terrific

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I posted an article - that showed growth in spite of sanctions and Western Europe suffering for it. That's it.
This Dunning kruger name calling is unnecessary - I'm anti-foreign lobby interests. Get it ?
And I explains why it’s growing. You can either take this free education in economics or continue to be a Russian asset. Your choice.


Russia’s central bank raised the cost of borrowing in the country to its highest level in more than two decades on Friday in an effort to slow inflation that is being fueled by record military spending and recruitment.

The central bank raised Russia’s benchmark interest rate to 21 percent during its regular monetary policy meeting. That makes borrowing in the country even more expensive than at the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, when the central bank sharply increased interest rates to calm the economy. The effective cost of borrowing in Russia is now the highest since 2003.

It was the third increase in a row, and Elvira Nabiullina, the central bank’s president, said that interest rates could rise further later this year.

“We don’t see inflationary pressures slowing down,” Ms. Nabiullina, who maintains some policy independence from the Kremlin, told reporters after announcing the new rate.

The increase underscores the challenges that Ms. Nabiullina faces as she tries to cool inflation, which she forecasts will average 8.8 percent this year. At that level, prices are rising more than twice as quickly as the central bank considers healthy for the Russian economy.

Ms. Nabiullina implicitly blamed Russia’s war in Ukraine for the continued price increases. She said the Kremlin’s decision to raise spending by $15.5 billion next year, mostly to cover war-related costs, was overheating the economy and feeding inflation.

In particular, she said, high government spending blunts the central bank’s main tool for controlling inflation — setting interest rates. This is because companies that receive military contracts are willing to take out loans at any cost to meet production deadlines.

Labor shortages resulting from military recruitment during the war have also fueled inflation.

The war has left hundreds of thousands of Russian men dead or seriously injured, according to Western intelligence agencies. Hundreds of thousands more have left the country to avoid being called up. And hundreds of thousands of others have joined the army to benefit from ever-rising payouts, leaving the civilian economy deprived of workers.




Western Europe isn’t suffering. It doesn’t have 21% interest rates and 8.8% inflation. It’s prospering quite nicely with the highest standards of living in the world.

Meanwhile in your mother Russia
images



As I point out. Most Europeans are in favor of squeezing Russias as many of their people remember what it was like being under the boot of the Soviet Union and more the genocidal conquest that followed the Soviet Army after World War Two and the mass rape of destruction that occurred

images


Meanwhile European view Russia as already being in conflict


images


This war will be over in a couple more years and Russia will be cooked for ever. Small price to pay.

This narrative about genocidal dictatorships falls apart with Benjamin Netanhyu.

:skip:

Let me be very clear - this isn't about "the west" - this is the military industry complec continually f^cking over it's allies

America did not make Russia invade its neighbor, kill thousands of people, abduct thousands of children, behead pows on camera, bomb Donbas into a wasteland and send hundreds of thousands of its children to their deaths over a few miles of villages.

I’m sure the US state department is happy Russia decided to commit national suicide as the US is having unprecedented growth and the strongest economy in the world but they aren’t responsible for you Orcs being retarded. :mjlol:


The US isn’t fukking over its allies. Europe will choose the US 9 times outta 10 because the US brought unprecedented prosperity to the western world. It’s why you are in Germany and not Russia.

This insular recalcitrant solipsism where you actively IGNORE western european plight is expected.
You'd rather spin this west vs them and get personal than accept that Washington has been f*cking over the EU for decades.
Orc babble. The US literally covers Europes defense spending and guarantees its borders. It’s the most fortuitous relationship on the planet.
 

ADevilYouKhow

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Be forced to import butter from The UAE Russian Crehs

:mjlol:





 

bnew

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Be forced to import butter from The UAE Russian Crehs

:mjlol:




Debt trap


He said clients tended to pay 30%-40% of an order's value in advance, leaving the firm to borrow the rest.

That debt, he said, was so expensive that it canceled out any profit on the work.

"If we continue to work like this, then most of our enterprises will go bankrupt," he said.

A few days after he spoke, Russia's central bank hiked its main interest rate further still, from 19% to 21%.

Rostec is not alone in its predicament, economic analysts told Business Insider.

Rising interest rates and export bans were eroding Russian defense companies' profits across the board, they said, making the Russian state the only guarantor of revenues.

:mjlol:
 
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